Predicting the win total ceiling, floor for Vanderbilt in 2024

The 2024 season will be the fourth for the Vanderbilt Commodores under head coach Clark Lea. At this point in the rebuild, the program is looking to show more improvement in the win and loss column. However, that won’t be an easy task this season.

During an episode of Andy Staples On3, Cody Bellaire joined Staples to discuss the season for Vanderbilt. There, the two broke down the potential total win ceiling and floor for the Commodores during the 2024 season.

Together, Staples and Bellaire came to the conclusion that the ceiling for Vanderbilt would be making a bowl game, but the floor could be a three-win season.

CEILING: 6-6, Bowl Game

Andy Staples gave Vanderbilt a ceiling of going 6-6 and making it to a bowl game this season. That is, in large part, because of some notable names Clark Lea added from New Mexico State.

“I’ve been waiting to talk about this quarterback…the Vanderbilt Commodores,” Andy Staples said. “Not only do you get Diego Pavia from New Mexico State, you also get Jerry Kill as a consultant. I mean, come on now. If you’re Clark Lea, Jerry Kill makes teams better, wins in impossible situations like New Mexico State, and then you bring in Diego Pavia who won at New Mexico State, which is a place where you are not supposed to be able to win as a quarterback.”

In 2023 while playing for New Mexico State under head coach Jerry Kill, Diego Pavia had 2,973 yards and 26 touchdowns. He also had 923 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns.

“Correct. Diego Pavia was all conference for Conference USA last year. This is a guy that really brings a true dual threat to Vanderbilt, which, ultimately if you’re gonna win games at Vandy, you have to have a guy under center that’s going to move the chains with his legs, move the chains with his arms,” Bellaire said.

“This is a guy that’s coming in, it’s a new quarterback deal, but like you mentioned with Jerry Kill, it’s an offense he can run in his sleep. So, for Vandy to win a couple of games, Diego Pavia’s gonna have to pull some magic out of a hat…but I think there’s a world in which they might actually do it. Is that crazy to say?”

Ultimately, winning still isn’t going to be easy for Vanderbilt in 2024. However, the Commodores making a bowl game for the first time since 2018.

“6-6, ceiling. Bowl game, ceiling,” Staples said.

“Is that more likely? Possible,” Bellaire added. “But I do think there’s a world where this offense moves the ball pretty consistently, and that’s something Vandy hasn’t been able to do in quite some time, but I actually think with this New Mexico State crew coming in, it’s more than likely they’re actually going to be able to move the ball offensively.”

FLOOR: 3-9

While making a bowl game is reasonable for Vanderbilt. The Commodores could just as easily struggle and end with just three wins.

“Your floor is probably 3-9,” Staples said.

Andy Staples also pointed to the Vanderbilt Commodores opening game against the Virginia Tech Hokies, which could set the tone for the season.

“I’m very intrigued about that Virginia Tech game. Now, I will say, I would have been more intrigued about it had Virginia Tech’s season ended at about the halfway point last year, but I think they kind of figured things out with Kyron Drones and so now I’m leaning Hokies in that one, but I do think that could be kind of interesting,” Staples said.

“So, I’m excited to see it. As you can see with a lot of these SEC teams, there’s a lot of schedules where you’re looking at potentially four Playoff teams on your schedule, or there’s at least four teams that will be in the hunt to make the Playoff in the second week of November. Like, that’s terrifying.”