ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for Texas A&M in 2023

A monumental season of football for Texas A&M begins shortly. But first, let’s take a look at which games ESPN’s FPI has the Aggies winning vs. losing.

Each year, the FPI — Football Power Index — uses various metrics to gauge which teams are the strongest on paper. It’s no bible when it comes to college football predictions, but the preseason rankings tend to bear out somewhat similarly during the regular season and at least provide a guide who’s likely to contend for the national title.

So below, you can take a look at Texas A&M’s percentage chance to win each of their 12 regular season games and the predicted final record, according to ESPN’s FPI:

Sept. 2: New Mexico (home) — 96.7% chance of win

You’d be hard-pressed to find a worse record from an FBS program over the last five years than the Lobos. UNM’s last season of more than three wins came in 2016, when they tripled that total with nine. Little did New Mexico know that it would take them another four seasons to win their next nine games, with three wins in ’17 and ’18, and then two in ’19 and ’20.

To make matters worse, the Lobos had a good defensive coordinator in Rocky Long, but Dino Babers swiped him away to coach the defense at Syracuse. So now, New Mexico replaces a great DC and lost nine of their 11 starters on defense. Meanwhile, the offense scored just 13 points per game, failed to average 230 yards of production and didn’t have any QB record 1,000 passing yards. They lost to Air Force 35-3 last year and A&M ought to win by at least as much, right?

Sept. 9: Miami FL (away) — 51% chance of win

The Hurricanes were a rebuilding football team in 2022 and there’s no way around it. Them and Texas A&M both had disappointing seasons a year ago, and A&M actually got the win over Miami in College Station last season in a 17-9 slugfest.

That was par for the course for an anemic ‘Canes offense, which mustered just 23 points per game despite having a starting QB who was on NFL Draft boards — well, at least he was to start the year. Now he’s back and so are nine of his friends that started on offense with him. Then, there’s 10 more starters back on defense, so this group should only improve.

Sept. 16: UL Monroe (home) — 96.7% chance of win

Poor Louisiana Monroe hasn’t finished a football season above-.500 since 2012, and hasn’t made a bowl game since then either, despite winning six games in 2018 and 2013. It’s been a tough decade for these Warhawks and things aren’t exactly looking up with just 10 total starters back off a 4-8 team last year.

Against power conference schools lately, the results have been a mixed bag. They got run out of the stadium against Texas and Alabama a year ago by a combined 115-17 score — and Kentucky beat them pretty good, 45-10, the year before that. However, the Hawks did give LSU a game in ’21 and took Florida State to OT in ’19.

Sept. 23: Auburn (home) — 73.4% chance of win

Auburn will be looking to lay the groundwork for future success under Hugh Freeze, and the best way to do that would be earning a victory over a rebounding A&M squad to give the new coaching staff a win to hang their hats on early in the year. On the flip-side, a home loss to Auburn in Week 4 would be catastrophe in Aggieland.

The Tigers did just settle on a starting quarterback in Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne, who beat out last year’s majority starter, Robby Ashford. Thorne started for Michigan State each of the last couple seasons and has 6,500+ career passing yards.

Sept. 30: Arkansas (away) — 60.1% chance of win

With quarterback KJ Jefferson returning to Fayetteville, Arkansas is looking to take the next step in a crowded SEC. Avenging last year’s loss to Texas A&M would do wonders for the Razorbacks, but ESPN says the chance of that is just 40%, even at home.

Overall, the Aggies are riding quite a winning streak in this series at the moment, having won ten of the last 11 matchups, including last year’s 23-21 squeaker. The Hogs did win as recent as two years ago to break a nine-year losing streak to their divisional rivals, and Sam Pittman could really use another home victory vs. A&M to set the season’s tone.

Oct. 7: Alabama (home) — 21% chance of win

After Texas A&M took Alabama to the wire in Tuscaloosa last year, you’d think the Aggies would have better than a one-in-five chance at upsetting the Crimson Tide on Kyle Field. Alas, the numbers really like Nick Saban’s group once again.

