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Three takeaways from the NCAA committees Top 16 women's basketball rankings

Talia-HS-white-300x300by:Talia Goodman•02/16/25•

TaliaGoodmanWBB

NCAA Womens Basketball: South Carolina at UCLA
Nov 24, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; UCLA Bruins center Lauren Betts (51) celebrates blocking a shot with UCLA Bruins forward Angela Dugalic (32) during the first quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

The NCAA Division I Women’s Basketball Committee released their Top 16 early reveal on Sunday afternoon. Here are three takeaways from the following list:

*Note: this list was released prior to Sunday’s contests

  1. UCLA
  2. South Carolina
  3. Texas
  4. Notre Dame
  5. Southern California
  6. LSU
  7. UConn 
  8. NC State
  9. TCU
  10. Duke
  11. North Carolina
  12. Kansas State
  13. Kentucky
  14. Ohio State
  15. Oklahoma
  16. Tennessee

1. SEC on top

Six SEC teams appeared in the initial Top 16 – more than any other conference. South Carolina and Texas were near-locks for the No. 1-seeds at the time, but Oklahoma and Tennessee snuck in with the last two spots. 

The SEC has been the most competitive league in the country this season and the committee’s rankings reflect that. Although Kentucky, Oklahoma and Tennessee have all faced a few significant losses, they’ve earned a spot to host for now. 

South Carolina’s seeding may change after a shocking home loss to UConn on Sunday, but they’ll likely remain on the top half of this list for the remainder of the season, barring a major upset. 

Tennessee is a team that has been overlooked due to their six losses, but each loss has been by 7 points or less to teams that are currently in On3’s Top 25, including three teams ranked in the Top 10. The committee clearly saw value in these close margins, slotting them in to host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament at No. 16. 

2. NC State = biggest winner

The committee is higher on NC State than most, ranking them at No. 8 this time around. The AP Poll has the Wolfpack at No. 10 this week, while On3 has them at No. 14. NC State is 20-5 this season and 16-2 since a falter against LSU in November. 

The Wolfpack have earned notable wins over Ole Miss, Duke, Louisville and Florida State this year and each of their losses have come to ranked opponents. They’re ranked No. 19 in the NET and are 4-5 in Quadrant 1 games. 

3. Head-to-head results matter, but aren’t everything

There are a few key head-to-head results represented in the current committee rankings. UCLA remains ahead of South Carolina, who they beat early in non-conference play. Notre Dame stays ahead of USC, who they took down on that same day. UConn is ranked lower than both USC and Notre Dame, who they suffered losses to early on as well. Oklahoma is a spot above Tennessee, who they took down in a one-possession victory.

But there are a few head-to-head results that didn’t seem to matter much here. Duke is a spot ahead of UNC, Kansas State is below TCU and Notre Dame is below Texas. The remainder of these cases have been close results on the road, but it still reflects the notion that head-to-head results aren’t everything.