2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: Thursday projection

For most of the season, Iona looked as if it wouldn’t just return to the NCAA tournament but that it had a chance to win at least one game. After all, it knocked off Alabama in November and still had coach Rick Pitino, who knows a thing or two about advancing this time of year. 

Then it collided with ninth-seeded Rider in Wednesday’s quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic tournament in Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J. The top-seeded Gaels fell 71-70 in a significant upset, dashing their NCAA hopes and providing a reminder of how precarious life can be in a one-bid league. Second-seeded Saint Peter’s, coached by former Seton Hall guard Shaheen Holloway, now becomes the favorite in the MAAC tournament. 

Elsewhere, these promise to be an anxious few days for Xavier and Wake Forest. Neither team had a ton of margin for error to begin with, and both suffered damaging losses against inferior teams in conference tournaments Wednesday. Both are close to the cutline, and results elsewhere could determine whether they are on the right side of the bubble come Sunday night.

There’s no shortage of impactful games today, starting with Indiana-Michigan in the Big Ten. If the Hoosiers lose, their NCAA hopes are crushed. The Wolverines, whose previously suspended coach, Juwan Howard, returns, could further cement an at-large berth with a victory. A loss may not necessarily derail those hopes. Wyoming is playing a must-win game against UNLV in Las Vegas. Florida needs to beat Texas A&M (and keep winning) if it has any hope of an at-large bid. And there’s much more today. Two more leagues begin conference play, too, with the AAC and MAC hitting the court.

Teams listed with a conference are the projected league tourney winner, while asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid. Teams in bold type have earned automatic bids. And you can keep up to date on all the March Madness goings-on with our daily NCAA tournament tracker/bubble watch.

No. 1 seeds

1. Gonzaga (West Coast)
2. Baylor (Big 12)
3. Arizona (Pac-12)
4. Auburn (SEC)
Buzz: There’s still plenty to shake out among No. 1 seeds. Gonzaga may have locked up the top overall seed with the victory over rival Saint Mary’s in the WCC final. Baylor opens Big 12 tournament play against Oklahoma on Thursday, and a victory probably ensures Scott Drew’s team a No. 1 seed. Arizona figures to face a stiff challenge from UCLA to win the Pac-12 tournament, but a berth in the conference championship game should cement a No. 1 seed. Auburn may be the most precarious of these four in terms of securing a No. 1 seed. The Tigers may need to win the SEC conference title, which won’t be easy. 

No. 2 seeds

5. Kansas
6. Kentucky
7. Duke
8. Villanova (Big East)
Buzz: Kansas and Kentucky still harbor hopes of reaching the top seed line. If the Jayhawks beat Baylor in the Big 12 final, they could join the Bears on the one line. Duke is looking for a reset in the ACC tournament after the disheartening effort Saturday against North Carolina. A potential Villanova-UConn matchup looms in the semifinals of the Big East tournament, perhaps with a No. 2 seed on the line for the Wildcats. 

No. 3s

9. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
10. Tennessee
11. Purdue
12. Texas Tech
Buzz: Is it possible that a conference as top-heavy as the Big Ten could wind up without a top-two seed? If so, Wisconsin’s home loss to Nebraska will be one of the reasons. Tennessee, a dangerous Final Four contender, may be playing for a No. 2 seed in a potential SEC semifinal matchup with Kentucky. Purdue has all the offensive ingredients to make a deep NCAA run; questions persist about that defense, which is barely inside the top 100 (99^th) in the kenpom.com ratings. Did Texas Tech peak too early? The Big 12 tournament will provide an answer. The Red Raiders play Iowa State on Thursday night.

No. 4 seeds

13. UCLA
14. Arkansas
15. Illinois
16. Providence
Buzz: Do you get the feeling UCLA, which returned much of its firepower from last year’s Final Four team, has been laying in the weeds all season? Their peak may be a No. 3 seed. The Razorbacks may be the most formidable team in this bunch. Don’t be surprised if they knock off Auburn in the SEC semifinals. Providence coach Ed Cooley, underrated nationally, could be on the brink of a breakout deep NCAA tournament run. Let’s see if the Friars — who play Butler today — finally can get a win over Villanova in the Big East tournament. Illinois could get to the three line by winning the Big Ten tourney.