Meanwhile, personnel-wise, A&M returns far more of its players and has way less questions about its quarterbacks than ‘Bama. Sure, the Tide have banked several years worth of top-five recruiting class and can always reload, but this team and roster isn’t the impenetrable death star they were a few years ago.

Oct. 14: Tennessee (away) — 33.7% chance of win

On the road against a top-10 finisher from 2022? That’s a brutal draw for a cross-divisional opponent for Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M. Obviously, the Vols had their best season in recent memory last season, and despite some big losses, folks are expecting another explosive season of football in Knoxville.

Neyland Stadium is always a tough place to play, and a venue Texas A&M has very rarely played in, even as an SEC member. Without stars like Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt running the show, perhaps SEC teams like the Aggies are able to better foil that potent passing attack.

Oct. 28: South Carolina (home) — 78% chance of win

While Spencer Rattler is back along with his top receiver, Juice Wells, Carolina is looking at a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. The offensive line is far from a strength, while there are mostly new playmakers aside from Wells, plus a new OC in Dowell Loggains. Defensively, just four starters return off a unit that wasn’t great to begin with.

If the Aggies want to take a big step up next year, a win here is an absolute must, especially at home. Although with Rattler back there, the Gamecocks have the chance to make things dangerous.

Nov. 4: Ole Miss (away) — 41.3% chance of win

Lane Kiffin does have a quarterback situation to solve, but also has a roster that should be top-25-ranked regardless of who starts under center. And that’s thanks to a tremendously experienced offensive line, plus a wide receiver corps that blends solid returners with star mid-major transfers.

Defensively, the Rebels get back seven starters but lost the bulk of their top tacklers. The linebackers are sturdy and proven but it’s the additions in the secondary and on the defensive line that provide some unanswered questions ahead of the season.

Nov. 11: Mississippi State (home) — 71% chance of win

After the passing of Mike Leach, Mississippi State will look very different in 2023. But Will Rogers is back under center for the Bulldogs as one of the few established returners in the league at QB. Even if the offense is quite a contrast from last year, at least they have some continuity at the most important position.

Meanwhile, on defense, the Bulldogs could be sneaky strong. They were a good defense a year ago and get a load of returners back off that unit. Of course, the promotion of defensive coordinator Zach Arnett to head coach should only further emphasize MSU’s new focus on that side of the football as well.

Nov. 18: Abilene Christian (home) — 99% chance of win

After seven straight SEC contests, Texas A&M gets a breather before what could be their toughest game of the season. Before that, though, the Aggies face FCS squad Abiline Christian, who’s made more of a name for themselves on the basketball court the last couple years.

As a game, this should be a blowout. ESPN basically assigned the maximum win percentage to A&M with a 99% chance to take down the Wildcats and the line will probably get set at 30 or 40 points.

Nov. 25: LSU (away) — 22.9% chance of win

A&M wraps up their regular season and their away slate with LSU, after they’ll already have taken trips to Coral Gables, Oxford, Knoxville and Fayetteville. Whew, life in the SEC ain’t easy, is it?

The Alabama game was assigned a slightly lower win probability for A&M, but most fans would definitely have this road matchup vs. the reigning SEC west champs as the toughest test on the schedule, especially with the established talent the Tigers have on both sides of the ball. Maybe A&M can play spoiler in a second straight SEC title run for Brian Kelly’s group.

Final Record: 7.5-4.6

That’s not the total fans are going to want to see. Sure, seven wins is an upgrade over last season, but Aggie fans would hardly be pleased with simply a 7-5 season. The schedule is pretty tough and 8-4 may be considered solid success assuming Tennessee, Ole Miss and LSU are as strong as we expect. Those are all road opponents and so is Miami, who folks expect a leap from. It’s very possible the Aggies aren’t favored in any of those games, again, assuming those squads live up to their billing.

The 2023 schedule poses an extremely challenging slate for Texas A&M, and even with massive improvement, the overall record could only jump by two or three games since the schedule is so tough.