Phil Steele predicts final rankings in 2023 Pac-12 forecast

The Pac-12 experienced a pretty awesome season of football last fall. Five of the conference’s 12 teams wound up winning 10+ games while all five also finished between 10-20 in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Plus, they had the Heisman Trophy winner in USC’s Caleb Williams.

Overall, it was just an incredibly entertaining fall worth of football on the West Coast. Luckily, we’re set to enjoy at least one more exciting year on the gridiron before the Pac-12 is reshaped. Will Utah make it three in a row or will another contender finally unseat the Utes as Pac-12 champs? Find out what Phil Steele thinks in his preseason conference rankings.

You can view his full predictions for the Pac-12 standings right here, starting with his pick to win the league:

1. USC

Heading into 2022, Lincoln Riley’s first year, Steele rated USC as his No. 1 most-improved team and also had the Trojans as his No. 2 surprise team. While they narrowly missed the College Football Playoff thanks to a pesky Utah squad, the inaugural run for Riley in SoCal was a rousing success.

Steele can’t call them a surprise team this year. Instead, he’s just bullish on the Trojans in their final year as a Pac-12 school. “They are my pick to win the Pac-12 and potentially earn a playoff spot in Riley’s second year,” he wrote, also pointing out that they return 17 starters.

2. Utah

Steele began his snippet on the Utes by bragging of his own forecasts after having correctly picked them to win the league for a second time in a row last season. Heading into 2023, he has Utah as a contender in the conference once again, especially thanks to a return from QB Cam Rising.

“The Utes have five Pac-12 home games and are 19-0 the last three years at home with crowds,” Steele wrote. “They do face USC, Washington and Oregon State on the road but will have a shot to grab their third straight Pac-12 title.”

2. Oregon

Oregon was a good football team in year one under Dan Lanning and Phil Steele is expecting similar things the second time around. He likes the experience and schedule and has Oregon finishing in a dead heat with Utah for second.

“This year Bo Nix opted to return and they have 16 returning starters plus a -39 spot easier schedule,” Steele says, meaning that the Ducks dropped 39 spots in his rankings of the toughest schedules in the country this year compared to last. He continued: “The Ducks were No. 1 in the Pac-12 last year with +136 yards-per-game. They have five Pac-12 home games but do face Washington and Utah on the road.”

2. Washington

What’s that, three teams picked to place second in the conference? Phil Steele is one indecisive prediction-maker, that’s for sure. Of the three teams he thinks will tie at No. 2, he appears most dubious of the Huskies, noting that Washington was +3 on close games while “their schedule is 45 points tougher” on his scale thanks to the additions of USC and Utah this year.

However, he says some of his models call for a Washington Pac-12 championship — and with Michael Penix plus 15 total starters returning, he certainly won’t rule out that possibility.

5. Oregon State

Now, we skip from the trio of second-placers all the way down to No. 5, where Oregon State is ranked following Jonathan Smith’s breakthrough season in Corvalis. But don’t take a fifth place prediction as a slight, Beaver fans, because Phil Steele still believes this team is on an upoward trajectory and can compete for the conference crown this fall.

“This year, Reser Stadium has a newly remodeled west side and they are 12-1 at home the last two years,” he says. “They are a legitimate Pac-12 contender by avoiding USC and getting Utah, UCLA and Washington all at home. Smith continues the talent upgrade in 2023.”

6. UCLA

The Pac-12 had an exceptional top six teams a year ago and Phil Steele has all six placing in the top half of the league standings again this year, with the Bruins rounding out the list thanks to more questions at QB than the other teams have. Although, don’t feel sorry for Chip Kelly, because he’s got a top five recruit set to slide right in.

The Bruins went 9-4 in 2022 and Steele sees that as an achievable mark again in ’23, perhaps with a slight improvement even. He says: “This year, they do lose their star QB, RB and WR but have suitable replacements. After almost making the Pac-12 title game last year, they are a contender once again and have a shot at improving their win total.”

7. Washington State

Washington State was in its own middle class last season. The Cougars weren’t in contention for the conference crown like all six of the teams above them, nor did the Cougars fail to make a bowl game. Instead, they were the only Pac-12 school who landed in the 6-8 win range at 7-6.

Steele believes another postseason appearance is probable and had this to say about Wazzu: “Of the teams that finished in the lower half of the Pac-12, they were the only team who benefitted from bowl practices. They also avoid both Utah and USC in Pac-12 play and will be bowl bound again.”

8. California

Aside from an unanswered question at quarterback, there’s a lot to like about Cal in 2023. They got a 900-yard receiver and 900-yard running back to return to school while getting most of their starters back from a year ago. However, a tough schedule has Phil Steele skeptical this group and make a push into the top half of the standings. He wrote:

“This year, 17 starters are back and they had -3 close losses,” meaning the Golden Bears found themselves losers of three more close games than they won, a real unlucky mark. Steele calls those “signs pointing up” but notes that California has the No. 9 hardest schedule in the country and must face all six of the top-half Pac-12 teams.

9. Arizona

Per Steele, the Wildcats were +3 in the close wins department and had a knack for closing out the tight games they found themselves in. He likes that 3,600-yard passer Jayden de Laura is back in the fold and sees an overall talent upgrade on the roster. The obstacles to a bowl game are a brutal schedule and a defense that still has its flaws.

“The defense is my main concern and the schedule is tough with only four Pac-12 home games,” Steele notes, compared to the five road games. And, all four of those home games come against teams picked in the top-five of the conference. He says the Wildcats “will have to be road warriors to make a bowl” or pull off a string of impressive upsets at home.

10. Arizona State

“This is a rebuilding year,” Steele stated of the Sun Devils. After Herm Edwards was dispelled unceremoniously in the middle of last year, new head coach Kenny Dillingham isn’t getting much help in year one and returns just 13 starters off a bad 2022 team. They went just 3-9 and had one notable victory over Washington.

However, per Steele, “most indicators are pointing up,” explaining: “They have eight starters back on offense and will be more potent while the defense can only improve. They do have eight home games and should clearly top last year’s win total and flirt with a bowl.”

11. Colorado

Phil Steele is not tremendously high on the Buffaloes in year one under Deion Sanders, although even he admits it’s an experiment he has no way of predicting. Here was his rationale on rating Colorado so low in the Pac-12 rankings:

“Now they were woeful last year so you would expect some improvement, but Sanders did a nice job landing talent through the portal after it was tough to bring in transfers the previous two years. This team is an unknown quantity, an enigma. But one thing I do know is there are very few soft spots on the schedule which will make contending in the Pac-12 or even a bowl game unlikely in the first year of this total rebuild.”

12. Stanford

Shield your eyes, Stanford fans, because Phil Steele absolutely filleted the 2023 Cardinal football team. He’s not counting on much success from a brand new coach that returns six total starters off a 3-9 team the year before. On offense, despite losing the QB, he does expect a “sight improvement” with a more offensively-minded coach.

But on defense, Steele predicts some pretty sour history. Last year, the Cardinal gave up north of 450 yards per game, which hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years, and his projections are calling for even more yards (468 to be exact) and points given up this year. At No. 131 and third-to-last in the country on his experience chart, with a defense that could be the worst in the power five, Steele says it will be last place for Stanford.

Overall, it’s a list that very closely resembles last year’s standings, although Phil Steele is siding with USC to overcome Utah this year to take home the conference crown and maybe even make the College Football Playoff in year two of the Lincoln Riley experience.