2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: Saturday projection

As Oklahoma scrambled in an ill-fated attempt to beat Texas Tech in the final seconds in Kansas City, perhaps no one on Friday night was following with more interest than bracketology-educated Virginia Tech fans at the ACC tournament in Brooklyn.

In earning its best victory of the season over North Carolina, the Hokies appeared best positioned to squeeze into one of the final two projected NCAA tournament at-large berths. And when the Sooners came up short against Texas Tech in the Big 12 semifinals, that outcome further boosted the Hokies’ hopes, at least for one night. There still are no guarantees as to how the race for the final few at-large berths plays out.

Another dizzying marathon of games, another example of how the fluid NCAA tournament picture continued to evolve Friday. The fringes of the at-large field started to crystallize and the top seed line experienced further shuffling, with perhaps more to come. On a day that saw several notable upsets, perhaps a harbinger for the next three weeks, here were the two main takeaways:

+ Notre Dame, Xavier and Indiana are projected to have locked up at-large bids. That leaves just two semi-open at-large slots. Rutgers, with its incongruous tournament résumé, and Virginia Tech, which plays Duke for the ACC tournament title Saturday, appear best-positioned to grab those spots. But SMU could steal a bid by winning the AAC tournament, and there’s plenty of drama left to unfold in the Atlantic-10 tournament. Texas A&M also can substantially boost its chances by beating Arkansas. Oklahoma and BYU remain in the mix as well.

+ One No. 1 seed still appears undecided. Baylor, at the moment, slides into that slot by virtue of Auburn’s loss to Texas A&M. Kentucky likely would grab it by winning the SEC tournament. Duke appears to be a long shot, considering the ACC is not ranked among the top five leagues by most metrics.

Teams listed with a conference are the projected league tourney winner, while asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid. Teams in bold type have earned automatic bids. And you can keep up to date on all the March Madness goings-on with our daily NCAA tournament tracker/bubble watch.

No. 1 seeds

1. Gonzaga (West Coast)
2. Arizona (Pac-12)
3. Kansas (Big 12)
4. Baylor
Buzz: Gonzaga should be the top overall seed with the victory over rival Saint Mary’s in the WCC final. Arizona reached the Pac-12 final, cementing its positioning as a No. 1 seed — an impressive feat in coach Tommy Lloyd’s first season. Courtesy of Baylor’s loss to Oklahoma, Kansas slid in as a deserving No. 1. After Auburn suffered a defeat to Texas A&M on Friday, Baylor regained its No. 1 line positioning, although it may just be a placeholder if Kentucky wins the SEC tournament. 

No. 2 seeds

5. Auburn
6. Kentucky (SEC)
7. Duke (ACC)
8. Villanova (Big East)
Buzz: Auburn’s hopes of a No. 1 seed are slim after losing to Texas A&M. Kentucky eyes a pathway to a top seed if it can beat Tennessee and, presumably, Arkansas to win the SEC tournament. Winning the ACC regular-season title and conference tournament crown typically yields a No. 1 seed. But the ACC is merely the sixth-best conference this season, and it’s hard to envision Duke, which has looked less than spectacular recently, elevating to the top seed line unless other teams falter. Villanova coach Jay Wright is breathing a sigh of relief after edging UConn in the Big East semifinals. The resilient Wildcats live on the edge. 

No. 3 seeds

9. Wisconsin
10. Tennessee
11. Purdue (Big Ten)
12. Texas Tech
Buzz: Is it possible that a conference as top heavy as the Big Ten could wind up without a top-two seed? It’s not only possible but likely. Wisconsin’s loss to Michigan State derailed its hopes. Tennessee, a dangerous Final Four contender, could potentially climb to a No. 2 if it wins the SEC tournament. Purdue has all the offensive ingredients to make a deep run; questions persist about that defense, which ranks 101^st in the kenpom.com efficiency ratings. But Matt Painter’s team has a great chance to win the Big Ten tournament. Texas Tech looked tentative in the second half against Oklahoma, was fortunate to survive and clearly is the fourth No. 3 seed. 

No. 4 seeds

13. UCLA
14. Arkansas
15. Illinois
16. Providence
Buzz: Arkansas’ defense looked impressive; the surging Razorbacks could climb to a No. 3 seed by winning the SEC tournament. Do you have the feeling that UCLA, which returned much of its firepower from last year’s Final Four team, have been laying in the weeds all season? Their peak may be a No. 3 seed. Illinois ran into a hot Indiana team and faltered in the waning moments; its position as a No. 4 is relatively firm. Providence has not looked like itself for a few games now, and Creighton ousted the Friars in the Big East tourney. They would have slipped a seed line had a team on the No. 5 line deserved to be elevated. 

