2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: Final projection

Sometime after the final buzzer sounded in Tennessee’s victory over Texas A&M in the SEC tournament final, A&M coach Buzz Williams undoubtedly got word of another final score, from Washington, D.C., one providing an additional dose of bad news for the Aggies: Richmond 64, Davidson 62.

The sixth-seeded Spiders rallied to beat top-seeded Davidson in the Atlantic 10 final, thus stealing an automatic NCAA tournament berth. While there are no guarantees before the 68-team bracket is unveiled, Davidson — by virtue of a strong road record and an early-season victory over Alabama in Birmingham — has a relatively strong chance to steal an at-large berth from one of the teams on the fringes of the field.

With Richmond winning the A-10 tournament, the final On3 bracket projection includes Davidson as one of the final at-large bids. As a result, On3 took Wyoming out of the field and kept in Texas A&M. During the regular season, Wyoming’s best win outside of its state was against Northern Iowa. Texas A&M accomplished much more than that in two days in Tampa, beating Auburn and Arkansas on a neutral court.

But it’s also high anxiety time for Rutgers, whose slew of impressive Big Ten victories are offset by a bad November week that included losses to Lafayette (at home) and UMass. And Notre Dame, even though it was the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament, also is sweating in these final hours. 

The bubble always shrinks during the final few days before Selection Sunday. It happens every year. And because of it, one team likely will now be on the outside looking in. Here is the final On3 NCAA tournament projection. Teams in bold type earned automatic bids.

No. 1 seeds

1. Gonzaga (West Coast)
2. Arizona (Pac-12)
3. Kansas (Big 12)
4. Baylor
Buzz: Gonzaga is expected to be the top overall seed with the victory over rival Saint Mary’s in the WCC final. Arizona outlasted UCLA in an entertaining Pac-12 title game. What a first season for Wildcats coach Tommy Lloyd. Kansas is a lock for a No. 1 seed after winning the Big 12 tournament title. And because other teams faltered behind them, defending national champion Baylor is expected to retain a No. 1 seed despite its Big 12 tourney quarterfinal loss. 

No. 2 seeds

5. Auburn
6. Kentucky
7. Tennessee (SEC)
8. Purdue
Buzz: Auburn’s hopes of a No. 1 seed all but evaporated after losing to Texas A&M. Kentucky’s hopes of a No. 1 seed all but evaporated after losing to Tennessee. These teams are locked in on the two line. The victory over Kentucky elevates Tennessee to the two line. The Vols are Final Four good, and Coach Rick Barnes is eyeing what would be his second Final Four appearance nearly two decades after leading Texas there in 2003. Even with a loss in the Big Ten tourney final to Iowa, Purdue should be on the two line. The only way Duke deserves it ahead of Purdue is if the selection committee wants to give Mike Krzyzewski a sort of lifetime achievement honor. Purdue has all the offensive ingredients to make a deep run; questions persist about that defense, which ranks 102th in kenpom.com’s ratings.

No. 3 seeds

9. Duke
10. Villanova (Big East)
11. Wisconsin
12. Texas Tech
Buzz: Duke was being talked about as a possible No. 1, but it’s more likely to end up as a No. 3 with Purdue’s win in the Big Ten final. Villanova coach Jay Wright is breathing a sigh of relief after edging Creighton in the Big East championship. The Wildcats live on the edge, and they win. Wisconsin’s hopes for a No. 2 seed ended when it lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten tourney quarterfinals. Texas Tech performed admirably throughout most of the Big 12 championship; beating Kansas in Kansas City is no easy task.

No. 4 seeds

13. UCLA
14. Arkansas
15. Illinois
16. Providence
Buzz: Arkansas’ defense looked fatigued as it struggled to contain Texas A&M. The Razorbacks remain a dangerous No. 4 seed in the NCAAs. Despite Saturday’s loss to Arizona, do you have the feeling that UCLA, which returned much of their firepower from last year’s Final Four team, has been laying in the weeds all season? Illinois ran into a hot Indiana team and faltered in the waning moments of its Big Ten tourney game; its position as a No. 4 is relatively firm. Providence has not looked like itself for a few games now, and Creighton ousted the Friars. They would have slipped a seed line had a team on the No. 5 line deserved to be elevated. 

