Numbers game: Projecting 2022’s 3,000-yard passers

A good portion of every offseason, no matter the sport, is spent projecting how teams will do. Every fan in every sport knows the drill: Can that team finish first in its division? Can this team avoid a last-place finish? Who makes the playoffs?

Today, we’re doing some individual projections, specifically predicting who will be 3,000-yard passers this season.

Over the past five full seasons (not counting the COVID-ravaged fall of 2020), there have been an average 34.6 3,000-yard passers each season. The high was 37 in 2016; the low was 33 in 2017.

Here’s the prediction of this season’s 3,000-yard passers, listed alphabetically by league. (We predicted the 1,000-yard rushers Friday and will project the 1,000-yard receivers Sunday.)

Also of note: Players denoted with an asterisk were 3,000-yard passers last season.

AAC

East Carolina: Holton Ahlers*. Ahlers again will be at the controls of what should be a productive offense this fall.

Houston: Clayton Tune*. With standout RB Alton McCaskill likely to miss the season with a torn ACL, Houston’s passing attack becomes even more important.

Memphis: Seth Henigan*. A go-to receiver needs to step up to help Henigan.

Tulsa: Davis Brin*. Brin was way too mistake-prone last season, when he threw 16 picks.

ACC

Boston College: Phil Jurkovec. A healthy Jurkovec changes BC’s offense.

Louisville: Malik Cunningham. He should run for 1,000 yards and throw for 3,000.

Miami: Tyler Van Dyke. He began last season as the backup, but showed off a strong arm when he became the starter.

NC State: Devin Leary*. Leary set a single-season school record last season with 35 TD passes.

Virginia: Brennan Armstrong*. Armstrong threw for 4,449 yards last season. He may not reach those heights again with a new coaching staff, but he’s going to be productive.

Virginia Tech: Grant Wells*. Wells, who arrived from Marshall via the transfer portal, has a big arm, but throws too many picks.

Wake Forest: Sam Hartman*. Hartman also threw for 4,000-plus yards last season. He’s a good bet to do it again.

Big Ten

Maryland: Taulia Tagovailoa*. Tua’s younger brother has a nice group of receivers with whom to work.

Michigan State: Payton Thorne*. He was overshadowed by RB Kenneth Walker III last season, but should get more attention this fall.

Nebraska: Casey Thompson. The Texas transfer is playing for a coordinator (Mark Whipple) who likes to throw it around.

Ohio State: C.J. Stroud*. The Ohio State single-season passing record is 4,831 yards; Stroud figures to challenge that mark this season.

Penn State: Sean Clifford*. There’s a good receiving corps and the rushing attack should be better than it was last season, which will take some pressure off Clifford.

Purdue: Aidan O’Connell*. O’Connell, who began his career as a walk-on, was a revelation last season. But he will miss star WR David Bell.

Big 12

Iowa State: Hunter Dekkers. Four-year starting QB Brock Purdy is gone, and now it’s Dekkers’ turn.

Oklahoma: Dillon Gabriel. One of the key acquisitions nationally out of the transfer portal. Gabriel, who arrives from UCF, should put up big numbers in OU’s new offense.

Oklahoma State: Spencer Sanders. Sanders will be a four-year starter and it’s time to show better decision-making skills (he has thrown 31 picks in three seasons).

TCU: Max Duggan (or Chandler Morris). Duggan has started for three seasons and is an effective runner. Can he throw it as well as new coach Sonny Dykes wants? If not, Morris will get a shot. Dykes’ offense puts up big passing numbers, so the starter is getting to 3,000.

Texas: Quinn Ewers. He figures to be the starter, and has big-time weapons on the outside (WRs Xavier Worthy and Isaiah Neyor) and behind him (RB Bijan Robinson).

Texas Tech: The starter. We’re chickening out on a name because the new staff likely won’t pick a starter until late in summer camp. Tyler Shough and Donovan Smith are vying for the job. The new OC is Zach Kittley and his quarterback last season (Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe) threw for almost 6,000 yards and 62 TDs.

Conference USA

FAU: N’Kosi Perry. If Perry, a fifth-year senior who began his career at Miami, takes the next step, a 3,000-yard season easily should be within reach.

Old Dominion: Hayden Wolff. He became the starter down the stretch in 2021 and put up good numbers. And he has good receivers.

UTEP: Gavin Hardison*. While UTEP prefers to run it, the strong-armed Hardison can wing it. But who’s the go-to receiver with Jacob Cowing now at Arizona?

UTSA: Frank Harris*. With two-time 1,000-yard rusher Sincere McCormick gone, the Roadrunners figure to rely more on Harris this season.

Western Kentucky: Jarret Doege*. He threw for 3,000 last season at West Virginia and now gets to play in an extremely pass-happy attack.

Independents

None.

Mid-American

None.

Mountain West

Boise State: Hank Bachmeier*. Injuries and protection issues have hampered Bachmeier throughout much of his career. Can he put it all together this season?

Colorado State: Clay Millen. He saw mop-up duty in two games last season as a true freshman at Nevada, then followed coach Jay Norvell to Colorado State. Norvell’s offense is quarterback-friendly, and Millen has a nice arm.

Fresno State: Jake Haener*. He threw for 4,096 last season and is the nation’s No. 5 returning passer.

San Jose State: Chevan Cordeiro. The Hawaii transfer will work with a solid receiving corps but behind an iffy line.

Utah State: Logan Bonner*. He threw for 3,628 yards and 36 TDs in helping the Aggies win the conference title last season.

Pac-12

Arizona: Jayden de Laura. The Washington State transfer is a nice fit for Jedd Fisch’s offense, and UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing should be his go-to receiver.

Stanford: Tanner McKee. McKee has talent; he needs to consistently show it this season.

USC: Caleb Williams. He followed coach Lincoln Riley to L.A. and obviously knows the offense.

Washington State: Cameron Ward. Ward again will work with Eric Morris, who was his head coach last season at FCS Incarnate Word and now is the Cougars’ OC.

SEC

Alabama: Bryce Young*. Alabama’s receiving corps won’t be as good as last season’s, but that shouldn’t faze Young in the least.

Kentucky: Will Levis. He threw 13 picks last season and that number has to come down.

Mississippi State: Will Rogers*. The question with Rogers isn’t whether he will throw for 3,000 yards; rather, it’s will he complete 75 percent of his passes. Don’t laugh: He was at 73.9 percent last season.

Ole Miss: Jaxson Dart. There’s a really good bunch of receivers, a stud running back and a good line. Everything is there for a big season from Dart, a USC transfer.

South Carolina: Spencer Rattler. Can the Oklahoma transfer regain his 2020 form? If so, 3,000 is a lock.

Tennessee: Hendon Hooker. He was 55 yards shy of 3,000 last season; he won’t come up short this fall.

Sun Belt

Coastal Carolina: Grayson McCall. He threw for 2,873 yards last season despite missing two games.