No. 5 seeds

17. UConn
18. LSU
19. Houston (American)
20. Iowa
Buzz: UConn squandered a chance to knock off Villanova, a win that would have boosted the Huskies up a seed line. LSU could not handle Arkansas’ defense, which has been among the nation’s best since February 1. Kelvin Sampson has deftly guided his Houston team through an injury-riddled season, and the Cougars remain the team to beat in the AAC tournament. Iowa, which has won 10 of its past 12 games, has showcased a high-octane offense during the Big Ten tournament; next up is Indiana in the semifinals.

No. 6 seeds

21. Saint Mary’s
22. Texas
23. Alabama
24. USC
Buzz: This is one of Randy Bennett’s best teams at Saint Mary’s. It is a potential Sweet 16 team. Texas fans may have expected a little more from an outstanding coach, Chris Beard, in year one in Austin. The Longhorns dropped a seed line after the loss to dangerous TCU. A turnover-plagued game by Alabama in a loss to Vanderbilt cemented the Tide’s status as one of the nation’s most erratic teams. Good luck predicting its fortunes in the NCAAs. USC is a cut below UCLA and Arizona in the top-heavy Pac-12, but that doesn’t mean the Trojans can’t play into the tournament’s second weekend. 

No. 7 seeds

25. Ohio State
26. Boise State (Mountain West)
27. Colorado State
28. Michigan State
Buzz: An injury-depleted Ohio State team suffered a disheartening loss to Penn State on Thursday, its fourth loss in five games. The Buckeyes will need a reset in the NCAAs. There is little separation between Mountain West foes Colorado State and Boise State, though Boise State can follow up its regular-season title with the conference tourney title. With Michigan State’s victory against Wisconsin, Tom Izzo is starting to rekindle some magic in the month of March. Will it continue?

No. 8 seeds

29. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
30. Creighton
31. Seton Hall
32. TCU
Buzz: Murray State was a lock to receive an at-large bid even if they had lost in the Ohio Valley title game. Creighton is close to bumping up another seed line after blowing out Providence to reach the Big East final against Villanova. No shame in Seton Hall’s loss to UConn on Thursday; the Pirates can win a game in the NCAAs. Jamie Dixon’s TCU team is unpredictable yet capable, having beaten Texas Tech, Kansas and now Texas since February 26. The Horned Frogs would be seeded higher if not for a lightweight non-league schedule. Regardless, a No. 1 seed would not want to see TCU in the second round of the NCAAs.

No. 9 seeds

33. San Diego State
34. Iowa State
35. Marquette
36. North Carolina
Buzz: San Diego State has an excellent NET ranking of 28 and only one loss outside of Quad 1. Iowa State has played 17 Quad 1 games — a benefit from competing in the stacked Big 12 — winning an impressive nine of them. Despite uneven play in recent weeks, Marquette has six Quad 1 victories. North Carolina’s hot play cooled off Friday night in the loss to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels have only two Quad 1 wins, but one, if you recall, was a memorable one at Cameron Indoor Stadium. 

No. 10 seeds

37. San Francisco
38. Miami
39. Memphis
40. Davidson (Atlantic 10)
Buzz: San Francisco’s WCC tournament win over BYU secured USF and emerging coaching standout Todd Golden an at-large berth; it was playing with house money in Las Vegas on Monday against Gonzaga. An experienced Miami team challenged Duke throughout Friday night, but fell short in the semifinals. Memphis built a huge lead, coughed it up, then beat UCF rather easily. Credit Penny Hardaway with a sterling coaching job to prevent an adversity-laden season from going totally sideways. Is Davidson, with only two Quad 1 wins but an excellent road record, in the field if it doesn’t win the A-10 tournament? It would be sweating it out. Davidson plays Saint Louis in Saturday’s semifinals. 

No. 11 seeds

41. Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
42. Michigan
43. Wyoming
44. Notre Dame
Buzz: Loyola would have been a borderline at-large contender had it lost in the Missouri Valley title game. By claiming the automatic berth, it doesn’t have to sweat it. Michigan took a step backward in surrendering a big lead in a loss to Indiana in coach Juwan Howard’s return to the sideline. But the Wolverines have played the nation’s third-toughest schedule, including the 10th-toughest in non-conference play. Wyoming beat UNLV in Las Vegas for the first time since 2003 to lock up the MWC’s fourth NCAA bid. Notre Dame is in danger of being relegated to the First Four. But its status of finishing second in the ACC could be a deciding factor. 

