ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for USC in 2023

ESPN has released their game-by-game predictions and overall record projection for USC in 2023 via their Football Power Index.

The expectations are high for Trojans in Year 2 of Lincoln Riley’s tenure. The program is led by the defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams, who also enters as the projected No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft.

But the Pac-12 is no joke this year. Half of the league believes it could win the conference championship with many having greater ambitions than just a division title.

Here’s their full game-by-game predictions for USC in 2023.

Aug. 26: USC vs San Jose State — 96.4% chance of win

USC opens the season with a Week 0 game versus San Jose State. The Spartans went 7-5 last season but this should be an easy start for the season for the Trojans.

The two teams have faced off five times since 1995 with USC winning all three. The last contest came in 2021 when USC won 30-7.

Sept. 2: USC vs Nevada — 96.9% chance of win

Despite being in bordering states, this will be the first time USC and Nevada battle since the Prohibition. The two teams played five times in the 1920s with the Trojans winning all five times.

That last game in 1929 was a particular beatdown with a 66-0 win for USC. The Trojans finished the year 10-2 with a Rose Bowl victory.

Sept. 9: USC vs Stanford — 93.8% chance of win

Stanford is a program going under changes after a couple of difficult seasons at the end of David Shaw‘s tenure. With Troy Taylor now in charge, the Cardinal are looking to start building something for the future.

Unluckily for them, they face USC in Week 2 for its first conference game.

Sept. 23: USC at Arizona State — 88.0% chance of win

After a bye week, USC returns to the football field with another matchup against a team in transition. Arizona State will have just a few games under Kenny Dillingham.

It should be another somewhat easy victory for the Trojans, especially coming off an off week to recover from the start of the season.

Sept. 30: USC at Colorado — 92.8% chance of win

Deion Sanders‘ first game leading the Buffaloes against the Trojans will come in Boulder, Colo. However, USC is projected to win the game over 90% of the time.

It is the Trojans’ highest chance of winning on the road in any game this season. Last year, the Pac-12 South Division champs won 55-17 in a blowout. But the Buffaloes have a higher level of talent in the program this year with former five-star recruit Travis Hunter and talented quarterback Shedeur Sanders now leading the offense.

Oct. 7: USC vs Arizona — 90.9% chance of win

The last game of the first half of the season for the Trojans also marks the final game for USC against a perceived easier opponent. USC shouldn’t have much trouble against the Wildcats.

But after this week, USC will face its five toughest opponents over the next six weeks. It would be surprising if the Trojans aren’t undefeated after this week with a rivalry game on tap.

Oct. 14: USC at Notre Dame — 42.3% chance of win

The one game FPI projects the Trojans to lose is to the Fighting Irish on this Saturday night in South Bend, Ind. Notre Dame has had the upper hand in the rivalry in recent seasons, winning seven of the last 10 matchups.

But USC pulled out the victory last year in Los Angeles in the final game of the regular season. Austin Jones led the way with 154 rushing yards on 25 carries and Williams had 232 yards through the air.

Oct. 21: USC vs Utah — 68.4% chance of win

Arguably the biggest game on the USC schedule, the Utes have had the Trojans’ number in recent seasons. This includes last season when Utah beat the team twice, including in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Getting Utah at home will make life easier for the Trojans but the Utes will still put up a fight against the team. Utah beat the 2021 USC team in Los Angeles in early October in a 42-26 dominant victory.

Oct. 28: USC at California — 77.5% chance of win

The Golden Bears have won only twice over the Trojans over the past two decades but both wins have come over the past four matchups. Cal won 15-14 in 2018 and then won 24-14 in 2021.

The Golden Bears lost by only six in 2022 but the Trojans had control of the game the entire way. Williams had 360 passing yards with four touchdowns on 26 of 41 passing while Bryson Shaw had 11 tackles to lead the defense.

Nov. 4: USC vs Washington — 77.1% chance of win

It will, barring injury, be a matchup of two of the best quarterbacks in college football in Williams and Michael Penix Jr. Both players are dynamic playmakers at the position and ranked among On3’s top players in the country.

For Penix, the game will likely be his best chance at having a Heisman moment — if he is in the running for the award. A victory over a top-ranked USC team and Williams would be the best possible thing for his candidacy.

Nov. 11: USC at Oregon — 54.0% chance of win

The closest game on the schedule for the Trojans is their away game against the Ducks, which is as close to a coin toss as FPI predicts on the schedule. It is another matchup of highly-regarded quarterbacks wit Williams and Bo Nix.

This will be the first matchup between the two teams since the 2020 Pac-12 Championship Game. The Ducks won that game 31-24 over a then-undefeated USC team.

Nov. 18: USC vs UCLA — 83.6% chance of win

The final Pac-12 game for USC will be against its city rival UCLA. The Trojans won a thrilling game at the Rose Bowl last year in a 48-45 victory. Williams was 32 of 43 for 470 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdowns.

The winning team in the game has scored at least 43 points each of the past four seasons.

Because of USC’s schedule this year, the team will not play a game in Week 13. That means if it makes the Pac-12 title game, it will have a bye week ahead of it.

ESPN’s FPI final record projection for USC — 10.0-2.6

ESPN’s FPI is projecting the Trojans to finish with double-digit wins, one of four teams in college football projected to reach that benchmark by the system. The other three are Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State.

USC also has a 41.2% chance of winning the Pac-12 title, according to FPI. That is the best of any Pac-12 team and fourth-best odds for any team to win its conference title. But its odds of making the College Football Playoff are only 22.2%, which is seventh-best in college football.

However, the Trojans and their fans have to be excited about their chances for the upcoming season. With Williams, Riley and a plethora of a talented playmakers, this will be the team’s best chance to return a national title game in recent memory.