No. 5 seeds

17. UConn
18. Texas
19. Ohio State
20. Houston (American)
Buzz: Kelvin Sampson has deftly guided his Houston team through an injury-riddled season, and the Cougars remain the team to beat in the AAC tournament. If UConn gets by Seton Hall, the Huskies are looking at what promises to be a compelling matchup against Villanova in the Big East semifinals. If Texas knocks off TCU in the Big 12 quarterfinals, the Longhorns draw Kansas in Kansas City, never an easy task. After ending the regular season losing three of four, Ohio State’s hold on a No. 5 seed is not secure. The Buckeyes face Penn State on Thursday night.

No. 6 seeds

21. Saint Mary’s
22. Alabama
23. LSU
24. Iowa
Buzz: This is one of Randy Bennett’s best teams at Saint Mary’s; good news is the Gaels probably won’t have to play Gonzaga again this season. LSU should advance in the SEC tournament to play Arkansas in the quarterfinals. Alabama, one of the nation’s most unpredictable teams, could get a matchup with Kentucky in the SEC quarterfinals. If Iowa wins its first Big Ten tournament game against Northwestern on Thursday afternoon, it draws No. 4 seed Rutgers, meaning that the Hawkeyes have a more-than-realistic path to the semifinals. 

No. 7 seeds

25. USC
26. Colorado State (Mountain West)
27. Boise State
28. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
Buzz: Murray State was a lock to receive an at-large bid even if they had lost in the OVC title game. There is little separation between Mountain West foes Colorado State and Boise State other than CSU’s two victories over Boise State. The MWC tournament should determine if one can climb up to a No. 6 seed. If USC can upset UCLA and Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament — a tough ask — look for the Trojans to climb to at least a No. 6 seed. 

No. 8 seeds

29. Michigan State
30. Seton Hall
31. Marquette
32. San Diego State
Buzz: This is Tom Izzo’s best month of the year, but does he have the team this season to make one of his patented postseason runs? If the Spartans beat Maryland on Thursday night, Wisconsin is next. Marquette’s opening Big East game against Creighton on Thursday afternoon will impact NCAA tournament seeding for both teams. Seton Hall could be a Big East sleeper; look out, UConn, in Thursday night’s quarterfinal. San Diego State has locked up an at-large berth.

No. 9 seeds

33. TCU
34. Iowa State
35. Creighton
36. North Carolina
Buzz: Iowa State will still earn an at-large berth if it loses to Texas Tech on Thursday night in the Big 12 tournament, but the Cyclones will be going in the wrong direction. TCU does not need to beat Texas in Thursday’s Big 12 quarterfinals; the recent win over Kansas was enough to get the Horned Frogs into the NCAAs. North Carolina is playing for NCAA seeding after the shocking victory in Mike Krzyzewski’s Cameron Indoor Stadium finale, a win that will resonate for years on Tobacco Road. Creighton is in the NCAAs, and is playing for seeding in the Big East tournament.

No. 10 seeds

37. San Francisco
38. Davidson (Atlantic 10)
39. Michigan
40. Miami
Buzz: San Francisco’s WCC tournament win over BYU secured USF an at-large berth. Davidson may need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament to reach the NCAAs. The good news is it wouldn’t play Dayton or VCU until the final. Michigan could cement its at-large hopes and also vanquish the hopes of Indiana if it beats the Hoosiers in a Big Ten second-round game Thursday afternoon. Miami could be headed to the First Four if it loses to Boston College in the ACC quarterfinals.

No. 11 seeds

41. Memphis
42. Loyola Chicago (Missouri Valley)
43. Notre Dame
44. Wyoming
Buzz: Memphis probably is in the field now; a win over SMU in the AAC semifinals would help seeding. Loyola-Chicago would have been a borderline at-large contender had it lost in the MVC title game. By claiming the automatic berth, it doesn’t have to sweat it. Wyoming can’t afford to lose to UNLV in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West. If it does, it will have an anxious Selection Sunday and could well be out. Notre Dame, the second seed in the ACC Tournament, will be backing into the NCAAs if it suffers an upset in Thursday’s quarterfinal against Virginia Tech.

