Adjusting expectations for 2024 USC schedule based on CFP expansion

JD PicKell doesn’t believe USC will see a decline in success once they lose Caleb Williams to the NFL Draft and transition to the Big Ten in 2024.

Coincidentally, the conference realignment occurs at the same time as the College Football Playoff’s 12-team expansion. PicKell doesn’t want Trojan fans viewing their 2024 schedule through the same lens fans view them in 2023.

The expansion also gives leeway to how many losses teams can suffer in one season and still earn a spot in the playoffs — which gives the Trojans some insurance as they adjust to their new conference.

“If you’re a USC fan, I have faith in Lincoln Riley for reasons you’ve already told me. I’m concerned about only having that one loss every single year. That concerns me,” PicKell said on a recent episode of On3’s Hard Count. “I think the selection committee will take the strength of schedule into account when putting that 12-team format together.

“If USC looks solid for the duration of the season and they look like one of the top-12 teams in the country, but they have two losses — [hypothetically] one to LSU, one to Michigan — I’ll be very surprised if they’re not in the College Football Playoff.”

A team with two losses has never made the College Football Playoff, though that will certainly change once the field expands after next season. A three-loss team is bound to make it in this format, too.

That does USC some favors, as the Trojans didn’t allow themselves an easy 2024 slate, even before they start conference play. They’ll kick the season off against LSU in Las Vegas, things will calm down during week two when they host San Jose State before hosting Notre Dame in Week 3.

After that, USC will officially begin its Big Ten Conference tenure, which will feature five road games. Their road schedule is comprised of the Maryland Terrapins, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue and UCLA . The four games home games will feature matchups vs. Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin, which will all be played in Los Angeles.

Still, there’s a lot to worry about in the present day before worrying about the great conference realignment of 2024. Caleb Williams is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and is expected to lead the Trojans to the peak of college football. The Big Ten can wait.