No. 5 seeds

17. Iowa (Big Ten)
18. UConn
19. Houston (American)
20. Saint Mary’s
Buzz: Iowa, which has won 11 of its past 14 games, showcased a high-octane offense during the Big Ten tournament. UConn went cold from the field and squandered a chance to knock off Villanova in a game that could have boosted the Huskies up a seed line. Kelvin Sampson has deftly guided his Houston team through an injury-riddled season and to the AAC tourney title. This is one of Randy Bennett’s best teams at Saint Mary’s, which is a potential Sweet 16 squad. 

No. 6 seeds

21. LSU
22. Texas
23. Alabama
24. Boise State (Mountain West)
Buzz: In what was coach Will Wade’s final game with LSU, the Tigers could not handle Arkansas’ defense, which has been among the nation’s best since February 1. Texas fans may have expected a little more from an outstanding coach, Chris Beard, in year one in Austin. Longhorns dropped a seed line after the loss to dangerous TCU. A turnover-plagued game by Alabama in a loss to Vanderbilt cemented the Tide’s status as one of the nation’s most erratic teams. Good luck predicting Alabama’s fortunes in the NCAAs. Boise State’s narrow victory over San Diego State in the MWC final elevated coach Leon Rice’s team up one seed line. The Broncos have lost only two games since February 3, and none by more than three points.

No. 7 seeds

25. USC
26. Ohio State
27. Colorado State
28. Michigan State
Buzz: USC is a cut below UCLA and Arizona in the top-heavy Pac-12, but that doesn’t mean the Trojans can’t play into the tournament’s second weekend. An injury-depleted Ohio State team suffered a disheartening loss to Penn State on Thursday, its fourth loss in its past five games. The Buckeyes will need a reset in the NCAAs. With the victory against Wisconsin, Tom Izzo is starting to rekindle some magic in the month of March. The Spartans fell short against Purdue, but this is a team certainly capable of winning an NCAA game following an uneven regular season. 

No. 8 seeds

29. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
30. Creighton
30. TCU
31. San Diego State
Buzz: Murray State was a lock to receive an at-large bid even if it had lost in the Ohio Valley title game. Creighton enters the NCAAs hot despite coming up short against surging Villanova in the Big East title game. Jamie Dixon’s TCU team is unpredictable yet capable, having beaten Texas Tech, Kansas and now Texas since February 26. The Horned Frogs would be seeded higher if not for a lightweight non-consecutive schedule. Regardless, a No. 1 seed would not want to see TCU in the second round of the NCAAs. San Diego State, which has an excellent NET ranking of 28th and only one loss outside of Quad 1, nearly beat Boise State in the MWC final.

No. 9 seeds

33. Seton Hall
34. Marquette
35. North Carolina
36. Memphis
Buzz: No shame in Seton Hall’s loss to UConn on Thursday; the Pirates can win a game in the NCAAs. Despite uneven play in recent weeks, Marquette has six Quad 1 victories. North Carolina’s hot play cooled off Friday night in the loss to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels have only two Quad 1 wins, but one, if you recall, was a memorable win at Cameron Indoor Stadium. In its third game against SMU this season, Memphis finally beat the Mustangs in the AAC semifinals, likely ending SMU’s tourney hopes. Credit Penny Hardaway with a sterling coaching job to prevent an adversity-laden season from going totally sideways.

No. 10 seeds

37. Iowa State
38. Miami
39. Virginia Tech (ACC)
40. San Francisco
Buzz: Iowa State has played 17 Quad 1 games — a benefit of competing in the robust Big 12 — winning an impressive nine of them. An experienced Miami team challenged Duke throughout on Friday night, but fell short in the ACC semifinals. Virginia Tech came from off the bubble to into the field in a four-day stretch, thanks to its high level of play in the ACC tournament. San Francisco’s WCC tournament win over BYU secured the Dons and emerging coaching standout Todd Golden an at-large berth.

No. 11 seeds

41. Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
42. Michigan
43. Indiana
44/45. Notre Dame/Rutgers
Buzz: Loyola would have been a borderline at-large contender had it lost in the Missouri Valley title game. By claiming the automatic berth, it doesn’t have to sweat it. Michigan took a step backward in surrendering a big lead in a loss to Indiana in coach Juwan Howard’s return to the sideline. But the Wolverines have played the nation’s third-toughest schedule, including the 10th-toughest in non-consecitive play. The narrow loss to Iowa in the Big Ten semifinals won’t derail Indiana’s tournament hopes. Notre Dame is in danger of being relegated to the First Four. But its status of being the No. 2 seed in the ACC tournament could be a factor in giving the Irish an 11 seed. Rutgers did not do itself any favors in a disappointing loss to a surging Iowa team in the Big Ten tourney. The Scarlet Knights have a host of impressive victories (six Quad 1 wins) but also some real résumé eyesores (losses to Lafayette and UMass).

