Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Tennessee Volunteers in 2024

The 2024 season is looking like it’s going to be an exciting one for the Tennessee Volunteers. It’s also one in which head coach Josh Heupel knows there’s going to be high expectations for the Volunteers.

Taking a look at the upcoming season, Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire broke down the Volunteers’ season during an episode of Andy Staples On3. There, they shared what they felt the win total ceiling and floor were going to be for Tennessee in 2024.

In the case of Staples and Bellaire, both of them feel like this is going to be an excellent season for Tennessee, predicting that this year’s team is capable of making the College Football Playoff.

CEILING: College Football Playoff

There’s going to be a very high ceiling on the Tennessee Volunteers this season, with Andy Staples arguing that he thinks the Volunteers could make their first trip to the College Football Playoff in 2024. That’s in no small part due to a relatively manageable schedule compared to their peers.

“Very intriguing team,” Andy Staples said. “Tennessee is one of these. Ole Miss is one of these. I explain to people, as divisions go away in these various leagues, like the Big Ten and the SEC, schedule draw means a lot. Tennessee’s schedule draw is not Georgia‘s schedule draw, it’s not Florida‘s schedule draw. It is much closer to Ole Miss’ schedule draw. Therefore, I am making Tennessee’s ceiling a Playoff berth.”

Ultimately, Cody Bellaire agreed that a potential Playoff run is on the table for Tennessee. That’s largely because of what Nico Iamaleava and the rest of the offense is capable of doing in 2024.

“Yes, and you know what helps a Playoff run? Having a generational quarterback. Nico Iamaleava has a chance to bring Tennessee back into the Playoff conversation and light up the scoreboard like we saw when Hendon Hooker was taking snaps for the Vols. He was the number one player in the country for On3 for a reason. He has elite arm talent. He’s a dynamic athlete. He’s got all the tools that Josh Heupel is looking for at the quarterback position,” Bellaire said.

“Plus, they were able to get him some help via the portal, bringing in starting left tackle Zalance Heard from LSU, a dynamic wideout in Chris Brazzell from Tulane. He was one of the most sought-after receivers in the country, and they gave him a nice little safety net at the tight end position in Holden Staes from Notre Dame. I think this offense is going to look a lot more similar to the one we’re used to seeing from Josh Heupel, and I think that starts with Nico Iamaleava. Yes, he’s a baby. He’s gonna have some growing pains, but if there’s anyone who was built for it and if there’s anyone who can help cater him to making less mistakes, it’s Josh Heupel and this Tennessee offense.”

Tennessee fans got an idea of what Nico Iamaleava was capable of in last season’s Citrus Bowl, winning 35-0 on the back of his excellent performance. He’s talented and can do things, like run the read option, that Joe Milton wasn’t as comfortable doing.

Cody Bellaire added that on defense, Tennessee has talented players. More importantly, with how good the offense should be, the defense doesn’t need to be great.

“We talk about this offense and Tennessee and that’s obviously gonna be a huge piece of the puzzle moving forward for them this season, but we haven’t mentioned the best player on this team, let alone the best player in the country in James Pearce, getting after the quarterback,” Bellaire said. “This defense just needs to get Nico back on the field… That’s the whole deal. For this defense, the goal is just to bend but don’t break. Get that offense back on the field. Cause some turnovers. Give the offense some short fields because if you do that there’s no other option but for Tennessee to score. So, I think Tennessee might have themselves in a few shootouts this year, but they have the offense to make that happen and win those types of games.”

Ultimately, that all equates to a record around 10-2 or 11-1, with the games against Oklahoma, Georgia, and Alabama being key. In the expanded Playoff, that should lead to the Volunteers making a deep run.

FLOOR: 8-4

Both Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire are clearly excited for what Tennessee could be this season. Because of that, they set the Volunteers’ floor for 2024 at 8-4.

“Their floor? I think it’s probably 8-4,” Staples said.

For his part, Cody Bellaire agreed and explained that he’s confident in the team, even with its youth at the quarterback position.

“I agree. I just think Josh Heupel brings so much continuity to this offense,” Bellaire said. “Yes, it’s Nico. Yes, he’s getting his feet wet as a starter, but Josh Heupel, especially with the communication they’re able to have in this offense, and his ability to improvise and make things happen and just be himself. I don’t see them making a ton of mistakes offensively, even for a young quarterback.”

On top of all that, the schedule has fewer places to get tripped up than it did last season. So, it’s easy for Andy Staples to see a high win total being the team’s floor.

“I think they’re going to be very interesting to watch and Nico is going to change the dynamics of that offense so much. They don’t have a game like Missouri last year. That’s what they avoid,” Staples said. “That’s probably not gonna happen. You look at the schedule, who would do that to them? Maybe an Oklahoma would do that to them in Norman, but it won’t happen this year because they’re just not gonna be that type of team that can’t score. Like they won’t have those games.”