No. 12 seeds

45/46. Rutgers/SMU
47/48. Xavier/VCU
49. North Texas* (Conference USA)
50. South Dakota State (Summit)
Buzz: As the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, Rutgers is in an interesting situation. If the Scarlet Knights beat Iowa in Friday’s quarterfinals, they should lock up an at-large bid. A loss could put Rutgers on shaky ground. SMU may need to beat Memphis in the AAC tournament semis to feel relatively confident about a bid. North Texas, one of the best teams in the nation on the road, is the class of Conference USA but must win the automatic berth to reach the NCAAs. South Dakota State’s offensive numbers are eye-popping; the Jackrabbits will be an entertaining team to watch in the NCAAs. Xavier could not stop the late-season bleeding, losing to Butler in overtime in the Big East tournament Wednesday. Five Quad 1 wins are enough to keep Xavier in the field at the moment — barely. VCU is in the field at the moment, too, but can’t afford an early loss in the A-10 tournament.

No. 13 seeds

51. Vermont* (America East)
52. Chattanooga (Southern)
53. Toledo* (MAC)
54. New Mexico State* (WAC)
Buzz: Chattanooga authored the first “One Shining Moment” of March with a contested 3-pointer in OT to beat Furman by a point in the Southern Conference championship Monday night. Vermont, one of the nation’s most experienced teams, would be a tough out as a No. 13 seed. Top-seeded Vermont hosts second-seeded UMBC in Saturday’s America East championship. Top-seeded Toledo opens MAC tournament play Thursday against eighth-seeded Central Michigan. The WAC tournament began Tuesday and runs through Saturday, yet top-seeded New Mexico State only needs to win two games to capture the crown because of a bye to the semifinals.

No. 14 seeds

55. Princeton* (Ivy)
56. Delaware (Colonial)
57. Montana State* (Big Sky)
58. Saint Peter’s* (Metro Atlantic)
Buzz: Delaware beat UNC Wilmington to earn the CAA’s automatic berth. Princeton, the top seed in the Ivy, will play fourth-seeded Cornell in Boston on Saturday in the semifinals. The Big Sky’s top seed, Montana State, will play Sacramento State in Thursday’s quarterfinals. Ninth-seeded Rider stunned top-seeded Iona in the MAAC tourney, meaning that second-seeded Saint Peter’s now is the favorite. 

No. 15 seeds

59. Colgate (Patriot)
60. Long Beach State* (Big West)
61. Georgia State (Sun Belt)
62. Longwood (Big South)
Buzz: Georgia State earned the Sun Belt’s automatic berth, winning its 10th consecutive game Monday night. Longwood beat Winthrop to earn the Big South’s automatic bid. Top-seeded Long Beach State will play Cal State-Bakersfield on Thursday in the Big West tournament. Colgate earned its third NCAA berth in a row by beating Navy in the Patriot League final Wednesday night. 

No. 16 seeds

63. Wright State (Horizon)
64. Norfolk State* (MEAC)
65/66. Alcorn State* (SWAC)/Nicholls State* (Southland)
67/68. Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun)/Bryant (Northeast)
Buzz:  Bellarmine won the Atlantic Sun tournament but is ineligible for the NCAA’s because it still is transitioning to Division I. As a result, regular-season champion Jacksonville State earns the automatic berth. Wright State roared back from a 16-point deficit to knock off Northern Kentucky in the Horizon final. Bryant beat Wagner to win the Northeast crown, earning its first NCAA tournament bid. Norfolk State, the top seed in the MEAC, beat No. 8 seed Delaware State to advance to Friday’s semifinals. Top-seeded Alcorn State edged No. 8 seed Prairie View A&M 64-63 in overtime in the quarterfinals of the SWAC tournament on Wednesday. Top-seeded Nicholls State could play No. 4 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in Friday’s Southland semifinals.