10 recruiting storylines that will define run-up to early signing period

We’re officially less than 30 days from the start of college football recruiting’s early signing period on Dec. 15. There are 11 On3 Consensus five-star prospects who have yet to make their commitments. Plus, with so many prime coaching jobs already open, this silly season will be unlike any we’ve seen before.

On3 already has previewed the 10 teams dominating recruiting heading into the most critical time of the year. Now, we’re taking a look at the 10 recruiting storylines that will dominate the headlines during the run-up to the start of the early signing period.

Can Aggies finish No. 1 in recruiting?

After Texas A&M landed a commitment Tuesday from No. 6 running back Le’veon Moss, the Aggies firmly entrenched themselves as the third-ranked recruiting class in the On3 2022 Consensus Team Recruiting Ranking. Now, the biggest question with A&M is whether it can push past Alabama or Georgia to land its first-ever No. 1 recruiting class.

The Aggies trail No. 1 Alabama and No. 2 Georgia by only .0782 points. Alabama has 94.238 points, Georgia has 94.073 and A&M is at 93.456.

The Aggies have 18 commitments in a class that’s headlined by Five-Star Plus+ DL Walter Nolen, On3 Consensus five-star S Bryce Anderson and five-star QB Conner Weigman.

To push past the Crimson Tide and Dawgs, Texas A&M will likely need to reel in Five-Star Plus+ WR Evan Stewart of Frisco (Texas) Liberty, five-star DL Shemar Stewart of Miami Monsignor Pace, five-star LB Harold Perkins of Cypress (Texas) Cy Park and/or some additional top targets.

The good news is that A&M is sitting in good shape with most of those names. The bad news is that Alabama and Georgia have top targets on their list, too. But if A&M pulls in even a fraction of its final targets, it’s going to get very, very interesting.

Where will Marvin Jones sign?

Five-star EDGE Marvin Jones Jr. of Plantation (Fla.) American Heritage is the nation’s No. 1 player. Jones returned from his official visit to Florida State this past weekend and narrowed his list to five schools – FSU, Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.

Intel from On3’s Chad Simmons indicates the Seminoles have made a move on his list. But will it be enough to overcome Oklahoma?

Where Jones lands will go a long way toward determining whether Florida State (his dad’s alma mater) signs a top-10 class or if Oklahoma can push into the top five.

Will Alabama land most 5 stars ever?

While there definitely is a path for A&M to land the No. 1 class in the country, there’s also a clear path for Alabama to potentially sign the most five stars in the modern era of recruiting.

Georgia currently holds that distinction, with eight in the 2018 class. The Dawgs also signed seven in 2019, a feat that was matched by the Crimson Tide in the 2014 class.

But with less than a month to the start of the early signing period, Alabama has four On3 Consensus five stars already committed. And there’s a long list of five stars still looking at the Tide.

One is CB Domani Jackson, who backed away from his commitment to USC this past weekend and is trending toward the Tide. Then there is five-star DL Anthony Lucas, who is looking hard at Alabama along with LSU, Miami, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas A&M, UCLA and USC.

Alabama is also a threat with five-star OT Denver Harris and five-star OT Kiyaunta Goodwin; the Tide also is in the top five for Jone. You never know what tricks Nick Saban has up his sleeves.

Will Walter Nolen stay true?

Another factor in answering the above question is whether Nolen sticks with his commitment to Texas A&M. As On3’s Chad Simmons pointed out last week, even though he’s committed to the Aggies, Nolen’s recruitment is not over.

He’s still set to take an official visit with Tennessee. Plus, it’ll be interesting to see if Alabama makes another push.

In the end, this recruitment will not be over until Nolen’s papers are signed. “As I have been saying for a while now, it is down to Texas A&M and Tennessee, and, yes, the Aggies are the leader but do not expect the Vols to go away,” Simmons said.

Who gets hired at LSU?

Even though LSU is seeking a new coach, prospects still are looking heavily at LSU. The Tigers have the 12th-best class in the country and many of their top commitments, such as five-star OT Will Campbell, have reaffirmed their pledges to the school in the past few weeks.

