2022 NCAA Tournament bracketology: Tuesday projection

Imagine playing the entire college basketball season only to have all of your NCAA tournament hopes hang in the air with one final 3-point shot at the buzzer of the conference tournament title game.

That’s the situation that unfolded in the waning moments of overtime Monday night in the Southern Conference. Chattanooga’s David Jean-Baptiste raced into the frontcourt and unleashed a desperation 3-pointer over three defenders, his team’s NCAA tournament hopes hinging on the shot’s outcome. The shot swished, causing a euphoric on-court celebration as top-seeded Chattanooga beat Furman 64-63 to claim the league’s automatic berth.

Welcome to March Madness.

The first buzzer-beating moment of conference tournament week is unlikely to be the last as Selection Sunday draws ever closer. The ACC tournament tips off today. A Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s rematch in the West Coast Conference final highlights Tuesday night’s action. And teams continue to jockey for seeding and berths. Here’s a look at On3’s projected NCAA tournament field, as of Tuesday morning.

Teams listed with a conference are the projected league tourney winner, while asterisked teams must win their conference titles to receive an NCAA bid. Teams in bold type have earned automatic bids. And you can keep up to date on all the March Madness goings-on with our daily NCAA tournament tracker/bubble watch.

No. 1 seeds

1. Gonzaga (West Coast)
2. Baylor (Big 12)
3. Arizona (Pac-12)
4. Auburn (SEC)
Buzz: There’s still plenty to shake out among No. 1 seeds. Gonzaga basically can lock up the top overall seed with a victory over rival Saint Mary’s in the WCC final tonight. Baylor will open Big 12 tournament play against Oklahoma on Thursday, and a victory probably ensures Scott Drew’s team of a No. 1 seed. Arizona will have a stiff challenge from UCLA to win the Pac-12 tournament, but a berth in the conference championship game should cement a No. 1 seed. Auburn may be the most precarious of these four in terms of securing a No. 1 seed. The Tigers may need to win the SEC tournament title, which won’t be easy. 

No. 2 seeds

5. Kansas
6. Kentucky
7. Duke
8. Villanova (Big East)
Buzz: Kansas and Kentucky still harbor hopes of reaching the top seed line. If the Jayhawks beat Baylor in the Big 12 final, they could join the Bears on the one line. Duke is looking for a reset in the ACC tournament after the disheartening effort Saturday against North Carolina. A potential Villanova-UConn matchup looms in the semifinals of the Big East tournament, perhaps with a No. 2 seed on the line for the Wildcats. 

No. 3 seeds

9. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
10. Tennessee
11. Purdue
12. Texas Tech
Buzz: Is it possible that a conference as top heavy as the Big Ten could wind up without a team seeded first or second? If so, Wisconsin’s home loss to Nebraska will be one of the reasons. Tennessee, a Final Four contender, may be playing for a No. 2 seed in a potential SEC semifinal matchup with Kentucky. Purdue has all the offensive ingredients to make a deep run; questions persist about that defense, which ranks 103rd nationally in the kenpom.com efficiency ratings. 

No. 4 seeds

13. UCLA
14. Arkansas
15. Illinois
16. Providence
Buzz: Do you have the feeling that the Bruins, who returned much of their firepower from last year’s Final Four team, have been laying in the weeds all season? Their peak may be a No. 3 seed. The Razorbacks may be the most formidable team in this bunch; don’t be surprised if they knock off Auburn in the SEC semifinals. Providence coach Ed Cooley, underrated nationally, could be on the brink of a breakout deep NCAA tournament run. Let’s see if the Friars can finally earn a win over Villanova in the Big East tournament. 

No. 5 seeds

17. UConn
18. Texas
19. Saint Mary’s
20. Ohio State
Buzz: This is one of Randy Bennett’s best Saint Mary’s team and, win or lose tonight against Gonzaga in the WCC final, deserves a top-five seed in the NCAAs. If UConn gets by the Seton Hall-Georgetown winner, the Huskies are looking at what promises to be a compelling matchup against Villanova in the Big East semifinals. If Texas knocks off TCU in the Big 12 quarterfinals, the Longhorns draw Kansas in Kansas City, never an easy task. After ending the regular season losing three of four, Ohio State’s hold on a No. 5 seed is not secure. 

No. 6 seeds

21. Houston (American)
22. Alabama
23. LSU
24. Iowa
Buzz: Kelvin Sampson has deftly stewarded his Houston team through an injury-riddled season, and the Cougars remain the team to beat in the AAC tournament. LSU should advance in the SEC tournament to play Arkansas in the quarterfinals. Alabama, one of the nation’s most unpredictable teams, could get a matchup with Kentucky in the SEC quarterfinals. If Iowa wins its first Big Ten tournament game, it draws No. 4 seed Rutgers, meaning that the Hawkeyes have a more-than-realistic path to the semifinals. 

No. 7 seeds

25. USC
26. Colorado State (Mountain West)
27. Boise State
28. Murray State (Ohio Valley)
Buzz: The Racers were a lock to receive an at-large bid even if they had lost in the Ohio Valley title game. There is little separation between Mountain West foes Colorado State and Boise State. The MWC tournament should determine if one can climb up to a No. 6 seed. If USC can upset UCLA and Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament — a very tough task — look for the Trojans to climb to at least a No. 6 seed. 

No. 8 seeds

29. Michigan State
30. Seton Hall
31. Marquette
32. San Diego State
Buzz: This is Tom Izzo’s best month of the year, but does he have the team this season to make one of his patented postseason runs? If it beats Maryland, then Wisconsin is on tap. Marquette’s opening Big East game against Creighton will impact NCAA tournament seeding for both teams. Seton Hall could be a Big East sleeper; look out, UConn, in the quarterfinals.

