Will Virginia make enough shots?

We are just four years removed from Virginia winning the first national championship in program history. We are just five years removed from Virginia making history as the first ever one-seed to lose to a 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Last season the Cavaliers averaged 62.4 points (342nd in D-I) while giving up 60.1 (sixth in D-I). This was the first time in the last ten or so years that Virginia did not average at least five more points per game than they gave up. It was also only the second time in the last ten seasons the team failed to shoot 35 percent from three.

Two-time national coach of the year Tony Bennett hit the recruiting trail. They brought in one transfer, fifth-year senior Ben Vander Plas, and a four-man top-25 recruiting class. There is some excitement around this team, more depth, and better shooting.

They are also starting the season ranked 18th in the AP poll, despite not making the NCAA Tournament last season.

Read One on one with Tony Bennett (part 1)
Read One on one with Tony Bennett (part 2)
Read One on one with Tony Bennett (part 3)

PG Kihei Clark

Height/Weight: 5-10/160
Class: Senior
2021-22 stats: 10.0 points, 4.4 assists, 34.6% 3P

This Virginia team is pretty universally ranked among the top 25 in the country, and their most important player is Kihei Clark. It’s more than just the experience he brings; it’s also the trust that Tony Bennett has with and in his point guard.

Clark started as a true freshman in the 2019 national championship game win. The point guard has gone on to start 108 games in his college career. Tony Bennett often speaks about Clark’s ability to heat up the ball. Clark has quick feet and is able to guard the ball, the full length of the court, for the entirety of a game. While his counting numbers may not be as high as others, on the defensive end, Clark is the central piece of what this Cavalier team does on the defensive end.

Offensively, Clark has the ball in his hands. He can touch the paint, and he has grown in his ability to take care of the ball and possessions. He is a streaky jump shooter and can struggle to finish when in the paint. However, ask anyone; he is the heart and soul of what this team does.

SG Reece Beekman

Height/Weight: 6-3/185
Class: Junior
2021-22 stats: 8.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.1 steals, 44.9% FG

When it comes to raw talent, Reece Beekman might have more than any other player on this roster. Even in a season some may call down for the guard, Beekman finished second in the ACC in assists and led the conference in steals.

Beekman has great length and natural quickness on the ball. When he is at his best, he is a paint touch guard. He has a quick and decisive handle that will get him into the paint in the half-court, and he has the strength to take a bump in traffic. In order for Beekman to take the next step, he will need to become a more consistent jump shooter. Beekman is a career 30.4 percent shooter from three.

Defensively, Beekman is equally effective on or off the ball. He has excellent instincts and an aggressive nature in the passing lanes. Even despite his shooting woes, Beekman plays an efficient game; he finished as a top 15 guard in the ACC in player efficiency rating. This could be a season where he takes another step.

SF Armaan Franklin

Height/Weight: 6-4/195
Class: Senior
2021-22 stats: 11.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals

Armaan Franklin is another veteran perimeter player who has good advanced defensive statistics and is coming off a season of poor shooting. Franklin is a good athlete; his frame and athleticism play well with the pack line defense.

Franklin’s career stats are interesting. Last year and his freshman year, Franklin shot below 30 percent from beyond the arc. In his sophomore year, he shot over 42 percent from three. The 3.9 three-point attempts as a sophomore year at Indiana is enough to give hope; which Franklin will they get this year?

While Franklin may not be a game changer, he is solid, and most importantly, Bennett trusts him.

PF Jayden Gardner

Height/Weight: 6-7/235
Class: Senior
2021-22 stats: 15.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 50.1% FG

Jayden Gardner has scored 1,999 career points in his time between East Carolina and Virginia. He is a powerfully built forward who knows his game and plays incredibly efficiently on the offensive end.

