Breaking down the 2023 Texas season using the over/under

Oddsmakers have set the over-under for Texas at 9.5 games. A difficult number due to the expectations under Steve Sarkisian. On one hand, the Longhorns are considered favorites to win the Big 12, their last season in the conference. On the other, the schedule has difficult spots, and well… Texas has not been able to overcome it in years past.

On3’s J.D. PicKell and Andy Staples gave their opinion on the total, with the latter going first. Due to the roster Sarkisian has compromised, he sees Texas getting 10 wins. Alabama has been chalked up as a loss for the most part just due to the nature of Nick Saban‘s program.

“When you look at it on paper, they shouldn’t lose to anyone else when you look strictly at a roster to roster standpoint,” PicKell said. “I guess that’s why they play the games and we tune in every single fall Saturday.

“I’m going over. I think if they drop that one to Bama, so be it. You can drop another one. Texas should not drop more than two games based on who they have at quarterback, based on who they have at wide receiver. They’ve built to a year like this. So, I’m going over 9.5 for Texas.”

PicKell would be betting against recent history with Texas. Ten regular season wins have not occurred in Austin since the 2009 season, one where the Longhorns won the Big 12 and made the national championship game. Tom Herman won 10 games back in 2018 but needed a Sugar Bowl win against Georgia to get there.

And that’s exactly why Staples is going to take the under. He wants Texas to prove they are capable of playing like a 10-win regular-season team and not lose to inferior opponents.

“I’m going with recent history,” Staples said. “I’m going under. I’m going with there possibly being a Texas Tech game or an Oklahoma State game from last year or a Kansas game from the year before. I need to see them prove they can win those games. Those are the ones that bug me.”

Staples might be picking Texas to accrue three losses but he still envisions a path to the Big 12 Championship game. If one of the losses is against Alabama, the conference record would sit at 7-2. Traditionally only two Big 12 losses are good enough to get you to AT&T Stadium.

“9-3 still probably gets you into the Big 12 Championship game if you beat Oklahoma and if you lose to Alabama and if you lost a couple of more,” Staples said. “It’s probably not going to be the season they want if that happens. But it’s such a tricky number.”