2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: March 1 projection

What a way to usher in March: For the first time in history, seven of the top 10 teams in the Associated Press Top 25 lost Saturday, including each of the top six. (Is that a foreshadowing of a wild NCAA tournament?)

In a fitting night capper, the passionate fan base of Saint Mary’s in Moraga, Calif., stormed the court after the Gaels thoroughly controlled the game from start to finish against top-ranked Gonzaga. It was a day in which almost all the top teams, in unison, took one step backward, which doesn’t change much of the order at the top of the projected bracket.

With Selection Sunday fast approaching on March 13, defending national champion — and surging — Baylor overtakes Auburn for the moment as the fourth No. 1 seed. Plenty of shuffling remains over the final week of the regular season and as the 32 conferences stage their tournaments. These figure to be anxious days for fans in Chapel Hill, Provo, Ann Arbor, Memphis and beyond. Teams are running out of time to substantially bolster their résumés.

Note: Teams projected to be conference champs are in bold type, with the conference listed. Teams are listed in order within each seed group.

No. 1 seeds

Gonzaga (West Coast)
Arizona (Pac-12)
Kansas (Big 12)
Baylor

2 seeds

Auburn (SEC)
Kentucky
Duke (ACC)
Wisconsin (Big Ten)

3 seeds

Purdue
Villanova
Texas Tech
Tennessee

4 seeds

Illinois
Providence (Big East)
UCLA
UConn

5 seeds

Texas
Arkansas
Ohio State
Alabama

6 seeds

USC
Saint Mary’s
Michigan State
Houston (American)

7 seeds

Marquette
LSU
Boise State (Mountain West)
Iowa

8 seeds

Iowa State
Colorado State
Murray State (Ohio Valley)
Seton Hall

9 seeds

San Francisco
Wake Forest
TCU
Davidson (Atlantic 10)

10 seeds

Notre Dame
Xavier
Wyoming
Creighton

11 seeds

Miami
San Diego State
Indiana
Michigan/Memphis

12 seeds

North Carolina/VCU
North Texas (Conference USA)
South Dakota State (Summit)
Iona (Metro Atlantic)

13 seeds

Toledo (Mid-American)
Chattanooga (Southern)
Vermont (America East)
New Mexico State (WAC)

14 seeds

Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley)
Princeton (Ivy)
UNC Wilmington (Colonial)
Liberty (Atlantic Sun)

15 seeds

Colgate (Patriot)
Texas State (Sun Belt)
Long Beach State (Big West)
Montana State (Big Sky)

16 seeds

Bryant (Northeast)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Longwood (Big South)/Nicholls State (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)/Norfolk State (MEAC)

Conference tournaments already have started. Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.