Greg McElroy gives Lincoln Riley a 20% chance to win a national championship at USC

Lincoln Riley doesn’t feel like he’s on the same coaching tier as he once was for some around college football. Greg McElroy doesn’t think that way, though, considering some of his decisions from this offseason in Los Angeles.

McElroy gave his likelihood that Riley, among other coaches, would eventually win a national title as their respective schools during a recent episode of ‘Always College Football’. He gets that Riley’s ceiling isn’t as high for some these days because of his deficient defenses. However, with a new defensive coordinator, he believes there’s a chance that the Trojans can fix that problematic aspect.

“I think if we look at it right now, in the prisoner of the moment mindset, a lot of people would say Lincoln Riley’s percentage likelihood of winning a national championship is below 10, probably single digits because clearly, based on his track record at Oklahoma and his early track record at USC, defense is a huge issue. Well, I would push back on that because I look at who he just hired in D’Anton Lynn,” explained McElroy. “I look at their philosophy moving forward. While I think Alex Grinch did some good things, I think, philosophically, he was too aggressive. I think there were too many chances taken and they occasionally got a little unsound. As a result, the tackling suffered and, as a result, the defense suffered.”

“I’m cautiously optimistic that he has nailed this most recent hire defensively. I feel really strongly about it. I love D’Anton Lynn, think he’s a great coach,” said McElroy. “They’re going to implement a great philosophy. I think they’re going to continue to attract players because they have deep resources in NIL. Playing in the Big Ten, I think, will help prepare them, if they get to the playoff, to be extremely competitive if they get there.”

In two seasons in Hollywood, Riley has posted two more top-three offenses at an average of 41.6 ppg.. That gives him four of those in seven seasons as a head coach.

It’s just that, in a pair of seasons at USC, they’ve also had two defenses outside the Top-90 that have given up an average of 31.8 ppg.. That’s including 43 ppg. in their eight losses. In seven years, he has only one defense finish in the Top-30, let alone higher than in the Top-60.

Still, even with all that said, McElroy thinks Lynn’s hire will handle that matter. That’s why he gives Riley as good of a chance as he does. He thinks it’s more than fair too considering the defensive skepticism and the recent history for USC.

“While this number might be high for some given some of the inadequacies we’ve seen on one side of the ball from Lincoln Riley, I’m going to put the likelihood that he wins a title at ‘SC at 20%. I feel like that’s pretty good, by the way,” McElroy said. “I think that’s a pretty good number given the fact that ‘SC has not won a national championship in 20 years. Feels like yesterday but it has been 20 years. They haven’t really been in the title hunt in a really long time.”

Riley has firepower that is of a championship caliber. It’s just a matter of if he can ever field a sufficient defense, especially in a new conference next fall.

That’s now the task at hand for the Trojans, which McElroy thinks they can accomplish in the new era of the expanded College Football Playoff.

“I think Lincoln Riley – he’s going to be able to attract offensive playmakers, he’s going to be able to score. It’s just how will he adapt into a new league that is more about the line of scrimmage and more about the ground and pound emphasis?” asked McElroy.

“I think he’s going to do great,” McElroy said. “I think Lincoln Riley is well-positioned to, in a 12-team playoff era, make some noise and potentially win one here down the road.”