With the right hire, LSU could put itself quickly in a position to land one of the nation’s best classes. The pieces are there, with top targets – like Perkins and five-star in-state S Jacoby Mathews – still high on the Tigers, to sign a top-five class.

It’s all going to depend on who gets the job. If it’s somebody like Michigan State’s Mel Tucker, Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley, or Penn State’s James Franklin, recruits will be fired up and likely will jump on board. But if it’s somebody that doesn’t resonate, it might not be enough to turn things around with some of the top uncommitted targets.

Will the Longhorns rebound?

What recruiting momentum the Texas Longhorns had in recruiting is long, long gone after the historically bad loss to Kansas. Couple that with A&M regaining control of the narrative of “Who is the best program in the Lone Star State?” and it’s a bleak outlook for Texas.

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is going to have to conjure some recruiting magic to flip the script.

“Texas’ best pitch right now is the ability to play right away for offensive line targets, Harold Perkins, Evan Stewart and defensive backs,” On3’s Gerry Hamilton said. “It has resonated somewhat with a couple of offensive line targets. But it remains to be seen if that will get pen to paper in December.”

Texas still has a top-10 class, with a lot of quality commitments to get Longhorns fans excited. But before the losing streak started, there were dreams of a potential No. 1 class and multiple five-star prospects coming UT’s way.

Can Sarkisian flip the script? How the Longhorns finish definitely will be one of the defining storylines to follow over the next month.

Who gets hired at USC?

Much like LSU, the USC vacancy is a prime coaching opening. Plenty of top-level names are being mentioned as candidates. One name that is starting to heat up as a candidate is Baylor’s Dave Aranda, while Cincinnati’s Luke Fickell, Iowa State’s Matt Campbell and Franklin are other names mentioned by national writers.

Each would present interesting and different recruiting dynamics. Many of them don’t have natural ties to the Pac-12 recruiting footprint, so keeping some key assistants on staff – namely Trojans’ interim coach Donte Williams – will be important. Yet, all of the names being mentioned are talented recruiters.

With the right hire, USC can quickly rebound with recruits and pump life into a class that currently sits outside of the top 20 and is bleeding commitments.

Where does Xavier Nwankpa commit?

Five-star S Xavier Nwankpa is the top uncommitted prospect in the Midwest, and he’s down to Ohio State, Iowa and Notre Dame. There is intel that Nwankpa may have Iowa and Ohio State at the top of his list. There is also talk the Buckeyes are trending over the in-state Hawkeyes.

Landing Nwankpa should be enough to cement Ohio State as a top-five class. For Iowa, he’s about as important of a local prospect that we’ve seen in the Kirk Ferentz era.

No matter where he goes, it’s an important storyline to monitor until he announces Dec. 8.

What happens with committed QBs?

Four-star quarterbacks Walker Howard and Devin Brown are committed to schools that are looking for a coach.

Howard, an LSU legacy, has been committed to the in-state Tigers since June 2020. But with the future still murky in Baton Rouge, Howard has started to open up communication with other schools, namely Notre Dame. He took a visit to South Bend a couple of weeks ago and the Irish have his attention. Howard still will be extremely hard to flip. But that he’s looking around is a major storyline.

It’s a similar situation for Brown, a longtime USC commitment. Brown has taken official visits to Ole Miss and Texas, and Ohio State is starting to ramp up interest. UCLA and BYU also are in hot pursuit.

On3 says there’s a 40% chance Brown flips his commitment. That number will remain high until the coaching situation is sorted out at USC.

Recruiting surprises out of left field

Many of the stories college football coaches tell about the drama surrounding signing day seem too good to be true. But when dealing with 17- and 18-year-olds, they often are. It’s why the early signing period has become one of the biggest spectacles in college athletics. Fans love every second of it, but coaches have learned to expect the unexpected.

With so much movement in the coaching ranks this season, we could be in store for some epic decommitments, last-minute switches and storylines that we never anticipated.