2022 coach series: A look at the hot-seat coaches

Over the next three weeks, we’ll tell you about coordinators ready to become head coaches, rising-star assistants, the hottest 45-and-under head coaches, support staffers you should know, even up-and-coming strength coaches.

First, though, let’s examine the one thing that gets all those other things moving. Today we’re taking a look at the FBS coaches who are on the hottest seats entering the 2022 season.

Being a FBS coach certainly has its challenges, and one is a lack of job security: The 131 current FBS coaches have been in their jobs for an average of just 3.7 years. A good bet is that a handful of these hot-seat coaches will lose their jobs this season; another good bet is that there will be some who have good seasons and will have the same job next year.

We’ve broken down the list by Power 5 and Group of 5 coaches, and coaches are listed alphabetically within those groups.

Power 5 coaches

Dino Babers, Syracuse
The numbers: 29-43 entering seventh season
The buzz: The Orange won 10 games in 2018 in Babers’ third season, and it was fair to think the program had turned the corner. Alas, Syracuse has won a combined 11 games in the ensuing three seasons, meaning the Orange has had a losing record in five of Babers’ six seasons. Making it six for seven would not be a good look.

Neal Brown, West Virginia
The numbers: 17-18 entering fourth season
The buzz: WVU had enjoyed five consecutive winning seasons when Brown was hired. But the Mountaineers haven’t had a winning record under Brown. Part of that is that recruiting dropped off a bit in the final two years under Dana Holgorsen. But another part is that WVU has been inconsistent on offense, a surprise considering that is Brown’s specialty. There’s a new coordinator (Graham Harrell) and a new quarterback (J.T. Daniels), and improvement on that side of the ball may determine if Brown’s tenure continues.

Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech
The numbers: 9-25 entering fourth season
The buzz: Collins looked like the right hire when it was made, but it hasn’t worked out – at least not yet. There have been just seven ACC wins in his three seasons. Tech has been egregiously bad on defense during Collins’ tenure, a big surprise considering his defensive background. Tech went to a bowl every season from 1997-2014, and also went in 2016 and ’18. There’s no reason for the Jackets to be this bad.

Karl Dorrell, Colorado
The numbers: 8-10 entering third season
The buzz: Dorrell was a surprise choice after Mel Tucker left for Michigan following his lone season with the Buffs in 2019. Dorrell then led Colorado to a 4-2 mark in the truncated 2020 season and won over some detractors. Alas, the offense was atrocious last season and may not be appreciably better this fall. At some point, Colorado – which has had six coaches this century and five since 2010 – needs some stability. But a losing record this season will cause more than a few people to wonder if Dorrell can provide that stability.

Herm Edwards, Arizona State
The numbers: 25-18 entering fifth season
The buzz: That Edwards is back for a fifth season is somewhat surprising considering the Sun Devils’ situation with the NCAA. Numerous staff changes and a talent drain via the portal means it could be tough to get to .500 this season. That could mean the end for Edwards.

Scott Frost, Nebraska
The numbers: 15-29 entering fifth season
The buzz: Following the 2020 season, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh took a pay cut and shook up his staff; the Wolverines ended the season in the College Football Playoff. Frost took a pay cut and shook up his staff after last season; will it change things? That he is an all-time Huskers hero certainly is a positive for him, but it seems impossible that he will survive another losing season. The Huskers have had five consecutive losing seasons, including one under Frost predecessor Mike Riley. The last Huskers coach to have five consecutive losing seasons was William Jennings (1957-61); he was fired after the ’61 season and replaced by Bob Devaney, who oversaw Nebraska’s rise to national prominence.

Bryan Harsin, Auburn
The numbers: 6-7 entering second season
The buzz: It looked as if Harsin was on his way out in February, but he’s back for his second season. Still, you have to figure that the folks who wanted him out then still have their doubts. Auburn lost a lot in the transfer portal, and it’s going to be tough to finish on the positive side of .500 in the tough SEC West.

Chip Kelly, UCLA
The numbers: 18-25 entering fifth season
The buzz: The Bruins were 8-4 last season for Kelly’s first winning record at UCLA. It was UCLA’s first winning season since 2015, and it looks as if the program has stabilized. But none of the eight wins came against a team that finished with a winning record, and both Arizona State and Utah blasted the Bruins. In short, some questions remain. The schedule isn’t difficult, so it’s hard to imagine the Bruins finishing with a losing record. But if they do, you wonder if Kelly is back for 2023.

Mike Norvell, Florida State
The numbers: 8-13 entering third season
The buzz: There likely is distaste at the idea of making another coaching change, but predecessor Willie Taggart didn’t even make it two full seasons. A third consecutive under-.500 season presumably would make it difficult for Norvell to return. Yes, the school still is paying off Taggart’s buyout. But the AD who hired Norvell is gone and the current streak of four consecutive losing seasons is the school’s longest since 1973-76. FSU never has had five losing seasons in a row.

Scott Satterfield, Louisville
The numbers: 18-19 entering fourth season
The buzz: Satterfield talked with South Carolina following the 2020 season, when the Gamecocks hired Shane Beamer, and his record and that flirtation has left a lot of Cardinals fans miffed. Plus, the AD who hired Satterfield is gone (and Vince Tyra wasn’t exactly beloved by the fan base, anyway). Recruiting is going well for the 2023 class, but it’s hard to see Satterfield surviving a losing record this fall.

