Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for USC Trojans in 2024

USC football enters their first season in the Big 12 with some major question marks but also some very high potential, as is typically the case with a Lincoln Riley offense.

Of course, the Trojans enjoyed a very strong first season under Riley and were College Football Playoff contenders until the bitter end. But in 2023, USC faltered mightily as the defense got even worse, leading to a very underwhelming 7-5 regular season with the future No. 1 pick at quarterback.

With Caleb Williams gone and newcomers all over the defense, including a new defensive coordinator, can USC rebound for a solid season with their very tough schedule? Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire debated that question and what the ceiling and floor looks like for the trojans in 2024 over on the On3 YouTube channel.

Ceiling

Essentially, Staples and Bellaire agreed that the team’s fate largely rides on the improvement or lack thereof on the defensive side of the football.

“If USC is competent on defense, they can go to the playoff,” declared Staples, explaining why there could be reason for optimism for an improved D.

“It’s really a question of the defense. They got very long at corner, like, they know what they’re looking for. D’Anton Lynn came in knowing what he wants it to look like, which I think is promising. I think they are going to be more right-sized on defense.”

Bellaire piggy-backed on that comment, laying out a pretty promising ceiling if USC is able to put together a better defensive product than the 2022 and 2023 groups.

“If they do, I think their best case scenario could be in the 10-2 range. I think they have a great shot at going 6-0 down the stretch, maybe losing one. But this is a team that, realistically, if they have a pulse on defense, they could go 9-3 no problem.”

He continued, noting a few of the pieces he really likes on this Trojan roster.

“I love the skill players here. Zachariah Branch, one of the most electric players. Jonah Monheim is probably one of the best interior linemen. Woody Marks, a great three-down back. And they bring in some high quality defensive players, too. New DC can’t be any worse than last season. And you get Miller Moss to be your starting quarterback after throwing six touchdowns in the bowl game.”

Andy Staples chimed in one more time, saying: “I feel like me saying if all goes well they can make the playoff, that’s the most optimistic I’ve heard anybody be about them all year.”

Floor

Once again, the defense is going to decide the question, as Staples notes: “If USC stinks again on defense, they might not even make a bowl game.”

Bellaire certainly thinks that’s a realistic possibility, especially with how difficult their schedule is entering the Big Ten.

“Well, the Big Ten says welcome to the Big Ten, we’re going to give you a tough one schedule-wise. That schedule is not fun, and you get LSU and Notre Dame on top of it in non-conference. Not fun. You know, you have to travel to Washington, and you travel to Minnesota.

“I agree with you. I think the floor for this team might be 5-7. That’s the absolute bottom falling out. That’s if the defense isn’t fixed, Miller Moss isn’t the guy they think he is. I could see them finding themselves on the wrong side of a lot of 50-50 games. That team could end up 6-6 and I wouldn’t be shocked.”

Staples had expressed optimism in potential defensive improvement. But with Lincoln Riley’s track record, he’ll have to see the proof in the pudding.

“Again, I need to see it. I have never seen a good defense opposite Lincoln Riley’s offense. That says to me that it’s more of a wholistic issue than a defensive coordinator issue, so I need to see it happen on the field.”

Staples continued, explaining what another terrible defense and mediocre season could mean for his reputation as a coach.

“How far has Lincoln Riley’s star fallen since he got that job where we’re just like, ‘oh, you’re going to the Big Ten? The Big Ten’s going to eat you up.’ Where, two years ago, it’s ‘oh they’re going to come roaring into the Big Ten.’

“‘Well, you know, we to the Big Ten and fingers crossed we secure a bowl game.’ Is that where we’re at now with USC? It’s unbelievable that’s the conversation we have because one side of the ball has struggled so much.”

A massive year coming up for Lincoln Riley at USC.