No. 12 seeds

46/47. Davidson/Texas A&M
48. UAB (Conference USA)
49. South Dakota State (Summit)
50. Richmond (Atlantic 10)
Buzz: Despite its narrow loss to Richmond in the A-10 final, Davidson earns the final at-large bid because of a strong road and neutral-court record, which included an early-season victory over Alabama in Birmingham. Texas A&M lost in the SEC tourney final, but the Aggies may have played their way into the field anyway, thanks to its performance in the tournament. After North Texas’ offense failed to show up for Friday’s Conference USA semifinal game, Andy Kennedy’s UAB team emerged to secure the automatic berth behind the hot scoring of Jordan “Jelly” Walker. South Dakota State’s offensive numbers are eye-popping; the nation’s leading 3-point shooting percentage team will be an entertaining one to watch in the NCAAs. Richmond beat the No. 3 (VCU), No. 2 (Dayton) and No. 1 (Davidson) seeds in the A-10 tourney on successive days to grab an automatic bid.

No. 13 seeds

51. Vermont (America East)
52. Chattanooga (Southern)
53. New Mexico State (WAC)
54. Montana State (Big Sky)
Buzz: Vermont, one of the nation’s most experienced teams, dominated UMBC to win the America East title. As the nation’s fourth-best team in 2-point shooting percentage, Vermont will be a feisty opponent for a No. 4 seed. Chattanooga authored the first “One Shining Moment” of March with a contested 3-pointer in OT to beat Furman by a point in the Southern Conference championship Monday night. In the WAC, top-seeded New Mexico State beat Abilene Christian for the championship Saturday. The Big Sky’s top seed, Montana State survived a scare Friday against Weber State before winning convincingly Saturday against Northern Colorado to grab the NCAA bid.

No. 14 seeds

55. Akron (MAC)
56. Yale (Ivy)
57. Colgate (Patriot)
58. Longwood (Big South)
Buzz: Akron, the No. 4 seed in the MAC tournament, continued its hot late-season run, beating Kent State on Saturday night to earn the automatic bid. The Zips enter the NCAAs on an eight-game winning streak. A physical Yale team knocked off top-seeded Princeton in the Ivy League final Sunday afternoon. Colgate earned its third consecutive NCAA berth by beating Navy in the Patriot League final. Longwood beat Winthrop to earn the Big South’s automatic bid.

No. 15 seeds

59. Delaware (Colonial)
59. Saint Peter’s (Metro Atlantic)
60. Georgia State (Sun Belt)
62. Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun)
Buzz: Delaware beat UNC Wilmington to earn the CAA’s automatic berth. In a battle of New York City/New Jersey point guards-turned-coaches, Shaheen Holloway’s Saint Peter’s team knocked off King Rice’s Monmouth team for the MAAC tournament title. Georgia State earned the Sun Belt’s automatic berth, winning its 10th consecutive game Monday night. Bellarmine won the Atlantic Sun tournament but is ineligible for the NCAAs because it is still transitioning to Division I. As a result, regular-season champion Jacksonville State earns the automatic berth.

No. 16 seeds

63. Cal State Fullerton (Big West)
64. Norfolk State (MEAC)
65/66. Wright State (Horizon)/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Southland)
67/68. Texas Southern (SWAC)/Bryant (Northeast)
Buzz: Cal State Fullerton was hot from 3-point range and had an impressive defensive stand in the final 20 seconds to win the Big West tourney title. Wright State roared back from a 16-point deficit to knock off Northern Kentucky in the Horizon final. Norfolk State, the MEAC’s top seed, outlasted seventh-seeded Coppin State in Saturday’s final. In the Southland final, fourth-seeded Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won the title by beating second-seeded Southeastern Louisiana. Second-seeded Texas Southern upset top-seeded Alcorn State in the SWAC championship Saturday. Bryant beat Wagner to win the Northeast crown, earning its first NCAA tournament bid.