NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region bracket breakdown

Bill Self’s journey to what would be a fourth Final Four appearance is laden with dangerous obstacles later in the bracket. If Kansas, the winner of the Big 12 tournament, advances to the Sweet 16, the Jayhawks could face an Iowa team, the winner of the Big Ten tournament and playing as well as any team offensively. After that could loom Auburn, whose coach, Bruce Pearl, is looking for his second Final Four appearance. The United Center in Chicago could be the host to a terrific regional semifinal and final.

(The other regions: East, South and West)

THE GAMES

Thursday in Fort Worth: No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi/Texas Southern; No. 8 San Diego State vs. No. 9 Creighton
Thursday in Buffalo: No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State; No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond
Friday in Milwaukee: No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate; No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State
Friday in Greenville, S.C.: No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State; No. 7 USC vs. No. 10 Miami

THE PARTICULARS

Most overseeded: Providence. The selection committee did an excellent job with seeding the teams in this region. Almost all are right on the mark. Providence was playing like a No. 4 seed for most of the season and is deserving of that seed. One could quibble and say that Providence and Iowa should be swapped after Iowa’s impressive run through the Big Ten tournament, beating Purdue in the final. But it’s not a strong argument. Bravo, committee. 

Most underseeded: Creighton. After beating Marquette and Seton Hall in the Big East tournament, Creighton fell six points short against Villanova in the final. That tournament run should have been enough to lift Creighton to an eight seed. There is no difference, obviously, between a No. 8 and No. 9 seed. It would not have been unjustified to give Creighton a No. 7 seed, but this is not a major gripe. 

Best player: Wisconsin G Johnny Davis. This is a star-studded region. But Davis, the Big Ten’s player of the year, gets the honor because he is a fantastic offensive player who also can play terrific defense. The 6-foot-5 Davis averaged 19.2 points and 8.2 rebounds. His scoring average improved by more than 12 points from his freshman season. 

Five other stars to watch: Kansas G Ochai Agbaji, Miami G Kameron McGusty, USC F Isaiah Mobley, Iowa F Keegan Murray, Auburn F Jabari Smith

Best player you’ve never heard of: South Dakota State G Baylor Scheierman. The 6-foot-6 sophomore won Summit League player of the year honors. He ranked third in the league in scoring with 18.2 points per game and was the only Division I player to lead his conference in rebounding (8.2 per game) and assists (4.6). He shot 47.3 percent from 3-point range for a team that leads the NCAA in 3-point shooting percentage. 

Three other mid-major stars to watch: San Diego State G Matt Bradley, Colgate G Jack Ferguson, Richmond F Tyler Burton.

Numbers game: There are seven conference tournament champions in the region — Colgate (Patriot), Iowa (Big Ten), Kansas (Big 12), Richmond (Atlantic 10), South Dakota State (Summit), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Southland) and Texas Southern (SWAC). There are 10 Power 6 conference schools in the region, plus one from the Mountain West.

Best 1st-round matchups: Creighton-San Diego State and Providence-South Dakota State. Creighton and SDSU are quality teams on the verge of being seeded higher than in the dreaded 8/9 matchup. Creighton put on a show in the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden, reaching the final against Villanova. San Diego State upset Colorado State in the Mountain West tournament semifinals to reach the final. Both are well-coached and come in hot. If you give Providence a pass on its poor play in the Big East tournament, the Friars are in the midst of an impressive season under Ed Cooley, one of the game’s more underrated coaches. The Friars have beaten the likes of Wisconsin and Texas Tech this season. South Dakota State shoots as well as any team in the nation from beyond the arc. This will be a fun one. 

Best potential 2nd-round matchup: Iowa-South Dakota State: If you like scoring, if you like shooting, this would be the game for you. South Dakota State leads the nation in 3-point shooting. And if you caught much of the Big Ten tournament, the Hawkeyes can score with anyone in the county. Iowa is surging. But if the Jackrabbits get hot from behind the arc, they will stay in the game.  

Etc.: The red carpet has been extended to Wisconsin, giving the Badgers a fairly clear path to the Sweet 16. Not only might Wisconsin play LSU, which just fired coach Will Wade, in the second round, but the Badgers get to play their first two games a short drive from home in Milwaukee. That’s also not a far drive for Iowa State fans in Ames, who should be well-represented for the LSU game. … This is Richmond’s first NCAA tournament appearance since 2011. … Jacksonville State has the distinction of qualifying for the NCAA tournament out of the Atlantic Sun despite not winning the conference tournament in a one-bid league. How? Bellarmine, which is transitioning to Division I, won the Atlantic Sun tournament but was ineligible to compete in the NCAAs. As a result, the automatic bid was given to the regular-season champion. … This region features three of the top 12 teams in the nation in offensive efficiency, per kenpom.com’s ratings: Iowa (2), Kansas (6) and South Dakota State (12). … The Upper Midwest is strongly represented in this region with Iowa, Iowa State, South Dakota State and Wisconsin. You can even extend that to include Creighton and Kansas. … Colgate reached the NCAAs for the third time in the past four seasons. The Raiders rank second nationally in 3-point field goal percentage. 

THE PICKS

1st-round winners: Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Iowa, LSU, Creighton, Miami, South Dakota State
2nd-round winners: Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Iowa
Sweet 16 winners: Kansas, Wisconsin
Advancing to the Final Four: Kansas