ESPN predicts every game outcome on Texas' 2024 schedule

After a successful 2023 campaign that saw them make the College Football Playoff, the expectations for the Texas Longhorns are higher than ever in 2024.

It’ll certainly be a landmark season for Texas in 2024, as they move from the Big 12 Conference to the SEC. There’s a bevy of fresh matchups, storylines and rivalries to seek their teeth into, including the highly-anticipated return of their showdown with Texas A&M.

How will it all shake out for the Longhorns? ESPN predicted each game on Texas’ schedule utilizing their Football Power Index. Here’s what their results were.

Aug. 31: Colorado State at Texas — 98.0% chance of win

Texas will open up their season with the Colorado State Rams coming to town. ESPN is giving the Longhorns a 98.0% chance of defeating their opponent in Week 1.

The Rams aren’t a team to scoff at. They have some talented players on offense that could make this one interesting, but Texas has national championship aspirations. The Longhorns better win this one, and in convincing fashion, because there’s no rest for the weary in 2024.

Sept. 7: Texas at Michigan — 65.1% chance of win

An awesome matchup will take place in Week 2, with the Longhorns traveling to Ann Arbor to face the reigning champions in Michigan. ESPN is giving Texas a 65.1% chance to defeat the Wolverines on Sept. 7.

The Wolverines have some questions, namely at quarterback, entering 2024. However, with Donovan Edwards at running back and some superstars on defense, Michigan will remain formidable, even without Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy in town.

Sept. 14: UTSA at Texas — 93.0% chance of win

This matchup has some juice. UTSA will take on Texas on Sept. 14, with ESPN giving the Longhorns a 93.0% chance of victory in that clash.

The Roadrunners would love nothing more than to upend the Longhorns’ season in what would be a massive upset. UTSA certainly has the talent to pull it off, but it’ll be one of the more shocking results of the season if they’re able to defeat Texas.

Sept. 21: UL Monroe at Texas — 98.8% chance of win

Texas will receive a slight reprieve on Sept. 21, before their schedule really picks up. UL Monroe will come to town, as ESPN is giving the Longhorns a 98.8% chance to win once again.

While UL Monroe should be improved in 2024, they’re simply not on the Longhorns’ level entering a new campaign. This should be a get-right game for Texas, before entering the meat of their schedule when the time comes.

Sept. 28: Mississippi State at Texas — 92.3% chance of win

In Texas’ first SEC conference game, Mississippi State will come to town. ESPN believes the Longhorns should handle the Bulldogs, giving Texas a 92.3% chance to win.

At quarterback, the Bulldogs will be rocking with Blake Shapen, as Jeff Lebby looks to make his mark in Starkville sooner rather than later. They might have better luck against a different opponent though, as Texas will be a team on a mission.

Oct. 12: Texas vs Oklahoma — 64.5% chance of win

The Red River Rivalry. There’s nothing quite like it in college football, and it’ll continue with both teams in the SEC. ESPN is giving Texas a 64.5% chance to avenge last season’s loss against Oklahoma with a victory in 2024.

Dillon Gabriel has moved on to Oregon, but the talented Jackson Arnold takes over at quarterback. Brent Venables has shown he’s far from intimated of the Longhorns, and that’s not going to change in the SEC.

Oct. 19: Georgia at Texas — 47.5% chance of win

There’s no rest for the weary. After what’s to be an emotional clash with Oklahoma, Texas will welcome the Georgia Bulldogs to town. ESPN believes this will be a tough one for the Longhorns, giving them a 47.5% chance to win.

After defeating Alabama last season, a victory over Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs would be iconic for the Longhorns. It might get less special as more time goes on with the Longhorns in the SEC, but in Year 1, that would be an awesome achievement.

Oct. 26: Texas at Vanderbilt — 92.4% chance of win

After seismic clashes with Oklahoma and Georgia, the Longhorns will be happy to travel to Vanderbilt to end October. Texas is being given a 92.4% chance to defeat the Commodores by ESPN.

The Commodores aren’t exactly the class of the conference, but they’re sneaky at times. Vanderbilt doesn’t have College Football Playoff aspirations like Texas, but they’d love nothing more than to welcome the Longhorns to their conference with a loss.

Nov. 9: Florida at Texas — 86.2% chance of win

The Florida Gators will take on Texas in a huge clash of two premier brands on Nov. 9. The Longhorns are projected to win by ESPN, being given an 86.2% chance to win.

Entering 2024, Graham Mertz will return to quarterback Florida, with Billy Napier hoping for some better results this season. Will it help the Gators beat Texas? That remains to be seen, but they’ll have a shot at doing so.

Nov. 16: Texas at Arkansas — 83.7% chance of win

In one of the more underrated clashes on their schedule, Texas will travel to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas on Nov. 16. The Longhorns are being given an 83.7% chance to defeat the Razorbacks by ESPN.

This will be a pivotal season for Sam Pittman. The Razorbacks have some potential, but he might need to punch above their weight class if he’s to keep his job, and a victory over Texas could change the narrative surrounding his future.

Nov. 23: Kentucky at Texas — 89.4% chance of win

Kentucky will travel to take on Texas on Nov. 23. The Wildcats will be a scrappy bunch, but ESPN is giving the Longhorns an 89.4% chance to defeat them when the time comes.

With Brock Vandagriff joining Mark Stoops‘ team, the Wildcats could be a sneaky team in the SEC. Still, Texas will need to get a victory over Kentucky if they’re to reach their ultimate goal, and having them at home will be a boon to their cause.

Nov. 30: Texas at Texas A&M — 70.8% chance of win

One of the more anticipated games of the season, Texas and Texas A&M will rekindle their age-old rivalry on Nov. 30. It’ll be an emotional affair, but ESPN has the Longhorns coming out on top, giving them a 70.8% chance to win.

Mike Elko has taken over the Aggies, and his track record has you assume Texas A&M will be better sooner rather than later. Will it be enough to defeat the Longhorns? You never know, but ESPN has Texas coming out on top.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for Texas — 10.0-2.4

As you can tell, ESPN has some confidence in the Longhorns. The final record projection for Texas is 10.0-2.4, which is one of the best in the country when it comes to ESPN’s projections for the 2024 campaign.

That would be good for an awesome Year 1 in the SEC for the Longhorns. Additionally, it’d likely be enough to get them into the College Football Playoff for the second season in a row under Steve Sarkisian.

Time will tell, but it feels like the Playoff is the Longhorns’ floor in 2024. It’ll be fascinating to see how high Texas can climb this season, and if ESPN is on the mark.