Kirk Herbstreit predicts Texas will finish 'close, but not quite over' 9.5 wins

Steve Sarkisian has an opportunity to make some serious noise at Texas this year. The Longhorns were picked to win their final season in the Big 12, and Las Vegas oddsmakers set their over-under win total at 9.5.

Many have taken the Longhorns to win 10 or more games this year. However, ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit is leaning the under on Texas’ total.

During the “Herbie Awards” on Thursday, Herbstreit argued Texas will hover around that nine or 10-win mark. However, he ultimately thinks the Longhorns will fall short of the 9.5 win total considering a tough stretch in the schedule.

“You’ve got to add up, do you see three losses to go with the under?” Herbstreit said. “The game against Alabama, obviously, is a challenge. At Baylor, Oklahoma in Dallas. Tricky games like at Houston, you’ve got BYU, at TCU. That’s a challenging run. 9.5’s very, very fair. I’m going to say close, I’m going to say under. I’ll say right around nine or 10 wins. I’ll say close, but not quite over.”

Texas’ schedule is why Kirk Herbstreit is leaning the under on the win total

The Texas vs. Alabama matchup is already generating plenty of hype even with two weeks to go before kickoff in Tuscaloosa. Last year’s game was one for the books as the Crimson Tide went into Austin and snuck out a 20-19 victory. They’ll square off again this year in what could be a pivotal game on the college football calendar.

Two weeks after that game, the Longhorns will head to Baylor on Sept. 23 before returning home to take on Kansas. Then, they’ll face Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas the following week right before the bye.

After the off week, Texas will face Houston on the road Oct. 21 and come back to Austin to square off against BYU on Oct. 28. It won’t be an easy stretch, but those games are still opportunities for the Longhorns to make some noise in their final year before heading to the SEC.

This year is the first time Texas was picked tow in the Big 12 since 2009, which speaks to the high expectations around the program. With Quinn Ewers back at quarterback and some talented skill players around them, the Longhorns look like they’re preparing to make a run before leaving the Big 12.

Texas is set to open the 2023 season against Rice at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium on Sept. 2.