NCAA Tournament: West Region bracket breakdown

Gonzaga and Duke played one of the season’s most entertaining and high-level games in November, with Duke squeaking out a victory. The national powers could be on a collision course in the West Regional final at the Chase Center in San Francisco. This is the last dance for Mike Krzyzewski after 42 years at Duke. And Gonzaga is chasing an elusive first NCAA title after coming close the past few seasons, losing last April to Baylor in the national championship.

(The other regions: East, South and Midwest)

THE GAMES

Thursday in Portland: No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Georgia State; No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Memphis
Thursday in Buffalo: No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Vermont; No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State
Friday in San Diego: No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Montana State; No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame
Friday in Greenville, S.C.: No. 2 Duke vs. Cal State Fullerton; No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Davidson

THE PARTICULARS

Most overseeded: Duke. Credit the Blue Devils for winning the regular-season championship in the nation’s sixth-best conference. They had a 9-2 road record, and early-season neutral-court victories over Kentucky and Gonzaga surely played a huge role in boosting Duke to the second line. But it’s reasonable to make the case that Purdue had the stronger overall résumé, including eight Quad 1 wins and, unlike Duke, no losses against Quad 3 teams. The Boilermakers not only had a slew of impressive victories in the more rugged Big Ten — Iowa twice, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan, Rutgers — but it also beat Villanova on a neutral court. 

Most underseeded: Boise State. This one is easy. The NCAA selection committee did a solid job overall with seeding but missed on the Broncos. Coach Leon Rice’s team won the regular season and tournament title in the Mountain West, a league that sent four teams to the NCAAs. The Broncos had 13 victories against Quad 1 or 2 teams and a 14-4 record in road or neutral-court games. While sixth-seeded Colorado State beat Boise State twice during the regular season, there should not be two seed lines separating these two. Boise State deserved a No. 6 or 7 seed. Period. 

Best player: Gonzaga F Chet Holmgren. The 7-foot freshman is college basketball’s unicorn. The Minnesota native can shoot, penetrate, block shots and showcase mobility rarely seen by a player of his size, if at all. He’s the potential No. 1 pick in June’s NBA draft. He has averaged 14.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.6 blocks while shooting 61 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from three-point range. And he’s a game-changer for Gonzaga in part because his mere presence — and wingspan — alters opponents’ shots even when he doesn’t block a shot. The Bulldogs were superb last season, coming within a game of culminating the first undefeated championship season since 1976. But Holmgren gives them an invaluable dimension they did not have last season.

Five other stars to watch: Duke F Paolo Banchero, Memphis C Jalen Duren, Rutgers F Ron Harper Jr., Arkansas guard JD Notae, Texas Tech F Bryson Williams.

Best player you’ve never heard of: New Mexico State G Teddy Allen. You’re not going to find a better, more well-traveled player than the 23-year-old Allen. His winding college journey has taken him from West Virginia to Wichita State to Western Nebraska Community College to Nebraska to New Mexico State. Allen, a 6-foot-6 native of Phoenix, can play; just ask the rest of the Big Ten. He was the league’s sixth-leading scorer last season at Nebraska. This season, he’s averaged 19.3 points and 6.8 rebounds while earning WAC player of the year and newcomer of the year honors.

Three other mid-major stars to watch: Montana State F Jubrile Belo, Davidson F Luka Brajkovic, Vermont F Ryan Davis

Numbers game: There are seven conference tournament champions in the region — Boise State (Mountain West), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Gonzaga (West Coast), Montana State (Big Sky), New Mexico State (WAC) and Vermont (America East). There are eight Power 6 conference teams (including two in a play-in matchup), plus one from the Mountain West and one from the WCC.

Best 1st-round matchups: Boise State-Memphis and Arkansas-Vermont. The Boise State game is classic contrast of styles. The Broncos rank 307th in adjusted tempo, per the kenpom.com ratings; in other words, they play a plodding style. An ultra-athletic Memphis team will try to speed up Boise State. Both enter the tournament playing well. Memphis reached the AAC final, losing to Houston. Boise State won the MWC tournament. Expect a taught matchup throughout. And if you leave aside the loss to Texas A&M in the SEC tournament, Arkansas has played defense as well as anybody in the country since February 1. The Hogs can be tenacious. But Vermont, one of the nation’s most experienced teams, ranks fourth nationally in 2-point field goal percentage. If Vermont can find good shots, it will make shots. This game could be close. 

Best potential 2nd-round matchup: Duke-Michigan State. The potential matchup that catches everyone’s eyes for sure is Duke-Michigan State. Here we go again with these two iconic coaches. This is close to a vintage Duke team. This is not a vintage Michigan State team. Doesn’t matter. This would be must-see TV … if the Spartans can get past another well-coached team, Davidson. 

Etc.: The NCAA selection committee could have placed Duke in the East Regional, so Coach K could potentially play the regional final in Philadelphia 30 years after Christian Laettner made a shot in that city that is rather memorable. Nope, the Blue Devils’ path to the Final Four goes through San Francisco. … The Tom Izzo-Bob McKillop meeting is among the highest-level coaching matchups in recent history in the first round. … Montana State has the most wins (27) for the school since the 1928-29 season. … Each of the top three seeds has appeared in at least one NCAA title game since 2015.

THE PICKS

1st-round winners: Gonzaga, Duke, Texas Tech, Arkansas, UConn, Michigan State, Memphis, Rutgers
2nd-round winners: Gonzaga, Duke, Texas Tech, Arkansas
Sweet 16 winners: Gonzaga, Texas Tech
Advancing to the Final Four: Gonzaga