Texas High School Football Predictions - Sept. 26-27
Since Texas high school football has always been a hotbed of talent, there will be no shortage of exciting games during the fifth week of the 2024 season. However, out of the hundreds of games from Sept. 26-28, 2024, the ones featuring the top teams based on the latest Texas On3 Massey Ratings will attract the most attention.
These matches will gain interest from football fans and experts beyond the ‘Lone Star State’ because these squads are among the top 100 high school football teams nationwide. Therefore, here’s how every top-25 game in Texas this weekend might unfold.
The On3 Massey Ratings, officially used during the BCS era, is a model that ranks sports teams by analyzing game outcomes, strength of schedule, and margin of victory. According to the model, all 25 of the top 25 teams in Texas rank inside the top 100 nationwide.
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Top Texas High School Football games – Sept. 26
Humble @ #3 North Shore
While the Wildcats are undefeated after three games, they’ve won by an average margin of 9.7 points. Meanwhile, the Mustangs have the state’s second-best defense after allowing only 16 points to their first three foes. Taking inspiration from their school’s name, this is the game when Humble gets humbled by a national powerhouse squad.
Massey Ratings Prediction: North Shore 48, Humble 7
#2 Atascocita @ #23 King
The Panthers’ points per game average (32.7) suggests they can compete with the Eagles, which averages 38.3 per contest. However, King achieved that statistic without competing against a ranked opponent. Conversely, Atascocita defeated 13th-ranked Katy by 17 points and seventh-ranked Westlake by 18. This match should be a walk in the park for coach Craig Stump’s crew.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Atascocita 40, King 14
#12 Aledo @ Fossil Ridge
While the Panthers broke their three-game losing skid by defeating Granbury, the Bearcats are still on another level. Aledo is coming off consecutive shutout victories against Brewer and Birdville. Even the scoring averages of both teams are not close, with Aledo norming 46.8 points per game while Fossil Ridge at 19.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Aledo 46, Fossil Ridge 7
Heritage @ #18 Lone Star
After winning their first two games, the Coyotes fell to Frisco by one point. Conversely, Lone Star’s record has remained immaculate after four games, beating Argyle, Garland, McKinney North, and Centennial. The Rangers have the momentum, which helps them rope an easy victory over Heritage.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Lone Star 44, Heritage 10
Granbury @ #22 Ryan
Granbury’s first (and only) victory in the 2024 Texas high school football season came by forfeiture. Since then, they’ve dropped three straight games by an average margin of 12.6 points. On the other hand, the Raiders have rediscovered their rhythm after outscoring Mansfield Timberview and Fossil Ridge, 84-3. Playing at home should give Ryan much advantage in what could be a shutout victory.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Ryan 42, Granbury 0
#13 Katy @ Seven Lakes
After losing to second-ranked Atascocita, Katy surrendered seven points each during their victories against Morton Ranch and Cinco Ranch. Meanwhile, while Seven Lakes have two wins in three games, they’ve scored only 24 points in those victories. That low output won’t be enough to match the Tigers’ offensive firepower.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Katy 45, Seven Lakes 7
Top Texas High School Football games – Sept. 27
Hebron @ #17 Coppell
The Hawks may have won two of their first three games in the 2024 Texas high school football season, but they had to pull off a come-from-behind one-point victory over Lancaster by scoring 14 fourth-quarter points. Conversely, the Cowboys cruised to their third consecutive win by pouring 72 points against Bowie. It wouldn’t be impossible for Coppell to earn another lopsided victory over Hebron.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Coppell 45, Hebron 20
#6 DeSoto @ WaxahachieThe Indians haven’t won against a top-25 team, losing to 17th-ranked Coppell and top-ranked Duncanville. Meanwhile, DeSoto has two shutout victories in their first four games, including a 71-0 demolition of Mesquite. The Eagles may not have an unblemished record, but their only loss came against fifth-ranked North Crowley. Therefore, DeSoto should easily win despite being the road team.
Massey Ratings Prediction: DeSoto 46, 14
Mansfield Legacy @ #5 North Crowley
The Broncos haven’t broken through the win column in four matches. They’ve had close fights, like their five-point loss to Chisholm Trail and six-point loss to South Grand Prairie. However, there are also blowouts, like their 31-point deficit versus Rockwall-Heath. Meanwhile, North Crowley has no such problems, as proven in their 70-17 beatdown of Rockwall. The Panthers should emerge victorious against Mansfield Legacy, given they also have a home-field advantage.
