Paul Finebaum: Home loss to Penn State would 'emphatically eliminate' USC from College Football Playoff

Part of a can’t-miss Week 7 slate of college football is taking place in the LA Memorial Coliseum Saturday: USC is hosting No. 4 Penn State.

It’s a must-win game for the two-loss Trojans.

On “SportsCenter” Wednesday, ESPN’s Matt Barrie asked Paul Finebaum, “Which coach will not sleep a second Saturday night after the game?”

“Even though he doesn’t have to travel, that will be Lincoln Riley at Southern Cal,” Finebaum said. “He’s already dropped a couple of games this year, a nasty one last week [at Minnesota], and one a couple of weeks ago at Michigan. And a third loss would essentially, if not emphatically, eliminate this program from the CFP.

“That would be considered a major disappointment. Still a few question marks about Penn State — why are they so high? Lincoln Riley has a quarterback in [Miller] Moss, but does he have the defense to slow Penn State down? I don’t think so.”

USC has allowed at least 190 rushing yards in each of its two losses this season. After this week, the Trojans still have to play the likes of Rutgers, Washington, Nebraska and, most notably, No. 11 Notre Dame.

Matt Leinart evaluates state of USC football under Lincoln Riley

Former USC quarterback and current FOX Sports analyst Matt Leinart, who won a national championship and the Heisman Trophy with the Trojans in 2004, believes the 2022 season set the bar unrealistically high for head coach Lincoln Riley, who is now in his third year at the helm of the program after taking Oklahoma to the College Football Playoff three times in five years.

“Last year, they were just awful,” Leinart said Wednesday on “The Triple Option” podcast. “Defensively, they were awful. Offensively, they were awful. They had a couple good players. Caleb [Williams is] obviously a star. And now this year, USC beats LSU at Allegiant Stadium, and that set the expectation once again.”

Leinart continued: “And I was on it. We were all on it. I saw them play, I was there. LSU, by the way, is a good team right now. That’s a big-time win. And so we’re thinking, ‘OK, the defense is better. The offensive line held their own against an SEC D-Line. Miller Moss looked good.’ Now, all of a sudden, you kind of get into conference play, and you got to travel a little bit.”

Since then, USC has lost two of its first three Big Ten games. The Trojans’ lone win came in comeback fashion at home against Wisconsin. After going into halftime facing a 21-10 deficit, USC rallied to score 28 unanswered points and grab its first league win.

But that come-from-behind victory sandwiched two one-score losses, the second a shocker in Minneapolis. Although a controversial goal line touchdown made the difference, USC gave up 193 rushing yards to Minnesota. Stopping the run was also an issue against Michigan, which piled up 290 yards on the ground, including runs of 53, 41 and 63 yards.

Leinart said that after USC beat LSU in Week 1, a game in which the Trojans allowed only 117 yards on the ground, he believed his alma mater was the biggest threat to Ohio State in the Big Ten.

Now he thinks USC looks like a four or five-loss team with issues up front on both sides of the ball.

“USC is trying to get back to relevance,” Leinart said. “They’re trying to get back to being a playoff team. Lincoln Riley got paid a lot of money to get this team back. And right now, and I tweeted this out, I just feel like USC’s stuck in neutral.”