ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Tennessee in 2023

Tennessee football is rearing up for another season of football and have a pretty unique 12-game schedule with marquee SEC rivalries as well as some non-conference matchups that you don’t see everyday.

Ahead of opening kick-off, ESPN’s FPI went through each and every one of Tennessee’s 12 regular season games and assigned a percentage chance that the Volunteers win. In total, they’re majority favorites to come out on top in nine contests, compared to just three where the opponent is favored.

To see which games ESPN has the Vols winning and losing, go ahead and look below:

Sept. 2: Virginia (Nashville) — 87.5% chance of win

This contest is far from Bristol, where these two border, and the Cavaliers are going deep into the heart of their neighbor state to face what’s certain to be an overwhelmingly pro-Volunteer crowd, even though the game is technically at a neutral site.

Wherever the game is played, it’s doubtful UVA will offer much resistance to a powerful Tennessee. The Cavs comes off a 3-7 season in head coach Tony Elliott’s first run and lost their leading passer and rusher in multi-talented QB Brennan Armstrong. Plus, they also lost their three leading receivers. It’s going to be difficult for Virginia to keep pace offensively.

Sept. 9: Austin Peay (home) — 98.4% chance of win

According to ESPN analytics, the Week 2 contest against Austin Peay is the easiest game on the schedule for Tennessee. Coming off a victory over Virginia and heading home to a sold-out crowd for the home opener, UT should be amped no matter the opponent.

Sorry to the Governors, who are going to be a fly on Tennessee’s window in Week 2. They’d probably lose the game no matter what week it’s played, but in the home opener, the crowd, nor the players or coaches, will be overlooking this game.

Sept. 16: Florida (away) — 48.9% chance of win

No matter the personnel on the other sideline, a trip to The Swamp is a challenge, for sure. Florida is still working its way back into relevancy, and losing Anthony Richardson at quarterback hasn’t helped. That said, ESPN likes the Gators to bite the Volunteers in the rear this year.

It goes without saying this will be Tennessee’s first true road test, which will be a good opportunity to see how Joe Milton handles the road pressure, since those UF fans will be raucous. But it’s often the case, especially in the SEC, that a true road environment gives teams trouble the first time they face one. In Gainesville, that’ll be 100,000 fans aiming for the upset.

Sept. 23: UTSA (home) — 86.9% chance of win

Tennessee definitely didn’t expect to welcome one of the strongest lower-conference teams in the nation to Neyland Stadium when they inked this game vs. UTSA back in January 2021. But here we are. The Roadrunners put up 12-2 and 11-3 records in two seasons since signing that deal and return 16 starters across their offense and defense for 2023.

Quarterback Frank Harris threw for more than 4,000 and rushed for 700+ in ’22 and returns for a seventh year at the college level. They lost their top receiver to Ole Miss, but do get back some weapons in Joshua Cephus (985 yards in ’22) and De’Corian Clark (741), along with top RB Kevorian Barnes, who gained 857 yards on the ground a year ago. Defensively, there’s a menace to quarterbacks everywhere in Trey Moore, who had eight sacks, nine tackles for loss and six pass breakups a year ago off the edge. This team is nasty and may give UT some fits.

Sept. 30: South Carolina (home) — 77.9% chance of win

Tennessee gave its worst performance of the year against the Gamecocks last fall, wilting to a 63-38 defeat in Columbia late in the season. This time, South Carolina comes to the Volunteers and much earlier in the season, so there’s no excuse for another result like 2022.

While Spencer Rattler is back along with his top receiver, Juice Wells, Carolina is looking at a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is far from a strength, while there are mostly new playmakers aside from Wells, plus a new OC in Dowell Loggains. Defensively, just four starters return off a unit that wasn’t great to begin with. Again, Vols should take care of business here.

Oct. 14: Texas A&M (home) — 66.3% chance of win

Most college football pundits are calling for a big improvement on the football field in College Station. For Jimbo Fisher’s well being, it needs to happen, and a win over Tennessee in Knoxville early in the year could let the country know that the rumors were true: A&M is back.

The Aggies must be taken seriously with 20 of 22 starters back on offense and defense with plenty of four- and five-star talents littered throughout that list. The QB situation should be more stable after a worst-case scenario a year ago. Plus, the receiver corps is strong and a good defense in ’22 features 10 returning starters. Suffice to say, A&M will pose a threat.

