2023 ACC Basketball Tournament: Updated projected seeds, schedule, magic numbers

The ACC regular season slate is drawing towards a close. It’s certainly been a weird year for the league since blue-blood powers North Carolina and Duke are nowhere to be seen near the very top of the standings, meanwhile teams like Pittsburgh and Miami have a real shot to win the league this year. With just a few games to go, the folks over at PlayoffStatus.com have broken down the exact odds to win the ACC crown as of today as well as the projected order of finish.

As of Tuesday morning, here are the latest ACC Standings:

ACC Standings

1. Virginia (13-3)
2. Miami (13-4)
3. Pittsburgh (12-4)
4. Clemson (11-5)
5. NC State (11-6)
6. Duke (11-6)
7. Wake Forest (9-7)
8. Syracuse (9-7)
9. North Carolina (8-8)
10. Boston College (7-10)
11. Virginia Tech (6-10)
12. Florida State (6-11)
13. Georgia Tech (3-13)
14. Notre Dame (2-14)
15. Louisville (2-15)

Virginia, Miami and Pittsburgh are the only three teams with more than a 1% chance to win the ACC according to PlayoffStatus, with the Cavaliers leading the way at a 56% chance to win the conference crown. Meanwhile, Miami comes in right behind them at 31% while Pitt holds on to a 13% to win it. Those three are predicted to finish 1-2-3 in the league regardless of order, with Clemson pegged as the most likely team to nab the four-seed, which would give them, along with those other three, a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.

PlayoffStatus also provides “magic numbers” for these teams, meaning: how many games would a team have to win to finish in a certain spot.

Looking at the one-seed, Virginia controls its own destiny. If the Cavaliers win their final four games, they’ll automatically lock up the title. No other team can win out and guarantee a share of the regular season title if the Hoos are to do so themselves. As for second place, Miami and Pittsburgh both have the opportunity to secure the No. 2 spot by winning out. Obviously, though, both can’t do it as they face each other in the regular season finale.

At the very bottom of the ACC standings, Louisville does not control their own destiny in climbing out of last place. If Notre Dame wins three of their final four games, the Irish could guarantee staying above the Cards in the final standings. Georgia Tech can do the same and avoid for certain a last-place finish by winning three of four, and would clinch at least 13th place if they win out. However, ND and UL are all helplessly stuck as two of the bottom three in the league no matter if they all win out.

With those numbers settled, let’s look at the ACC action tonight that could cause a shakeup. Then, take a look further down to check out the ACC Tournament Schedule.

Tuesday Feb. 21:

Miami @ Virginia Tech | 7 p.m. (ESPNU)

Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh | 7 p.m. (ACC Network)

Tournament Schedule

Games will air on ESPN, ESPN2 and the ACC Network

First Round: Tues., March 7
Game 1: No. 12 seed vs. No. 13 seed | 2 p.m.
Game 2: No. 10 seed vs. No. 15 seed | 4:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 11 seed vs. No. 14 seed | 7 p.m.

Second Round: Wed., March 8
Game 4: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed | Noon
Game 5: No. 5 seed vs. Game 1 winner | 2:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 7 seed vs. Game 2 winner | 7 p.m.
Game 7: No. 6 seed vs. Game 3 winner | 9:30 p.m.

Quarterfinals: Thurs., March 9
Game 8: No. 1 seed vs. Game 4 winner | Noon
Game 9: No. 4 seed vs. Game 5 winner | 2:30 p.m.
Game 10: No. 2 seed vs. Game 6 winner | 7 p.m.
Game 11: No. 3 seed vs. Game 7 winner | 9:30 p.m.

Semifinals: Fri., March 10
Game 12: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner | 7 p.m.
Game 13: Game 10 winner vs. Game 11 winner | 9:30 p.m.

Championship: Sat., March 11
Game 14: Game 12 winner vs. Game 13 winner | 8:30 p.m.