Group of 5 coaches

Tim Albin, Ohio
The numbers: 3-9 entering second season
The buzz: Albin was promoted from offensive coordinator when Frank Solich retired last July, and the bottom proceeded to drop out for the Bobcats. Ohio’s 3-9 mark was the first losing record since 2008 and the worst since a 2-10 mark in 2003. The timing of Solich’s departure limited Ohio’s options, and Albin must find a way to rev up the offense.

Marcus Arroyo, UNLV
The numbers: 2-16 entering third season
The buzz: Perhaps it’s unfair to judges coaches who took over following the 2019 season, as Arroyo did, because of the way COVID impacted the 2020 season. And it’s not as if Arroyo took over a solid program: Last season’s was the eighth consecutive losing record for UNLV and the program has had just two winning records this century. But the AD who hired Arroyo no longer is at UNLV, and there are heightened expectations because of improved facilities and playing home games at the Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium.

Mike Bloomgren, Rice
The numbers: 11-31 entering fifth season
The buzz: Rice is one of the most difficult jobs in the FBS ranks. The school has legitimately difficult academic requirements, and the heyday of Owls football is long past (in the 1940s and ’50s). Bloomgren came from Stanford, so he is used to recruiting with academic restrictions. And he took over a program that had won a combined four games in the two seasons before his arrival. But 11 wins in four seasons leaves him vulnerable.

Danny Gonzales, New Mexico
The numbers: 5-14 entering fourth season
The buzz: Last season’s 3-9 mark was the 12^th time in 14 seasons that the Lobos finished with a losing record, so it’s not as if things have gone bad fast under Gonzales. Still, some improvement needs to happen this season. Gonzales is a defense-first coach, and that group was solid last season. The offense? Oh, my – any bad descriptive word fits. The Lobos averaged 12.2 points and 234.9 yards per game, and an otherworldly bad 3.9 yards per play. Even a modicum of improvement on offense could mean a .500 record.

Seth Littrell, North Texas
The numbers: 37-38 entering seventh season
The buzz: North Texas has had three consecutive losing seasons after back-to-back years with nine wins. And there were rumblings last season about Littrell until the Mean Green got hot down the stretch to get to a bowl at 6-6; it lost to Miami (Ohio) in the Frisco Football Classic. This is UNT’s last season in Conference USA as it preps to move to the AAC; might it have a new coach when it moves into its new conference?

Scott Loeffler, Bowing Green
The numbers: 7-22 entering fourth season
The buzz: The Falcons won 10 games in 2015 under Dino Babers; they’ve won just 16 games in the ensuing six seasons. Bowling Green was 0-5 in 2020, then 4-8 last season. If there is incremental progress again this season, Loeffler should be fine.

Philip Montgomery, Tulsa
The numbers: 38-46 entering eighth season
The buzz: Montgomery won 10 games in his second season but hasn’t won more than seven in any other season; included in his tenure are four losing records. Tulsa played nine one-possession games last season and kept it close at Ohio State until the fourth quarter; it had six one-possession contests in 2020’s nine-game season. The Golden Hurricane aren’t that far away; they just need to make one or two more plays per game.

Ken Niumatalolo, Navy
The numbers: 105-75 entering 15^th season
The buzz: There were issues last season between Niumatalolo and AD Chet Gladchuk. The AD fired offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper after a Game 2 loss to Air Force; Niumatalolo wanted Jasper on staff and was able to convince Gladchuk to let Jasper remain the quarterback coach. “It was an unfortunate situation,” Niumatalolo told reporters in a Zoom call at the time. “There’s some emotion involved, obviously. We lost a big game. Some things happen in the locker room, but cooler heads have prevailed.” Navy won 11 games in 2019, but the Midshipmen have won a combined seven games the past two seasons.

Jeff Scott, USF
The numbers: 3-18 entering third season
The buzz: Scott received a two-year contract extension this offseason, but the buyout is just $500,000. There are new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and Scott and his staff did a nice job in the transfer portal, including landing former Baylor QB Gerry Bohanon. The schedule may preclude noticeable improvement, though.

Ryan Silverfield, Memphis
The numbers: 14-10 entering third season
The buzz: Memphis has slid down the AAC pecking order, as evidenced by it 3-5 league mark last season; it was the Tigers’ first losing league record since 2013. Predecessors Justin Fuente and Mike Norvell moved on to Power 5 jobs after having success at Memphis. To potentially do the same, Silverfield needs to find a way to fix his defense – and soon.

Jake Spavital, Texas State
The numbers: 9-27 entering fourth season
The buzz: The Bobcats have had just one winning record (7-5 in 2014) since moving to the FBS ranks in 2012, so it’s not as if Spavital took over a program in decent shape. But he has relied extremely heavily on the transfer portal, and that has not paid off. In addition, the Sun Belt Conference has added four teams and Texas State is in danger of sliding even further down the league pecking order.

Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State
The numbers: 101-98 entering 17^th season
The buzz: Stockstill has taken MTSU to nine bowls, but the Blue Raiders have been above .500 in C-USA play just once in the past five seasons. And C-USA isn’t exactly filled with juggernaut programs. Stockstill, who turns 65 in December, has a rebuilt offense and faces a schedule with seven road games this season.