ESPN’s UCLA football projections use FPI rankings

UCLA football is projected to finish 6.1-6.0 this season, according to ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Bruins enter the season ranked No. 54 in the country but project to finish No. 74 this season. ESPN’s UCLA projection gives just a 1.2% chance of winning the PAC-12 and has a 0.0% chance of going undefeated.

The Bruins have struggled to meet expectations under Chip Kelly, not finishing with a winning record in four seasons. UCLA faces the No. 55 ranked strength of schedule but is only favored in five games overall and three in the PAC-12. The numbers show that it will be another difficult season in the middle of the conference.

Here is a look at UCLA’s chances in every game this season:

Hawai’i

UCLA has an 88.3% chance to beat Hawai’i. The Bruins face the No. 101 ranked team in the FPI rankings to start the season.

LSU

The Bruins have a 34.7% chance to win against LSU. UCLA faces its first challenge against top-25 LSU in Los Angeles.

Fresno State

UCLA has a 78.4% chance of beating Fresno State. This is the Bruins’ second-easiest game of the season and the last non-conference game.

at Stanford

The Bruins have a 40.4% chance to beat Stanford on the road. UCLA starts the conference schedule as underdogs against Stanford.

Arizona State

UCLA has a 45.4% chance against Arizona State. The Sun Devils rank No. 29 in the FPI rankings and are UCLA’s fifth toughest opponent.

at Arizona

The Bruins have a 68.7% chance of beating Arizona on the road. Arizona is the worst team in the PAC-12 but is not listed as UCLA’s best chance at a conference win.

at Washington

UCLA has just a 23.4% chance against Washington on the road. This matchup is the Bruins’ toughest of the season.

Oregon

The Bruins have a 29.8% chance of winning against Oregon. The Ducks are UCLA’s toughest opponent at No. 12 overall in the FPI rankings, but home-field advantage helps.

at Utah

UCLA has a 29.2% chance of beating Utah. This road matchup against the No. 30 team in the country wraps up a three-week run as underdogs.

Colorado

The Bruins have a 69.9% chance against Colorado. The Bruins come off a bye week to face Colorado at home.

at USC

UCLA has a 25.5% chance against USC. The Bruins go on the road to face their biggest rival in the second-toughest game of the season.

Cal

The Bruins have a 72.8% chance to win over Cal. The season finale gives UCLA the edge over the No. 74 team in the FPI rankings.

Conclusion:

ESPN’s UCLA projections indicate it could be another difficult season. The win total is just over six, which would take UCLA to its first bowl game since 2017, but only five games as favorites show the bust potential. Despite playing a schedule that lines up with their preseason ranking, the numbers show that they have a chance to finish well below that.