2022 SEC win totals: Analyzing projections for all 14 conference teams

With the 2022 college football season only a few short months away, wise guys continue to release projected over/under win totals for teams across the sport. 

While it’s always smart to shop around for the best numbers, Caesars/William Hill released its updated 2022 SEC numbers, with Georgia and Alabama the only two teams in the conference expected to win double-digits games this fall. 

So with the latest information, here’s a little Too High? Too Low? Just Right? with the SEC projections. 

Georgia: 11 — Just right 

Georgia must replace a historically dominant defense, but they have plenty of future Sunday players still on the roster. Oh, and the schedule sets up quite nicely for the defending national champions. The opener against Oregon in Atlanta is tough but Georgia will be favored in all 12 games this fall. A second-straight undefeated regular season isn’t out the question. 

Alabama: 11 — Too low

Alabama is not losing more than one regular season game in 2022. There’s a couple potential tricky road spots (at Tennessee right after hosting Texas A&M, at Ole Miss in mid-November), but only a devastating injury to Bryce Young has this under hitting, with the much likelier outcome being a 12-0 regular season. Some books have Alabama’s O/U listed at 10.5, with major juice to the over, which makes little since given longtime handicapper’s like Danny Sheridan have the Tide favored in every game by at least two touchdowns in 2022.

Texas A&M: 8.5 — Too low

Texas A&M is unsettled at quarterback and young at defensive line, but this roster is too good not to get to 9 wins. Is this Jimbo Fisher’s breakout season in College Station? It doesn’t have to be for this total to go over. Miami is a big non-conference game but the rest of the schedule sets up fairly nicely for the Aggies (get a down UF as cross-division rotation, home games against Arkansas, LSU and Ole Miss). 

Kentucky: 8.5 — Just right

A couple sportsbooks jumped the gun on their preseason win totals and shorted Mark Stoops’ team so badly (some opening 7s) they had to completely shift the number after getting hammered. It’s settled at the correct spot, though, as Kentucky has one of the easier slates in the SEC this fall. Another 10-win season is possible if some concerns along their offensive and defensive lines are assuaged. Win at Florida in Week 2 and this total might sail over. 

Ole Miss: 8 — Too high

Although Ole Miss has an extra vanilla non-conference scheduled and Vandy is one of their cross-division foes, to land just a push here would require them win their share of 50-50 games. They have the offensive fireworks to pull that off, but their schedule is really backloaded (LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi State), so they can’t leave any wins on the table to start the season for this total to hit over.

Tennessee: 7.5 — Too low

Depending on how the line settles in Week 2 at Pitt, Tennessee could be favored in nine games in 2022 (exceptions being Alabama, at Georgia, at LSU). In Year 1 under Josh Heupel, Tennessee went 7-6 with three losses coming in one-score games. The offense might be even better in 2022. The Vols could get waxed by both Alabama and Georgia but simply split their projected toss-up games (Pitt, Florida, Kentucky, LSU) and they still hit the over here.

Arkansas: 7 — Too low

The schedule is among the most difficult in the nation (SEC West + non-con games against Cincy and at BYU) but I’m banking on Sam Pittman, KJ Jefferson and continuity (both coordinators are back, lots of returning production) to get Arkansas to at least eight wins in 2022. At worst you’re looking at a push here.

Florida: 7 — Just right

Bill Napier won 10+ games in three straight seasons at Louisiana-Lafayette but UF’s first-year coach is going to have to claw his way to more than 7+ wins in 2022. The good news is Alabama isn’t on the schedule this year and Florida opens its season with back-to-back home games. The bad news is they’re against Utah and Kentucky — two projected Top 20 teams — and the Gators must also play at Tennessee and at Texas A&M.

LSU: 7 — Just right

Brian Kelly took over the roster with very little returning production, so he pounded the portal and at least has LSU set up to compete in most games in 2022. Quarterback is still an unknown, but one of the league’s best defensive lines should keep LSU in most games. The schedule is spicy though, with a showdown against Florida State to open the season plus a November that includes playing Alabama and road games at Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Mississippi State: 6.5 — Just right

Mike Leach has his best roster since arriving in Starkville, including a veteran quarterback and an underrated defense. The non-conference schedule is a joke, so four wins are banked in. But Mississippi State still stands to be big underdogs against Georgia, Alabama and Texas A&M, while the rest of their conference slate are all essentially toss-up games. MSU would have to go 3-2 against Ole Miss, Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas and Auburn for the over to hit.

Auburn: 6.5 — Too high

It’s unclear what Bryan Harsin did to deserve such pain, but Auburn plays perhaps among the most treacherous schedules in the country this fall. They host Penn State in Week 3. They have road games at Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss. I could see Auburn squeaking its way to bowl eligibility, but clearing that hurdle by a full win? That’s a bridge too far with an offense that has far too many unknowns.

South Carolina: 5.5 — Too low

By just a smidge. Shane Beamer navigated South Carolina to bowl eligibility in Year 1 without a fixture at quarterback or any real skill-talent, so it’s hard to see that not happening again now that Spencer Rattler & Co., are wearing Garnet and Black. South Carolina could lose every preseason Top 25 matchup on its schedule (at Arkansas, Georgia, at Kentucky, Texas A&M, Tennessee, at Clemson) and still get to six wins. 

Missouri: 5 — Just right

Take a peak at the Missouri roster, and then their schedule, and you really have to squint to see Eli Drinkwitz getting his team bowl eligible. Missouri’s non-conference is always chalked with gimmies, but it even includes a road date with Kansas State in Week 2. Aside from hosting Vandy in late October, the Tigers won’t be favored in a single SEC game this fall.

Vanderbilt: 2 — Just right

Vanderbilt will be a better team in 2022, even if the nation’s longest conference losing streak is likely to continue. Clark Lea has a young roster but there’s several promising freshmen who could grow into bigger roles by season’s end. The non-conference schedule (at Hawaii, 2021 ACC runner-up Wake Forest and MAC champion Northern Illinois) is actually really tough outside of a home date with Elon but I think they win in Week 0. Then maybe, just maybe, Vandy can pull off an upset late in the year (at Missouri or vs. South Carolina) to hit the over.