No. 9 seeds

33. TCU
34. San Francisco
35. Iowa State
36. North Carolina
Buzz: Iowa State still will likely earn an at-large berth if it loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament, but the Cyclones will be going in the wrong direction. TCU does not need to beat Texas in Thursday’s Big 12 quarterfinals; the recent win over Kansas was enough to get the Horned Frogs into the NCAAs. San Francisco’s WCC tournament win over BYU secured USF an at-large berth; it was playing with house money in Las Vegas on Monday against Gonzaga. North Carolina is now playing for seeding after the shocking victory in Mike Krzyzewski’s Cameron Indoor Stadium finale, a win that will resonate for years on Tobacco Road. 

No. 10 seeds

37. Notre Dame
38. Creighton
39. Wake Forest
40. Davidson (Atlantic 10)
Buzz: If Wake Forest loses to Miami in the ACC quarterfinals, Steve Forbes’ team could be headed to Dayton for the First Four. Notre Dame, the second seed in the ACC tournament, will be backing into the NCAAs if it suffers an upset in the quarterfinals. Davidson may need to win the Atlantic 10 tournament title to reach the NCAAs. The good news is it wouldn’t play Dayton or VCU until the final. Creighton is in the NCAAs and is playing for seeding in the Big East tournament. 

No. 11 seeds

41. Miami
42. Wyoming
43. Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
44. Michigan
Buzz: Loyola-Chicago would have been a borderline at-large contender had it lost in the Missouri Valley title game. By claiming the automatic berth, it doesn’t have to sweat it. Miami could be headed to the First Four if it loses to Wake Forest in the ACC quarterfinals. Michigan could cement its at-large hopes and also end Indiana’s if it beats the Hoosiers in a Big Ten second-round game. Wyoming can’t afford to lose to UNLV in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West. If it does, it will have an anxious late afternoon on Selection Sunday. 

No. 12 seeds

45/46. Xavier/Memphis
47/48. Rutgers/SMU
49. North Texas* (Conference USA)
50. South Dakota State* (Summit)
Buzz: As the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, Rutgers is in an interesting situation. If the Scarlet Knights beat Iowa in the quarterfinals, they should lock up an at-large bid. A loss could put Rutgers on shaky ground. SMU may need to beat Memphis in the AAC tournament to feel relatively confident about a bid. North Texas, one of the best teams in the nation on the road, is the class of Conference USA but must win the automatic berth to reach the NCAAs. South Dakota State’s offensive numbers are eye-popping, but the only path to the NCAAs is by winning the Summit tournament. Xavier needs to stop the late-season bleeding. Memphis probably is in the field now; a win over SMU would only help seeding. 

No. 13 seeds

51. Iona* (Metro Atlantic)
52. Vermont* (America East)
53. Chattanooga (Southern)
54. Toledo* (MAC)
Buzz: Chattanooga authored the first “One Shining Moment” of March with an overtime 3-pointer to beat Furman by a point in the Southern Conference championship. Vermont, one of the nation’s most experienced teams, would be a tough out as a No. 13 seed. Top-seeded Vermont hosts sixth-seeded Binghamton in the America East semifinals Wednesday. Rick Pitino’s top-seeded Iona team opens MAAC tournament play Wednesday. Top-seeded Toledo opens MAC tournament play Thursday against eighth-seeded Central Michigan.

No. 14 seeds

55. New Mexico State* (WAC)
56. Princeton* (Ivy)
57. UNC Wilmington* (Colonial)
58. Montana State* (Big Sky)
Buzz: UNC-Wilmington is the favorite to win the CAA tournament now that Towson has been ousted; the Seahawks meet Delaware in tonight’s final. The WAC tournament begins Tuesday and runs through Saturday, yet top-seeded New Mexico State only needs to win two games to capture the crown because it gets a double-bye. Princeton, the top seed in the Ivy, will play fourth-seed Cornell in Boston on Saturday in the semifinals. The Big Sky’s top seed, Montana State, will play the Sacramento State-Idaho winner in Thursday’s quarterfinals. 

No. 15 seeds

59. Colgate* (Patriot)
60. Long Beach State* (Big West)
61. Georgia State (Sun Belt)
62. Longwood (Big South)
Buzz: Georgia State earned the Sun Belt’s automatic berth, winning its 10th consecutive game Monday night. Longwood beat Winthrop to earn the Big South’s automatic bid. Top-seeded Long Beach State opens the Big West tournament Wednesday against the winner of Cal State-Bakersfield and Cal State-Northridge. Colgate, which earned the top seed in the Patriot League for the third time in four years, will host second-seeded Navy in the title game Wednesday.

No. 16 seeds

63. Northern Kentucky* (Horizon)
64. Norfolk State* (MEAC)
65/66. Alcorn State* (SWAC)/Nicholls State* (Southland)
67/68. Jacksonville* (Atlantic Sun)/Bryant* (Northeast)
Buzz:  Bellarmine will host Jacksonville on Tuesday in the Atlantic Sun championship. Since Bellarmine is ineligible to earn the automatic berth, regular-season champion Jacksonville State will receive it if Bellarmine beats Jacksonville. Top-seeded Bryant will play second-seeded Wagner on Tuesday for the Northeast championship. Second-seeded Northern Kentucky is the favorite to win the Horizon tournament title now that top-seeded Cleveland State is out. Norfolk State, the top seed in the MEAC, will play No. 8 seed Delaware State in Wednesday’s quarterfinals. Top-seeded Alcorn State will play No. 8 seed Prairie View in the quarterfinals of the SWAC tournament on Wednesday. Top-seeded Nicholls State could play No. 4 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in Friday’s semifinals.