Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Texas Longhorns in 2024
The Texas Longhorns are a fascinating case study in 2024, being their first year in the SEC. But this is no ordinary new member.
On3’s Cody Bellaire joined Andy Staples On3 Wednesday and expects big things from Steve Sarkisian and company. After winning the Big 12 and getting to the College Football Playoff last year, this is a team that could level up.
As in, this Texas team could very well win the SEC and be a high seed in the College Football Playoff. At the very least, it’s a playoff team.
As far as the ceiling in the floor, the ceiling is high. The floor, well, it’s not too far down to be honest. Bellaire and Staples agreed the minimum for Texas is nearly double digit wins in the regular season.
Ceiling: National Championship
Now, this ceiling is certainly movable for Texas. But Staples and Bellaire think this team in 2024 will make a big run based on its regular season schedule.
The ceiling is winning it all of course, but that would include at least getting to the conference title game. The 12-team playoff certainly provides more opportunity.
“We don’t have to beat around the bush here. The ceiling for Texas is a national title, they should expect to make the playoffs, they should expect to play for the SEC championship,” Staples said. “Is the schedule super easy? Not super easy, but I’d say they got a pretty good draw … So this is a good spot for Texas to be in because this roster, is this the best roster in the SEC? It’s them or Georgia probably.”
Bellaire made the point that the only true road battle is Texas going to Michigan, but the Wolverines enter a new era. Georgia remains the toughest part of the schedule, and the Bulldogs come to Austin!
“Let’s say they split Michigan or Georgia, they’re going to compete for SEC Championship year one in a new conference and they’re going to set the tone early for it,” Bellaire said. “Basically put the SEC on notice and say like hey guys, like we can play with you guys.”
Simply put, this team is loaded on offense and defense and you get stars like Quinn Ewers back, backed up by Arch Manning, bring in wide receiver Isaiah Bond and also have CJ Baxter back in the backfield.
Floor: 9-3 regular season
It’s tough to see Texas lose more than two games, but the floor might be a maximum of three losses, according to Staples.
“I originally had 8-4, but the more we talk about it, I think I may have to go 9-3,” Staples said. “That’s where I’m at.”
Bellaire agreed on Texas’ floor.
“I think 9-3,” Bellaire said. “I think you lose to Michigan and if we’re bottoming out, right, I think you lose to Michigan and Georgia. And then there’s a world in which maybe Oklahoma upsets you again. Like maybe there’s something where Oklahoma has your number and you get to 9-3, but that’s really it on paper.”
After having 11 guys drafted this season, Texas might have eight or nine NFL players, that will be drafted, on this current roster.
“And (that first rounder is) at left tackle no mind,” Bellaire said. “So it’s only one of the most important positions on the field and they have their quarterback, who’s also going to be a first round pick, is arguably a top three quarterback in the country. This team is built to win.”