Gardner’s game is a bit of a throwback in that he is most dangerous in the mid-range. Gardner has a quick first step off the bounce and great footwork playing from the mid and high post. He has the strength to finish through contact; in fact, he seeks out contact. Gardner is not a threat from beyond the arc, but he was close to an 80 percent free-throw shooter last season.

Defensively, Gardner is a good team defender. He understands where he needs to be in help side, and he takes great angles to the ball. On an island, Gardner can have heavy feet, and he is not a rim protector. Gardner is a solid rebounder, doing most of his work in positioning and leverage before the ball comes off the rim.

C Kadin Shedrick

Height/Weight: 6-11/240
Class: Junior
2021-22 stats: 6.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 64.1% FG

Word coming out of Charlottesville is to watch for an improved Kadin Shedrick. The redshirt junior is now up to 240 pounds, and he has been consistently healthy for a few months in a row now.

Shedrick is one of the premier shot blockers in the ACC. His long wing span and natural timing allow him to be a threat blocking shots with his left hand or right now. Shedrick’s 11.2 block percentage was third in the conference last season. His 1.9 blocks per game were fourth in the ACC, and he was the only player in the top nine to play less than 23 minutes per game.

Shedrick knocked down 70.9 percent of his free throws and shoot 64.1 percent from the field. He was one of only eight power six players to reach those numbers last season. Virginia will look more to Shedrick to score in the post this year. With his newfound strength and weight, he will be the anchor of the UVA defense this season.

Bench

This is an area that is much improved for the Cavaliers. Last season, Bennett only had a rotation of seven. This year, Virginia returns six of those seven, added an experienced grad transfer, and brought in a four-man top 25 class.

Ben Vander Plas has scored 1,574 career points. The 6-foot-8 forward was first-team All-MAC last year when he padded the stat book averaging 14.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 steals. Look for the former MAC Freshman of the Year to carve out a big role.

Senior Francisco Caffaro is 7-foot-1 and 250 pounds. He is an experienced big body who Bennett can rely on when necessary. Sophomore Taine Murray is a shooter that never really got going last season. He has shot the ball well early on this season, which is something that Virginia desperately needs.

Speaking of shooting, freshman Isaac McKneely will have a chance to carve out a role on this year’s team. The consensus four-star shooting guard is a two-time West Virginia Gatorade Player of the Year, and he scored over 1,800 career high school points.

Two things I know

Virginia will shoot it better than last season.

Virginia shot 32.3 percent from beyond the arc last season, 257th in the country. They did not have a single player, who shot more than 25 threes on the season, make 35 or more percent of their threes. That should not be the case this year. Taine Murray and Isaan McKneely will be new additions to the rotation who can knock down shots at a high clip. The more shots they make, the more they should see the floor. Also, look for improvements from Reece Beekman and Armaan Franklin, who were both below 30 percent last season.

Virginia is going to defend.

This is not a hot take, but this year’s team returns all five starters from last year’s team that gave up the sixth least (60.1) points per game. Reece Beekman is a premier perimeter defender, Kihei Clark is a high-level point-of-attack defender, and Kadin Shedrick may be the top rim protector in the ACC.

With Bennett able to roll a deeper rotation out there, the defense should only perform better.

Two things I wonder

Which Armaan Franklin will we see?

Armaan Franklin averaged 11.4 points and shot 42.4 percent from three during his sophomore year at Indiana. He transferred last season, his junior year, at Virginia, where he shot 39.2 percent from the field and 29.6 percent from three. Virginia will not need him to be his sophomore year self, but somewhere between the two would go a long way for this team.

Can Virginia make enough shots?

As we outlined above, they will have better shooters on the team, but the question is will those guys make shots? The year Virginia won the national championships, they averaged 71.4 points per game and shot 47.4 percent from the field. Last year the Cavaliers averaged 62.4 points per game and shot 44.9 percent from the field.

With the limited number of possessions their style forces, they need to shoot the ball efficiently. This team has more depth and better shooters on it; now, will they go out and consistently made shots?