Paul Finebaum, Heather Dinich explain how NIL could factor into Caleb Williams' NFL Draft decision

Through two games, Caleb Williams looks primed for another run at the Heisman Trophy. Only Archie Griffin has accomplished such a feat, and the chatter is growing about Williams’ chances of joining him in that elite company.

But the next step in that conversation is what Williams decides to do in the NFL Draft. He appears to be the sure-fire No. 1 overall pick, and ESPN’s Matt Miller projected him to go to the Arizona Cardinals with the top pick and former NFL general manager Mike Tannenbaum calling him “Patrick Mahomes 2.0″ when talking about his ability. However, Williams indicated he might not rush to a decision, telling ESPN’s Pete Thamel it could be an “in-the-moment” call.

There’s another ripple to the conversation, though. Williams is capitalizing on his NIL opportunities at USC, with his Wendy’s and Dr Pepper commercials getting plenty of air time. That’s why some are wondering if he could threaten to sit a year if he can continue to continue to make the most of his NIL chances.

Whether it gets anywhere, though, is another story.

“You could certainly threaten it, and we need to go back, what, to Eli Manning, for the last time this was really an issue,” Paul Finebaum said on Get Up Tuesday morning. “But I don’t think that’s feasible. As much money as he is making and can make because of his brand, especially in LA, it’s not enough. To be the No. 1 pick … there’s so much bonus money, there’s so many residuals. There is no way you’re going to stick around one more year at Southern Cal.”

Heather Dinich: Williams’ decision is ‘more than money’

After going No. 1 overall in 2022, Bryce Young received a fully guaranteed four-year, $37.96 million deal from the Carolina Panthers that included a $24.6 million signing bonus. According to KPRC-2’s Aaron Wilson, the year-by-year salary breakdown includes three fully guaranteed roster bonuses — $1.56 million in 2024, $3.17 million in 2025 and $4.78 million in 2026.

While money could be a key factor in Williams’ decision, Heather Dinich said there’s an allure to being the No. 1 pick and achieving a goal of playing in the NFL. He has previously said the plan was to always go three-and-out, but there’s also the idea of playing in the College Football Playoff that could make the decision interesting.

“I agree with Paul, and it’s also more than the money,” Dinich said. “We’re talking about the dream to play in the NFL at the highest level and be the top pick. I mean, that’s a no brainer, in my mind. But it’s a personal decision, too.”

Williams’ On3 NIL Valuation is among the highest in college sports. At $2.6 million, he ranks No. 5 in the On3 NIL 100 and No. 3 in the On3 College Football NIL Rank. The On3 NIL Valuation is the industry’s leading index that sets the standard market NIL value for high school and college athletes. A proprietary algorithm, the On3 NIL Valuation calculates an athlete’s NIL value using dynamic data points targeting three primary categories: performance, influence and exposure.

Additionally, being in Los Angeles, there could be plenty more opportunities to secure NIL deals. But former Pro Bowler Bart Scott argued that wouldn’t even be enough for Williams to pass up on the chance to be the No. 1 overall pick.

“I don’t think you pull that trigger,” Scott said. “I understand the enticement of playing in Southern California, also the NIL deals. That pretty much is and has been the professional team in Southern California. But you’re talking about starting that clock early for the dash to $60 million. You see what these quarterbacks are getting paid.

“Every time you step on a football field, it could be your last snap. I’m trying to get to the NFL so I can start that clock to who knows where Trevor Lawrence is going to push it, after Joe Burrow pushes it, after Mahomes decides, ‘Okay, I’m better than all of them.’ He’s already at a half a billion. By the time Caleb Williams gets there and gets to the table, it could be $65-$70 million per [year].”

Former NFL GM Mike Tannenbaum: If the Cardinals get the No. 1 pick, Caleb Williams could make them wait for a decision

Tannenbaum also argued there could be another consideration for Williams: the destination. That famously came about when Eli Manning said he wouldn’t play for the San Diego Chargers, and they ultimately traded him to the New York Giants after selecting him with the No. 1 overall pick in 2004.

With NIL dollars rolling in at USC, Tannenbaum said Williams could make the Cardinals — if they get the No. 1 pick — wait to find out if he’ll declare for the draft.

“I understand the math and the logic of what these guys are saying,” Tannenbaum said. “But let me take you into the Arizona Cardinals’ draft room for a minute, which is this. Let’s say they have the first pick and the Rams have the second, and Caleb Williams’ agent says, ‘Hey, I’m not playing here for the year. And you can draft me and I’m gonna go to Nike and I’m gonna do it. I may not get $50 million.’ That becomes a year further away.

“But it could be enough to bluff to say, ‘Hey, I want to go play for Sean McVay and the Rams. Draft me and see what I do.’ Or you can take a bushel of three first round picks.”

Scott pointed out the biggest difference between Williams and Manning’s situations, though. Their last names. The Manning family is perhaps the most powerful family in football, and that could have given Eli Manning more leverage with the Chargers, and Williams should take the money and go to the league.

Tannenbaum countered with another point about a team that might be the No. 2 pick — the Los Angeles Rams — and what they can offer Williams from a talent perspective.

“Here’s what I’m saying. It’s gonna make the Arizona Cardinals think long and hard, is Caleb Williams gonna sit out a year?” Tannenbaum said. “Do I think he would? Probably not. But if you’re faced with a year of not having anything, or let’s say three first-round picks to make it interesting and Aaron Donald, you have to consider it.”