Greg McElroy analyzes Texas' chances to make the College Football Playoff in 2024

Texas just finished their best season in this era over the past decade and a half in 2023. Now, with 2024 and it’s changes approaching on The 40 Acres, Greg McElroy expects the Longhorns to maintain a lot of what we saw from them last fall.

McElroy assessed Texas’ playoff chances for next season during an episode of ‘Always College Football’ on Monday. As Steve Sarkisian heads into his fourth year in Austin, McElroy applauded him for what he has done to build that program back to where it now is.

“Steve Sarkisian, his program in general? They’re humming right now,” said McElroy.

However, it’s no guarantee to make the College Football Playoff. That’s especially so when you have plenty of production to replace from your lineup in the season prior. While McElroy noted several of their portal additions, his first concern about the Longhorns comes in regards to how they make up for losing as many contributors as they just did.

“Now, they do have to replace some really key pieces – no doubt,” said McElroy. “Where you have to find the pieces that are going to replace the wide receivers and the tight end? That’s a little bit trickier. JT Sanders, I thought, was as difficult of a matchup at tight end, outside of Brock Bowers, in the entire country. Well, he’s now gone. You also lose the other three wide receivers in (Xavier) Worthy, (Jordan) Whittington, and Adonai Mitchell.”

“The biggest thing that they’re going to have to replace, though, is not necessarily the receivers, not a piece or two here along the offensive line. It’s really on the defensive front,” McElroy continued. “Losing Byron Murphy, T’Vondre Sweat, and Jaylan Ford, their outstanding linebacker? That’s going to be difficult to replace those pieces. Really difficult.”

McElroy also had another issue in regards to the Longhorns’ slate for next season. It’s already a step up in competition with their arrival into the SEC. It’s the teams that they ended up drawing, though, that make it somewhat trickier than some might consider it to be.

“You look at their schedule too? I am curious,” said McElroy. “I think Texas is well equipped to make the jump to the SEC – I do. But I do think that the challenges that they’ll have playing an SEC schedule are going to be significant. For instance, you play at Michigan in the non-conference. Colorado State, UTSA, and UL-Monroe. That’s your non-conference.”

“Instead of Fill-In-The-Blank University? They get Kentucky. Kentucky, I think, is a tough team to play against. You get a Florida team who might not be great but Florida is a tough team to play against. You’re at Arkansas – remember what happened last time that the Texas Longhorns went to Arkansas? That’s a tricky game. That’ll be Arkansas’ Super Bowl. You know that they’ve had that one circled. Mississippi State is tricky, especially with Jeff Lebby, the new head coach of Mississippi State,” McElroy said. “I think it’s a really tricky schedule. I didn’t even mention the roadtrip to Texas A&M there in the final of the regular season.”

Still, all in all, McElroy remains high on where Texas will find themselves in ’24. His expectation is that the Longhorns will finish with double-digit wins in their first year in the Southeastern Conference. That would give them, in his mind, nearly a three in four chance of returning to the playoff in the 12-team field.

“Texas is probably looking at a 10-2, 11-1 type of year. I really believe that they’re in a really good position,” said McElroy. “Could they fall to 9-3, potentially because of the gauntlet in the SEC is a little more intense than the gauntlet that they had to run in the Big 12? Sure. That’s definitely a possibility. Still, even at 9-3, I would think that Texas has a really good chance to get to the College Football Playoff, depending on who they beat and how they beat them.”

“I’m going to put the percentage chance that they make the playoff in ’24 at 70%,” McElroy said.