Before you fill out your NCAA tournament bracket, read this

Trying to win NCAA tournament bracket pools is maddening. 

There are so many ways to predict winners. Lean on the best conferences, the best coaches, the best point guards, the best defenses, the No. 1 seeds, the teams with NBA-caliber talent who happen to stay an extra year in school, etc.

Then again, some choose the meanest mascots, which may be as good a strategy as any. 

Spoiler alert: Winning bracket pools is hard.

But if you want your decisions rooted in strong historical trends to accurately predict national champions, check this out. Ken Pomeroy’s analytical web site (kenpom.com) is an invaluable treasure trove of data for college basketball fans/media/coaches/everybody. Following these trends will lead you to a short list of programs this season most likely to celebrate long into the night next month in New Orleans.

A special thanks to Will Warren, a University of Tennessee graduate and self-described statistics-obsessed individual who dove deep into data in a blog post. Warren posted the statistical trends on March 10, 2020, mere days before the COVID-19 pandemic forced the cancellation of the NCAA tournament.

After I updated the trends to include Baylor’s pre-tournament kenpom.com stats from 2021, here’s the deal on who history tells us will win this season.

+ 17 of the past 19 champions (exceptions were UConn in 2014 and Baylor in 2021) entered the tournament ranked among top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Who fits that criteria this season?

Fifteen teams: Arizona, Arkansas, Auburn, Baylor, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Murray State, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, UConn and Villanova.

+ There’s more: 8 of the past 9 champions ranked in the top 7 in offensive or defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. Among the teams above, who fits that criteria? This will eliminate a lot of teams, leaving us with squads that are elite and also surging.

Five teams: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, Kentucky and Tennessee.

+ And now this: 16 of the past 19 champions ranked in the top 6 in the overall KenPom ratings entering the tournament. Among the five above, who also fits that criteria?

Four teams: Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas and Kentucky

+ So only basketball blue bloods remain. (Disregard public perception; what Gonzaga has accomplished the past two decades qualifies the Zags as a blue blood.) But wait: The No. 1 team in KenPom’s pre-tournament rankings has won just 3 times in 19 tournaments. Given that trend, let’s cross off Gonzaga. Who’s left?

The big three: Arizona, Kansas and Kentucky

Choose who you wish to win the national championship. But if it’s not one of the three teams above, you’ll be defying a handful of important historic statistical trends. Amid the dizzying flurry of upsets and madness, history points to Kentucky, Arizona or Kansas winning the title. Something to keep in mind while filling out your bracket.

Or you can always go back to the mascot strategy.

(NCAA tournament region breakdowns: Kentucky is in the East, Arizona is in the South and Kansas is in the Midwest. None of the final three is in the West.)