Phil Steele’s Tennessee forecast keeps expectations low

Phil Steele ranks Tennessee football No. 13 in the SEC going into Josh Heupel’s first season. After a mass exodus to the transfer portal, the new staff has put the pieces together and is set to open as favorites in up to five games this season. With Bowling Green, Pittsburgh and Tennessee Tech coming to Knoxville in the opening weeks, Tennessee’s forecast could change with quick buy-in from the players, according to Steele. A bowl berth would be a moderate success in year one.

“They are the least experienced team in the SEC with just 12 returning starters and are learning new schemes on both offense and defense,” Steele wrote in his 2021 Tennessee forecast.

Offense

Michigan transfer Joe Milton and Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker will battle with Harrison Bailey and Brian Maurer for snaps at quarterback. Steele gives the edge to Milton, who played six games for Michigan last season, finishing with 1,077 yards and four touchdowns. Tennessee started strong in 2020, averaging 33 points per game over the first two games. However, the Volunteers only averaged 15.2 over the next seven games. The departure of running backs Ty Chandler and Eric Gray leaves sophomore Tiyon Evans at the top of the depth chart. Velus Jones at wide receiver with JaVonta Payton transferring from Mississippi State. The offensive line is young, featuring two freshmen and no seniors upfront.

Defense

The Tennessee defense retained eight starters from 2019 to 2020 but gave up 30.1 points per game. Tennessee’s forecast is hurt by three losses from the top six tacklers but seven starters return in 2021. The Volunteers only seniors in the starting lineup come on the defensive line. The departures Henry To’o To’o, Quavaris Crouch and others at linebacker have provided opportunities for new players to step up. Alontae Taylor returns the defensive backfield with Jaylen McCollough and Trevon Flowers.

Special Teams

Tennessee’s special teams unit ranked in the top 35 for six consecutive years before 2020. After dropping to No. 64 last season, the team hopes to get back to the top in 2021. Jones returns as the primary kick returner and punter Paxton Brooks returns. USC transfer kicker Chase McGrath arrives to take over the vacant position with hopes of helping Tennessee to the top of the board.

Coaches

Josh Heupel joins Tennessee after three years at UCF and brings in a new set of coordinators with him. Former UCF co-offensive coordinator Alex Golesh takes over the offense while former Penn State co-defensive coordinator Tim Banks runs the defense. Mike Ekeler leaves North Texas to take over the special teams position.