Tennessee Volunteers Football: Phil Steele 2025 Forecast

Coming off the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff appearance, things were looking up for the Tennessee Volunteers entering the 2025 offseason. Rising redshirt sophomore Nico Iamaleava was back and primed to build upon his rollercoaster first season as the Vols’ starting quarterback.

Until he wasn’t, of course. Iamaleava abruptly, and rather infamously, left the Tennessee program and entered the NCAA Transfer Portal one day after skipping the team’s final practice ahead of its annual Spring game due to a NIL renegotiation dispute. Iamaleava ultimately signed with UCLA, prompting then-Bruins QB and former Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar to re-enter the portal before opting to replace Iamaleava in Knoxville. It was effectively the NCAA’s first transfer trade.

Given Tennessee’s offseason of turmoil, and the clear uncertainty at quarterback, the expected preseason hype for a defending Playoff team — even one that lost 42-17 to eventual national champion Ohio State in the first round — has been noticibly muted. With all that in mind, veteran college football expert Phil Steele released his evaluation of the Vols’ 2025 outlook inside his annual College Football 25 Preview magazine.

Offense

As mentioned above, and in thousands of headlines earlier this Spring, Tennessee enters the 2025 with a brand-new quarterback in Aguilar, a two-year starter at App State who threw for 3,757 yards on 64-percent passing and 33 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 2024. It’s that success — which was better than Iamaleava’s 2024 numbers — that gives Steele confidence the Vol offense can still match last season’s 35.7 points-per-game average scoring mark in 2025.

Steele: “This year they unexpectedly lost their QB at the end of spring, they lose their school record rush RB (Dylan Sampson), top 3 WRs and 4 starting (offensive linemen). Normally I would call for a large drop (in offensive production), but they will be close to last year’s numbers.”

Defense

Tennessee’s defense was a work-in-progress throughout 2024 while a mostly-inexperienced defensive front seven developed confidence and consistency together. It’s because of those now-experienced returners that Steele doesn’t expect much of a drop-off despite the loss of sack leader James Pearce Jr. After limiting opponents to less than 14 ppg during the regular season, Vols defense returns three of its Top 6 leading tacklers, including junior LB Arion Carter and sophomore STAR Boo Carter.

Steele: “This year they lose a #1 and #2 (defensvie contributor) but still return 8 starters and remain strong. It will be tough to match last year’s numbers, but DC Tim Banks has an improved back (seven) and the LBs drive the bus of this defense.”

Phil Steele’s 2025 Forecast

Although Steele isn’t as confident about Tennessee as he was in 2022, when he predicted the Vols would be Georgia‘s biggest challenger that season, the longtime CFP expert sees plenty of reason for hope in 2025. And that hope starts with the Vols’ favorable SEC schedule, including once again avoiding a trio of fellow SEC contenders in Texas, Ole Miss and LSU for the second year in a row.

Steele: “Last year they drew the 3rd easiest schedule in the SEC, avoiding Texas, Ole Miss and LSU, and I said could top ’23’s 9-win total if that back (seven) on defense matured quickly. It did as the Vols were improved defensively, allowing just 13.9 ppg and 278 ypg in the regular season. QB Nico Iamaleava had his ups and downs as most first-year starters do, but they were 9-1 (#4 coaches poll) and led Georgia on the road 10-0. They lost that, but at 10-2 make the Playoff and their fans traveled well to Columus, but they lost 42-17. Nico left at the end of spring and the lose some star power from last year, so will be under the radar, but do face the 2nd easiest SEC schedule avoiding the same (three) teams. Tennessee is a legitimate Playoff contender once again.”