Massey Ratings Prediction: North Crowley 45, Mansfield Legacy 7
Timber Creek @ #4 Southlake Carroll
The Falcons’ and Dragons’ 4-0 records are unequal. Timber Creek won 10-7 over Rock Hill and earned a four-point victory against South Grand Prairie. Meanwhile, Southlake Carroll defeated 19th-ranked Byron Nelson and haven’t scored fewer than 33 points in their first four wins. Playing at home increases Southlake Carroll’s chances for a fifth victory in as many games.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Southlake Carroll 49, Timber Creek 14
#8 Summer Creek @ Channelview
The Falcons remain winless after suffering three one-point losses to Pasadena Memorial, Aldine MacArthur, and Clear Creek. Conversely, the Bulldogs haven’t allowed a single point in their three victories. Summer Creek should have a lopsided win, even if Channelview will play at home.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Summer Creek 47, Channelview 7
#9 Allen @ McKinney
The Lions are coming off two consecutive victories after their season-opening loss to Frisco Emerson. However, they earned those wins from lesser-heralded teams, Lakeview Centennial and Plano. Meanwhile, the Eagles have allowed an average of 9.5 points per game in their four victories. McKinney might have the home-field advantage, but Allen has the superior roster.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Allen 42, McKinney 19
#11 Guyer @ Flower Mound
The Jaguars have a better record than the 11th-ranked Wildcats. Flower Mound won their first three games against Bowie, Wylie, and Lake Highlands. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are coming off a loss to North Crowley. However, Flower Mound won two of their three victories by two and four points, respectively. The Jaguars may be undefeated, but Guyer is on a different level than the teams they’ve defeated earlier in the 2024 Texas high school football season.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Guyer 45, Flower Mound 14
Cleveland @ #21 Willis
The Indians and the Wildkats have contrasting tales. Cleveland remains winless while being outscored 210-20 after four games. Meanwhile, Willis is 4-0, including a three-point victory against the Woodlands. They have scored 111 points in their last two games alone. The Indians have little chance of defeating the Wildkats, especially with Willis playing at home.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Willis 49, Cleveland 7
#20 Prosper @ Plano East
The Prosper Eagles average 39.3 points per game, while the Plano East Panthers average 40. Those numbers should indicate a close fight, especially with Plano East (4-0) having a better record. However, Prosper lost its season-opener to seventh-ranked Westlake and followed it with two impressive victories. Despite that defeat, the Panthers are no match to Prosper, which will earn its third victory in four games.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Prosper 42, Plano East 14
Trinity @ #19 Byron Nelson
Coincidentally, both teams are coming off a loss to Southlake Carroll. Before the defeat, Trinity had convincing victories over Strake Jesuit, Midland Legacy, and Keller Central. Meanwhile, Byron Nelson won against Frenship and Lewisville. While the Trojans have a higher per-game scoring average, the Bobcats could prevail in a close fight.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Byron Nelson 43, Trinity 35
#1 Duncanville @ Skyline
Skyline has been on a roller coaster ride, with their shutout victory over Crowley sandwiched between their losses against Fort Bend Marshall and Cedar Hill. Conversely, Duncanville remains undefeated after three games, and their victims include St. Frances Academy, Maryland’s top-ranked team. Texas high school football’s top-ranked squad should have no problems extending their winning streak to four games.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Duncanville 46, Skyline 6
#10 Lake Travis @ Bowie
Both teams’ undefeated records will be on the line as the Bulldogs host the tenth-ranked Cavaliers. Their per-game scoring average (Lake Travis—49.8, Bowie—41.8) suggests a match that could go down to the final drive. However, the caliber of the teams the Cavaliers defeated had more weight than those Bowie conquered. Therefore, Lake Travis should easily win while handing Bowie their first loss in this Texas high school football season.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Lake Travis 42, Bowie 14
#24 South Oak Cliff @ Adamson
The Bears followed up losses against North Shore and Duncanville with victories over Longview and Spruce. Meanwhile, the Leopards are on a three-game winning streak after dropping their season opener to Sunset. While Adamson has the better record, they haven’t encountered a team like South Oak Cliff this season. With the Bears coming off a shutout win over Spruce, Adamson may suffer the same fate despite playing at home.
Massey Ratings Prediction: South Oak Cliff 46, Adamson 0
#16 Celina @ Panther Creek
Panther Creek has been crushing the opposition in its 4-0 start, winning its games by an average of 39 points. Likewise, they’ve never scored lower than 42 points in those games. However, the Bobcats are an upgrade from the teams they’ve beaten because they are also at 4-0. The Panthers might not have enough offensive firepower to match Celina’s attack.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Celina 42, Panther Creek 26
Hallsville @ #15 Texas High
The Bobcats are at 1-3 following their Sept. 20 loss to Hallsville. Meanwhile, Texas High is 4-0 after a monumental one-point victory over Fayetteville, Arkansas’ sixth-best team. The Tigers have also reached the 50-point mark in their last three games, something they could do against Hallsville. Likewise, playing at home should also work in Texas High’s favor.
Massey Ratings Prediction: Texas High 48, Hallsville 14
#14 A&M Consolidated @ Anderson
After winning their first two games by 59 points combined, 25th-ranked College Station humbled the Trojans with a 34-17 decision. Meanwhile, A&M Consolidated dominated the same team that defeated Anderson 34-20. Those games should justify that the undefeated Tigers are overwhelming favorites to beat the Trojans.
Massey Ratings Prediction: A&M Consolidated 43, Anderson 14
Lehman @ #25 College Station
Lehman remains winless after four games, and it’s not encouraging that they lost their most recent match by 79 points. Conversely, College Station may have lost to A&M Consolidated but it’s to a team included among the best Texas high school football teams. It would be shocking for the winless Lobos to pull off an upset against the Cougars.
Massey Ratings Prediction: College Station 48, Lehman 6
Not Playing This Week: #7 Westlake