Predicting the win-total ceiling, floor for Wisconsin in 2024

Wisconsin is heading into year two under Luke Fickell after going 7-5 in his debut season in Madison. Now, as he goes into his second season leading the Badgers, the question is whether they take some step forward or if it’s more of the same

On3’s Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire discussed all the floors and ceilings across the Big Ten on Monday, including those of Wisconsin. Staples began with his assessment by detailing what may have went wrong last fall for the Badgers, whether it was Fickell having a hard time finding his footing, the roster that he had to work with, or health issues during the year.

“(Fickell) did not have the kind of first year that he thought he would have,” said Staples. “He had a really wide-ranging interview with Jesse Temple of The Athletic in March that I thought was pretty interesting. He blamed a lot of it on himself – just sort of not understanding the landscape, not understanding the lay of the land. Also kind of not understanding the roster. Now, part of, some of this was like a backhanded shot at Paul Chryst. Like, you kind of read between the lines and there was a little bit of, ‘I thought this was Wisconsin?'”

“I think he’ll get more of that edge that you expected from a Luke Fickell team at Cincinnati this year at Wisconsin now that he has had a chance to really kind of make the roster his own,” Staples said. “Tyler Van Dyke comes in as the quarterback. When Tanner Mordecai was healthy last year, this team was competitive. It was when Tanner Mordecai and Chez Mellusi were hurt? That’s when everything fell apart.”

Bellaire agreed in that he sees a better season coming up in Camp Randall than the one that they just finished. However, much of that is riding on which Tyler Van Dyke, their top transfer quarterback from Miami, that they’re getting. How that addition works out will determine a lot in how he’ll think that they’ll be able to handle their schedule.

“I think this year could be the one where Fickell really turns the corner at Wisconsin. I mean, I think if you look at the roster, it’s actually pretty strong,” said Bellaire. “To your point with Tyler Van Dyke coming in, which version are they getting? Are they getting the one that’s the guy we’ve seen recently where he kind of panics in the pocket and he’s not able to hit his guys? Or are we getting the one that was considered at one point a top-two quarterback in the draft? Like, he was a top-two quarterback as a draft prospect.”

“What’s fortunate is that we get to figure this out sooner rather than later because, in Week 3, they get a big-time early test against Alabama. I’m very curious. I think that one’s going to be a real test,” Bellaire continued. “Then you follow that up with at USC. You also pull Oregon and Penn State but you do get both of them at home, which is very nice.”

That’s when the official picks came down from the two. Neither have Wisconsin reaching double-digit wins but both don’t have much variation in the final records with only two games of difference between the best and the worst.

Ceiling: 9-3

Staples and Bellaire agreed that 9-3 was the peak for the Badgers in 2024. Again, though, Bellaire’s prediction depends more on the fact that the team gets the ’21 edition of Van Dyke as opposed to the one from ’22 or ’23.

“If Tyler Van Dyke is the guy that we used to see? I think the ceiling for this team could be 9-3,” said Bellaire. “I really do think it’s on Tyler Van Dyke’s shoulders. The defense is going to be good, they’re going to have skill guys. Can he be consistent and can he put the ball in the paint for this Wisconsin offense?”

“That is where I have the ceiling,” Staples agreed. “9-3 is my ceiling for Wisconsin.”

Floor: 7-5

On the other hand, both of them had the bottom at 7-5. That won’t be what fans will be wanting but it’s still much better than where other programs could find themselves. It also might just be what you always get at worst with Fickell considering what he brings as a head coach.

“7-5 is my floor,” said Staples. “This is me giving Luke Fickell the benefit of the doubt for being Luke Fickell. I saw him at Cincinnati. He took over a dire roster situation, they went 4-8, and then, the next season, I believe they were 11-2. Like, this is how he operates.”

“Once he establishes that culture, you’re going to get a good baseline, high-floor program. That’s what you’re going to be.” Staples said. “Whether you’re a high-ceiling program? That remains to be seen. But I think they’re going to be a high-floor program and that’s where it is.”

Fickell is there at Wisconsin for a reason after his previous success, including a berth in the College Football Playoff. It’s just a matter of determining whether that kind of competitiveness is eventually on the table for Wisconsin based on how they develop and perform this season or if being respectably decent is more where they’re headed.

“I’m excited to see it because, when Fickell got hired, the fact that he took the Wisconsin job said to me that Wisconsin was ready to really, really compete,” said Staples. “I don’t think they would have been able to lure him away from Cincinnati had they not said, ‘Look, we’re going to play ball in NIL. We’re going to give you the resources you need. We actually want to win the Big Ten.'”

“I think the schedule gives you a nice thermometer for this too,” Bellaire added. “It’s a great way to say, ‘Hey, where are we at?’ – with ‘Bama at home, USC on the road. That’s going to give you a great sense of, ‘Hey, are we here to play? Or are we going to just stay in the middle of the road?'”