ESPN’s FPI rankings predict every Tennessee football game this season

Tennessee football is projected to finish 6.6-5.4 this season, according to ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Volunteers enter coach Josh Heupel’s first season ranked No. 47 in the country and are predicted to finish near the bottom of the SEC East after playing the No. 17 ranked strength of schedule. Tennessee is the favorite in just six games this season with a 0.0% chance of going undefeated.

The Volunteers enter the season better chance of losing to Tennessee Tech than winning the conference. The 0.2% chance to win the conference is low, even compared to the 0.7% chance of losing to an FCS school. Tennessee is coming off a 3-7 record with wins over Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. With the return of non-conference games, the Volunteers look to become bowl eligible.

Here is a look at Tennessee’s chances in every game this season:

Bowling Green: Tennessee has a 97.6% chance of beating Bowling Green in the season opener. Bowling Green ranks No. 128 in the country with an FPI rating of -23.3.

Pittsburgh: The Volunteers have just a 51.9% chance to win at home against Pittsburgh. The Panthers rank No. 32 in the country.

Tennessee Tech: Tennessee has a 99.3% chance to beat Tennessee Tech. The FPI does not rank FCS opponents.

at Florida: The Volunteers have just a 16.2% chance to beat Florida on the road. Tennessee heads to Gainesville for its second-toughest game this season.

at Missouri: Tennessee has a 40.9% chance to win over Missouri on the road. The Tigers rank one spot ahead of Tennessee in the FPI rankings.

South Carolina: The Volunteers have a 68.8% chance to beat South Carolina. Tennessee bounces back from two projected losses with a home game against a division opponent.

Ole Miss: Tennessee has just a 41.8% chance of winning over Ole Miss at home. This is the first of two home losses projected for Tennessee.

at Alabama: The Volunteers have a minuscule 4.4% chance of beating Alabama on the road. This game is likely what drives Tennessee’s undefeated season hopes to 0.0%.

at Kentucky: Tennessee has a 41.4% chance against Kentucky this year. Even off a bye week, Tennessee is not favored in its final road game.

Georgia: The Volunteers have an 18.2% chance of beating Georgia at home. Georgia is Tennessee’s second-toughest opponent and fourth in the top 25.

South Alabama: Tennessee has a 93.1% chance of beating South Alabama. This is Tennessee’s third game against sub-100 or unranked competition, raising the chances of a winning season.

Vanderbilt: The Volunteers have an 87.4% chance against in-state rivals Vanderbilt. The Commodores are Tennessee’s fourth opponent with a negative FPI rating.

Conclusion:

Tennessee plays a tough schedule with few breaks in the action. The Volunteers face a four-week stretch where they will not be favored, enough to break down any team. To reach the bowl season, Tennessee will need to take care of business in the non-conference games and look to win SEC games at home.