Jay Bilas evaluates Tennessee's chances to make Final Four

Despite its success over the years under Rick Barnes, Tennessee enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament in search of its first Final Four appearance in program history. Jay Bilas believes that could change in the next couple of weeks.

The Vols earned a No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region and find themselves with a favorable path out. They face Wofford in the first round with a potential second round matchup against either UCLA or Utah State, both of which Bilas thinks they are capable of beating.

Sure, No. 1 seed Houston poses a big threat if the Cougars are to reach the Elite Eight, where Tennessee would face them. But with a veteran like point guard Zakai Zeigler and a scorer like Chaz Lanier, the Vols stand a real shot.

“I like their chances,” Bilas said Monday on The Paul Finebaum Show. “They would have to get through Houston if Houston holds serve there. But the draw that they have to start, I think they are significantly better than UCLA.

“Kentucky is banged up. They don’t have Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler’s still dealing with a shoulder injury. I understand that the shoulder that he’s dealing with now is not the underlying shoulder problem he’s had throughout the season, but still, he’s been dealing with that for a long time. If they’re compromised in that fashion, I favor Tennessee even though Kentucky beat ‘em twice this past year.”

Tennessee would run into Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen if both teams win their first two games. The Wildcats got the better of the Vols in two matchups this season, but perhaps the third time will be the charm.

Tennessee also finished runner up in the SEC Tournament in a year where most consider the conference to be the best in the sport. Bilas even admitted that he is surprised Barnes hasn’t reached a Final Four with the Vols yet, pointing to some tough breaks they received in previous years.

“The Final Four thing, especially under Rick Barnes, he’s had a couple bad beats,” he said. “I thought last year they had a great chance to get to the Final Four. Kind of like St. John’s, a team that I would have felt good about in any other region except UConn’s region. They were in Purdue’s region. They had played Purdue earlier in the season. You gotta deal with 7-4 Zach Edey. They played them in Maui and they played them really tough in the Elite Eight. But that was a Final Four worthy team that just ran into one of the two best teams in the country last year.

“But I like their chances. I think they can score. The problem they had in the tournament in the final against Florida was their big guys got outplayed. I thought the game was officiated very much like an NCAA Tournament game. Tennessee found itself in foul trouble and that’s something they’re gonna have to adjust to when they get to the tournament.”

We’ll see whether Tennessee can prove Bilas right with a deep NCAA Tournament run to reach the Final Four. It will open up playing against Wofford at 6:50 p.m. ET on Thursday.