Greg McElroy contemplates what Texas not winning 10 games would mean

Throughout the offseason, college football experts have been singing the praise of the Texas Longhorns, and for good reasons. Texas is expected to have one of the better offenses in college football, led by the former top prospect of the 2021 recruiting class Quinn Ewers.

With all that the Longhorns have in their favor for the 2023 season, it’s hard to see what things might look like for the program if the year goes south. That is why ESPN’s college football expert Greg McElroy took a moment to outline what it would mean for the program if the Longhorns failed to even come up with ten wins this season.

“Let’s start with their win total, 9.5. So it wouldn’t be a complete shock, especially when you take into account the fact that we haven’t seen them do that in the regular season in quite a while,” said McElroy. “They haven’t worn the target on their chest in quite a while. They also have Alabama in the non-conference. So, 10 games, even though I think that’s the floor, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility they come up short of that goal.

“Nine wins would still be a step in the right direction, in some cases. However, when you look at their roster relative to the rest of the Big 12, they have everything you possibly want. They have the quarterback situation figured. If they win 10, they’ve adequately replaced the dynamic duo of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. The receivers we know probably lived up to the expectations. The offensive line probably did a pretty good job of being able to stay together enough and stay healthy enough to keep Quinn Ewers upright.

“Defensively, they probably got pretty good along the front seven. That group appears the front seven has taken strides that the coaches had hoped for. So, I remain remarkably optimistic.”

The Texas roster is widely considered to be the best roster in the Big 12 this season, with more talent on the way once they transfer over to the SEC in future recruiting classes. Still, 10 wins and a place in the Big 12 title game is the likely floor for the Longhorns this season. But what if Texas doesn’t eclipse the double-digit win mark? What does that mean for their head coach, Steve Sarkisian?

“Now, if they come up short of the 10-win plateau, I don’t think it’s necessary to overreact and say Stark clearly can’t get it done. He clearly isn’t the right guy for the job. Look at the recruiting; look at how they’ve already landed some five stars in the upcoming class, the momentum that’s created on that part, and the interest and excitement that has led to them leaving the Big 12 of the SEC.”

Sarkisian has done a masterful job thus far in the offseason, acquiring talent in Austin, TX. However, that is only half the battle. The Longhorns’ headman needs to ensure that the talent that he is recruiting is not being underutilized on the field. And doing so would likely keep him gainfully employed at Texas. But, as McElroy sees it, the Texas head coach’s job should be safe either way, unless the Longhorns fall flat on their face this year.

“I still believe even if they come up short this year. Now they go 4-8, yeah, a little different. If they don’t win 10, I don’t necessarily think it means that they need to reset again and route to the SEC. Sark has done a good job there. They’ve grown incrementally. Now, it’s about taking the next step. And if they take the next step this year, they’re gonna have a ton of momentum going into the SEC. If they don’t, that doesn’t mean to press the reset button and completely start all over.”