No. 12 seeds

45/46. Indiana/Xavier
47/48. Rutgers/Virginia Tech
49. UAB* (Conference USA)
50. South Dakota State (Summit)
Buzz: Indiana continued an improbable Big Ten tournament run by toppling top-seeded Illinois. The Hoosiers will be in the field. Xavier has lost eight of its past 10 games. But the Musketeers have nine Quad 1 or 2 victories and the 10th-best strength of schedule nationally. Rutgers did not do itself any favors in a disappointing loss to a surging Iowa team. The Scarlet Knights have a host of impressive victories (six Quad 1 wins) but also some real eyesores (losses to Lafayette and UMass.) Virginia Tech is in the most precarious position, hoping there are no bid thieves (SMU?) in other leagues. But the Hokies can eliminate any question by beating Duke to earn the ACC’s automatic berth. After North Texas’ offense failed to show up for Friday’s Conference USA game, Andy Kennedy’s UAB team is now the favorite to secure the automatic berth. Jordan Walker has the green light to shoot and shoot and shoot, and he can score in bunches. South Dakota State’s offensive numbers are eye-popping; the nation’s leading 3-point shooting percentage team will be an entertaining one to watch in the NCAAs.

No. 13 seeds

51. Vermont* (America East)
52. Chattanooga (Southern)
53. Kent State* (MAC)
54. New Mexico State* (WAC)
Buzz: Chattanooga authored the first “One Shining Moment” of March with a contested 3-pointer in OT to beat Furman by a point in the Southern Conference championship Monday night. Vermont, one of the nation’s most experienced teams, would be a tough out as a No. 13 seed. Top-seeded Vermont hosts second-seed UMBC in Saturday’s America East championship. After top-seeded Toledo was knocked out of the MAC tournament Friday, second-seeded Kent State became the favorite. It will play fourth-seeded Akron in the final. In the WAC, top-seeded New Mexico State will play Abilene Christian, which upset Texas in the NCAA first round last season, for the championship Saturday.

No. 14 seeds

55. Princeton* (Ivy)
56. Montana State* (Big Sky)
57. Colgate (Patriot)
58. Longwood (Big South)
Buzz: Princeton, the top seed in the Ivy, will play fourth-seeded Cornell in Boston on Saturday in the semifinals. The Big Sky’s top seed, Montana State, survived a scare Friday against Weber State. It will play Northern Colorado on Saturday for the title. Colgate earned its third consecutive NCAA berth by beating Navy in the Patriot League final. Longwood beat Winthrop to earn the Big South’s automatic bid.

No. 15 seeds

59. Delaware (Colonial)
60. Saint Peter’s* (Metro Atlantic)
61. Georgia State (Sun Belt)
62. Jacksonville State (Atlantic Sun)
Buzz: Delaware beat UNC Wilmington to earn the CAA’s automatic berth. In a battle of New York City/New Jersey point guards-turned-coaches, Shaheen Holloway’s Saint Peter’s team will play King Rice’s Monmouth team for the MAAC tournament title. Georgia State earned the Sun Belt’s automatic berth, winning its 10th consecutive game Monday night. Bellarmine won the Atlantic Sun tournament but is ineligible for the NCAAs because it still is transitioning to Division I. As a result, regular-season champion Jacksonville State earns the automatic berth.

No. 16 seeds

63. Long Beach State* (Big West)
64. Wright State (Horizon)
65/66. Norfolk State* (MEAC)/Southeastern Louisiana* (Southland)
67/68. Alcorn State* (SWAC)/Bryant (Northeast)
Buzz: Long Beach State’s Jadon Jones sank a 3-pointer at the buzzer to send the Big West’s top seed to Saturday’s final against Cal State-Fullerton. Wright State roared back from a 16-point deficit to knock off Northern Kentucky in the Horizon final. Norfolk State, the MEAC’s top seed, will play seventh-seeded (and Juan Dixon-coached) Coppin State in Saturday’s final. In the Southland final, second-seeded Southeastern Louisiana will play fourth-seeded Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Top-seeded Alcorn State will play second-seed Texas Southern in the SWAC championship Saturday. Bryant beat Wagner to win the Northeast crown, earning its first-ever NCAA tournament bid.

Sites for the 2022 NCAA Tournament are listed here.