JD PicKell tabs Texas Tech as the Big 12's biggest sleeper in 2023

Last year it was TCU that took the Big 12 by storm to go undefeated in conference play and win the regular season crown (before falling in the title game to Kansas State). For the upcoming 2023 season, On3’s JD PicKell likes Texas Tech as a sleeper who could outperform preseason expectations.

The Red Raiders currently have the fourth-best odds to win the conference according to FanDuel. However, as PicKell explained on a recent episode of The Hard Count, he could see them finishing higher in part because of quarterback Tyler Shough.

“Tyler Shough has been dinged up a little bit throughout his career,” PicKell said. “Was a four-star kid coming out of high school and he can spin the rock now. He can spin that pill. I said it before about other quarterbacks: he can deal the pill like a shady pharmacist. That’s who he is. I like Tyler Shough.”

A former Oregon quarterback, Shough transferred into Lubbock ahead of the 2021 season. Shough started just four games his first year at Tech before suffering a broken collarbone that ended his season. He again got hurt in last year’s season opener, missing six games before returning and starting the final four.

Shough was impressive to end last year, however, leading the Red Raiders to a 4-0 record and a Texas Bowl victory against Ole Miss. Overall, he is 8-1 in his nine starts with the Red Raiders, it’s just a matter of whether or not he can stay on the field.

It isn’t just Shough that has PicKell feeling confident in Texas Tech for 2023, however. He also pointed to second-year offensive coordinator Zach Kittley, who helped the Red Raiders average 34.2 points per game (27th overall) in his first year. TTU also returns other offensive playmakers such as running back Tahj Brooks and receiver Jerand Bradley.

“I love Zach Kittley coming over from Western Kentucky,” PicKell said. “Zach Kittley was just a Hogwarts grad when it came to what he did with that offense at Western Kentucky. They scored over 30 points a game last year at Texas Tech with him running the show. They bring back 75% of that production. Tahj Brooks, grown man running the football for them now. Expect him to see a load of the carries. I’m excited for them. If they score over 30 points again on offense and that defense picks up a little bit, look out in the Big 12 now.”

Last year, Texas Tech finished fourth in the Big 12 with a 5-4 league record in coach Joey McGuire‘s inaugural season. PicKell expects another step forward in 2023, a year in which the Big 12 adds four new teams in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF.

“Those dudes will play for Joey McGuire,” he said. “If you’re betting on people, I’m following Joey McGuire into battle with a blindfold on. That’s how confident I feel in Texas Tech and that’s how much confidence this team has in their head coach. The Big 12 now, wide open. We think we know what we know about Texas. We think we know what we know about Oklahoma. I’m just saying, keep an eye on Texas Tech.”