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Iowa State vs. Texas point spread: Picking Cyclones vs. Longhorns

IMG_0985by:Griffin McVeigh•11/13/23•

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AUSTIN, TEXAS - OCTOBER 15: Hunter Dekkers #12 of the Iowa State Cyclones throws a pass under pressure by T'Vondre Sweat #93 of the Texas Longhorns and Jaylan Ford #41 in the fourth quarter at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on October 15, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Steve Sarkisian set the goal of not just making the Big 12 championship but also winning it before the 2023 season began. Texas currently finds itself in the driver’s seat but has a tough test coming, traveling to Ames. Being the only conference team with one loss, a win against Iowa State will go a long way in sealing their spot in Arlington.

Texas will head into the game as a 7.5-point favorite and is expected to win the game. On3’s Andy Staples was joined by On3’s Josh Newberg to predict the game, with both agreeing the Longhorns would find a way to win the game. Newberg believes Sarkisian’s team will find a way to cover the spread as well.

“I’m going with the Texas win and Texas cover,” Newberg said during Monday’s episode of Andy Staples On3. “But it’s scary. Because Iowa State does such a good job of disrupting things… Texas needs to send a message out on its way out of the Big 12. They go in, dominate Iowa State on the road. That’s how you need to leave. That’s the message, that’s the statement you need to make as you head into the SEC.”

The last two weekends, Texas has held 20-point leads against Kansas State and TCU. One game was with Quinn Ewers, while Maalik Murphy was controlling the other. Either way, both times resulted in a closer contest than needed.

Winning against Kansas State required overtime, while Ewers made a clutch throw to Adonai Mitchell on third down in Fort Worth. Despite having the huge lead, Texas could have easily found a way to lose both.

So, Staples is not going to believe in Texas covering the spread until he sees otherwise. Should the game be close in his eyes? Probably not. But seeing those types of collapses in back-to-back weeks gives him hesitancy.

“I can see Texas winning close,” Staples said. “Just like they won against TCU close, just like they won against Kansas State close… I will fully believe in Texas when it just comes out and shreds the teams they are supposed to shred.”

Tiebreaker scenarios in the Big 12 are currently a disaster, with there being too many two-loss teams. Texas can avoid all of it by finding a way to win against Iowa State. Sarkisian will want to make a statement while doing so, with more than conference implications being on the line.