Oct. 21: Alabama (away) — 15.2% chance of win

The lowest-odds game on the Volunteer schedule is not the two-time champs, but instead bitter rival Alabama, who UT toppled in Knoxville last fall but will now face on the road. The Crimson Tide are actually receiving less preseason love than normal but the ESPN machine heavily favors them in the matchup with Tennessee this year.

The Tide, while underwhelming in 2022 and losing a lot of that group, remain among the most talented programs in the country. They have a terrific returning WR duo in Ja’Corey Brooks and Jermaine Burton while boasting one of the nation’s best tackles in JC Latham. Then on defense, cornerbacks Kool-Aid MicKinstry and Terrion Arnold are terrific, and Dallas Turner could be the star up front.

Oct. 28: Kentucky (away) — 53.1% chance of win

This prediction of essentially a coin flip between the ‘Cats and Vols may raise the eyebrows of Tennessee fans, who are used to dominating the rivalry vs. Kentucky, and gave the team in blue and white a big whupping in Neyland last fall. But Kentucky should be much improved.

The offensive line was dreadful a year ago and ought to be back on track this fall. Plus, quarterback play is liable to get even better, not worse, after first-round pick Will Levis left behind an injury-riddled senior season. Then, on defense, Kentucky had a solid year and finished top-25 again under Brad White’s leadership. It could very well come down to the final play again in Lexington.

Nov. 4: UConn (home) — 96.1% chance of win

The second-easiest game on the Tennessee schedules comes against the Huskies of UConn. Don’t let a 96% chance of victory fool you, though, because UConn isn’t quite as bad as their reputation may suggest. They did start 1-4 last fall with some brutal beatdowns, but they responded to finish 6-6 and make a bowl, recording some respectable wins along the way.

The Huskies beat a good Fresno State club at home, then scorched FIU on the road for a 33-12 victory. They also took care of their northeast competition with three straight wins vs. Boston College, Massachusetts and a ranked Liberty squad. Seventeen starters return this season, including at QB as well as its leading rusher and lead tackler.

Nov. 11: Missouri (away) — 63.8% chance of win

Missouri got thumped pretty bad by Tennessee in Neyland last year, 66-24, but were otherwise a pretty feisty group in the SEC East, especially on defense. The Tigers’ three best pass rushers are gone after that was a strength in ’22, however, those are the only three of their 13 leading tacklers they lose.

On offense, Brady Cook returns at QB after an alright year, while the loss of top receiver Dominic Lovett to rival Georgia via the portal really stings. If he returned, the trio of he, Luther Burden and Mookie Cooper could have been the SEC’s best. Alas, it’ll just be the latter two who try to match strides with the Vols in what Mizzou hopes is a muddy and low-scoring affair.

Nov. 18: Georgia (home) — 25.4% chance of win

Tennessee hasn’t upended Georgia since the first year of the Kirby Smart era and 2023 is their last chance to do so before these schools cease to be yearly divisional rivals. You can’t let the annual rivalry end on a seven-game skid, and now is the opportunity to snap the streak.

Tennessee is at home, has the more established quarterback, and played the Bulldogs better than most in 2022, when they battled the eventual champs between the hedges before losing by two scores. If Joe Milton wants to create his own Hooker-like legacy, winning this game would be a nice start.

Nov. 25: Vanderbilt (home) — 88.6% chance of win

The SEC contest the Volunteers have the best chance at winning, no surprise, comes against intra-state rival Vanderbilt. Tennessee rides a four-game winning streak into this year’s bout and will be big favorites to make it five. But let’s note that the ‘Dores have had sneaky success vs. the orange giant in the last decade or so, winning five of the last 11 matchups.

Clark Lea’s crusade to get Vanderbilt football to national relevancy is full steam ahead and he’s building with a decent offensive line, a promising sophomore quarterback and a respectable level of talent throughout the roster. The next step for their program could start with going a few miles east and beating the Vols on their home field. 11.4% chance of that happening, per ESPN.

Final Record: 9-3

Tennessee is looking at a schedule full of games they’ll likely be favorites in, even if they aren’t projected to blow as many teams out as they did last fall. Particularly, contests against SEC East rivals Kentucky and Florida are tough and listed as toss-ups, while games vs. Missouri and Texas A&M could be dangerous too. And don’t forget about UTSA, a new AAC club that’s an established superpower at the lower level.