Predicting ceiling, floor for Texas Tech in 2024 season

Texas Tech is one of the most fascinating teams in the Big 12 ahead of a season that once again brings in new teams to the conference for a second straight year.

The Red Raiders were one of the most inconsistent teams in the Big 12 last season with impressive moments like a win on the road at Kansas, home wins versus UCF and TCU, and even a close loss to Oregon. But also opened the regular season with an overtime, upset loss to Wyoming and ended it with a blowout loss to Texas.

An Independence Bowl win pushed the Texas Tech record to 7-6 last year. And On3’s Andy Staples and Big 12 Radio’s Ari Temkin believe that the Red Raiders have a high chance of at least matching that output this upcoming season.

Ceiling: 10-2

Staples, Temkin, and many others are big believers in Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire ahead of his third season at the helm for the Red Raiders. Returning key players like running back Tahj Brooks and new additions like Micah Hudson and Josh Kelly.

But Temkin believes that Texas Tech reaching their ceiling is largely dependent on keeping their quarterback healthy. Failing to start just one quarterback for an entire season since Patrick Mahomes was under center for the Red Raiders.

“It kind of comes down to that, if Behren Morton is healthy enough and able to play in every game this season they’re gonna have a much higher ceiling than they do if they don’t. The problem is will he?” Temkin asked.

“Now he missed spring practice because he’s still rehabbing from that AC joint sprain. And again, are they gonna be good enough on the offensive line to protect a guy like Morton to keep him upright so that they’re not having to shuttle in other quarterbacks? Because that’s where struggled, when they had to go to their second and third-string quarterbacks they were brutally bad.”

Floor: 7-5

Staples thinks that with consistency Texas Tech will be able to match their win total from last season. An area that they definitely struggled in last year, but could get some help with this year based on a favorable schedule.

“We’ve talked a lot about the draw this season. No Kansas State, no Utah, they play Oklahoma State. This is a very manageable schedule,” Staples said. “They’re at Washington State, we don’t know that that’s going to look like in the new Pac-2. North Texas and Abilene Christian they should be able to handle. But they get Arizona State, they get Cincinnati, they get Baylor, they get the teams that we’re not thinking are going to be particularly tough. If you’re consistent, which has again been the problem, that screams high floor.”

It seems like the Red Raiders have all of the pieces to have a successful season, but those pieces all coming together will be one of the most intriguing storylines in the Big 12 this upcoming season.