2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: February 1 projection

A shakeup has occurred this week on the projected NCAA tournament’s top seed line, with UCLA and Purdue sliding in as No. 1 seeds.

The Bruins, who made an improbable run to the Final Four last season, rose after knocking off Arizona. And Purdue, a legitimate national title contender this season, took a No. 1 slot courtesy of Alabama’s unexpected victory against defending national champion Baylor.

If there is one NCAA tournament résumé bound to give the selection committee headaches when it comes to seeding, look no further than Alabama’s body of work. The Crimson Tide is nothing if not erratic, with significant highs and lows. Coach Nate Oats’ team is capable of beating anyone in the country but also losing to a lot of teams that are not tournament caliber.

On the (very) positive side, Alabama (14-7) has beaten Gonzaga, Houston and Baylor, three-fourths of last season’s Final Four and all currently in the top six in NET ranking. No surprise that Alabama has the top-ranked strength of schedule nationally, either. The Tide also has losses to Iona, Davidson and Memphis, which isn’t the real problem. The issue is conference losses to Missouri (157^th in NET) and Georgia (212th). Those are what is preventing Alabama from a better seed at the moment. 

Alabama currently is projected as a No. 4 seed. But that is likely to change depending on which Crimson Tide team shows up in games the rest of the regular season. They have a higher ceiling but also a lower floor than most other “good” teams.

As the season continues to take shape, come back each Tuesday for our latest projection of what the 2022 NCAA Tournament field will look like on “Selection Sunday” (which is March 13, by the way).

Note: Teams projected to be conference champs are in bold type, with the conference listed.

1 seeds

Gonzaga (West Coast)
Auburn (SEC)
UCLA (PAC-12)
Purdue (Big Ten)

2 seeds

Baylor (Big 12)
Kansas
Arizona
Duke (ACC)

3 seeds

Houston (American)
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Villanova (Big East)

4 seeds

Michigan State
Illinois
Providence
Alabama

5 seeds

Tennessee
Texas Tech
Ohio State
Xavier

6 seeds

LSU
Iowa State
UConn
Texas

7 seeds

Iowa
Marquette
USC
Indiana

8 seeds

Colorado State (MWC)
Loyola-Chicago (MVC)
Saint Mary’s
Boise State

9 seeds

Wake Forest
Davidson (Atlantic 10)
Arkansas
Miami

10 seeds

TCU
Seton Hall
North Carolina
Oregon

11 seeds

BYU
Oklahoma
Murray State (OVC)
San Diego State

12 seeds

San Francisco/Florida State
Florida/Wyoming
Iona (Metro Atlantic)
UAB (Conference USA)

13 seeds

Vermont (America East)
South Dakota State (Summit)
Chattanooga (Southern)
Toledo (MAC)

14 seeds

UNC-Wilmington (Colonial)
Oakland (Horizon)
Wagner (Northeast)
Seattle (WAC)

15 seeds

Weber State (Big Sky)
Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
Princeton (Ivy)
Appalachian State (Sun Belt)

16 seeds

Hawaii (Big West)/Southern (SWAC)
New Orleans (Southland)/Navy (Patriot)
Norfolk State (MEAC)
Longwood (Big South)

Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.