2023 ACC win totals: Analyzing schedule projections from league-favorite Florida State to bottom-feeder Virginia

The 2023 college football season is still several months away, but sports books everywhere have begun to release over/under win total projections for the fall. 

After Power Ranking each P5 conference last week, this week we’ll look at the win total numbers released by DraftKings Sportsbook. We debuted the series analyzing projections for all 14 SEC teams. Then we released opinions on the Big Ten projections, and yesterday we published my thoughts on the Big 12. 

Today, we look at the ACC, which has only Florida State as a team projected to win at least 10 games in 2023. Is that right? What about Clemson? What is Miami’s win-total after a disastrous Year 1 under a new staff?

So with the latest information, here’s a little Post-Spring Too High? Too Low? Just Right? with the ACC win total projections. 

Florida State Seminoles: 10 — JUST RIGHT

The Seminoles went 9-3 in the regular season in 2022, losing their three hardest ACC games but beating LSU and Florida and routing Miami. 

Now Mike Norvell returns the most experienced team in the nation in 2023, with stars (like QB Jordan Travis and future 1st Round edge rusher Jared Verse) littered across the roster. 

So why isn’t this slightly higher? Because the ‘Noles likely still need to prove to the analytics community it’s not going to randomly drop a game they shouldn’t. They’ll be favored in 10 of 12 games in the fall, and could still beat LSU or Clemson, too. They haven’t won 10 games since 2016, but that does feel like the floor of expectations for this year’s year. 

Clemson Tigers: 9.5 — TOO LOW

While I’m higher on FSU than Clemson this fall, Dabo Swinney’s team should have the same win total considering it gets to host the Seminoles in Week 4, and also plays several of its toughest games in Death Valley, as well (Notre Dame, North Carolina). 

Swinney has won at least 10 regular-season games in 10 of the last 12 years, and it’s hard to see the Tigers falling short of that number in 2023 with an upgrade at offensive coordinator (TCU’s Garrett Riley) and quarterback (a full season of 5-star Cade Klubnick). 

North Carolina Tar Heels: 8.5 — TOO HIGH

Drake Maye is the second-best quarterback in college, but even the potential No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft can only cover up so much on a team breaking in a new OC, losing top wideout Josh Downs and dealing with continued questions on defense. 

The Tar Heels are the reigning ACC Coastal Champs, but with divisions scrapped, their schedule is tougher this fall. They play at Pitt, Clemson and NC State — arguably three of their toughest conference games. Their non-conference slate is tricky, too, with a neutral site opener against South Carolina and then home dates with App. State and Minnesota. 

Louisville Cardinals: 7.5 — TOO LOW

I’ve been bullish on the Cardinals all offseason, and their latest work this spring in the transfer portal has only reinforced that belief. 

Jeff Brohm couldn’t ask for a better Year 1 schedule for Louisville, as the Cards avoid the league’s top three projected teams in terms of win-totals (FSU, Clemson and North Carolina). 

They play just three true road games all season and end the year with four of five at home. At worst, Louisville has the makeup + cupcake schedule of a baseline 8-4 team. 

Miami Hurricanes: 7.5 — JUST RIGHT

The Hurricanes are among the hardest teams to handicap in the ACC this fall after so much offseason turnover on the coaching staff and roster.

In an attempt to correct a litany of mistakes in Year 1, Mario Cristobal totally retooled his staff, bringing in two new coordinators and five new assistants. He culled Miami’s roster, too, loading up on 5-star OL signees and the transfer portal. 

Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke is back, but we still don’t know if he’ll be the All-ACC 2021 performer or last year’s version that was benched multiple times. Miami’s schedule includes a Week 2 home game versus Texas A&M and road games at UNC, NC State and FSU. 

North Carolina State Wolfpack: 6.5 — TOO LOW

The Wolfpack expect to be better offensively this year with the addition of former Virginia OC Robert Anae and ex-Cavs QB Brennan Armstrong, and the strength of the team remains a stout defense that returns six starters, including linebacker Payton Wilson.

Dave Doren managed to guide NC State to eight wins a year ago playing four different quarterbacks. With stability at the position now, coupled with a schedule that features almost all of NC State’s toughest games (most winnable) all at Carter-Finely Stadium (Notre Dame, Louisville, Clemson, Miami and North Carolina), this number is slightly too low. 

Syracuse Orange: 6.5 — JUST RIGHT

The Orange return quarterback Garrett Shrader and the ACC’s leading receiver Oronde Gadsden II, but their offense still has plenty of question marks with a newly-promoted OC (Jason Bech), no Sean Tucker and an OL with four new starters. The defense is undergoing a slight transition as well with Rocky Long taking over for the departed Tony While (now at Nebraska). 

Dino Babers is on the hot seat entering his eighth season with the Orange, and he drew one of the stranger ACC schedules in 2023. 

Syracuse has a pair of non-conference cupcakes to open the season (Colgate and Western Michigan) before playing at Purdue and then hosting Army. 

Then after a home game against Clemson, the Orange are away from the Dome for five of their next six games — four true road games (UNC, FSU, Va. Tech) and a neutral site game vs. Pitt at Yankee Stadium. 

Duke Blue Devils: 6.5 — JUST RIGHT

Mike Elko proved any doubters wrong in his inaugural season with the program, delivering the Blue Devils one of their best seasons (10-4) in the team’s 134-year history.

Riley Leonard is back at QB, and Duke also returns eight other offensive starters. The defense, much improved last season (a 17-point game drop in points allowed), returns eight starters, too and added a couple of impact transfers. Both units will need to continue to outperform expectations if Duke is going to sustain last season’s success. 

The Blue Devils have one of the gnarliest schedules of any ACC program, playing nine bowl teams in 2023. They host Clemson in Week 1, and Notre Dame at the end of September, with road games at FSU, Louisville and North Carolina. 

It wouldn’t be a shock if Elko leads Duke to seven or eight wins again this year, but just barely making a bowl game for a program that wasn’t expected to contend for anything a year ago seems quite possible facing a more difficult schedule, too.  

Pittsburgh Panthers: 6.5 — TOO LOW

In a full 12-game slate under Pat Narduzzi, the Panthers have never won fewer than seven regular-season games in six of seven years. 

Yet the sportsbooks are shortchanging Pitt again in 2023. Working behind a better offensive line, BC transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec should be an upgrade for an offense that regressed after losing Kenny Pickett to the NFL — and the Panthers still won eight regular-season games a year ago. 

They do have a much more challenging non-conference schedule this fall (another Backyard Brawl with West Virginia, plus a road game at Notre Dame and a Week 2 home date with Cincy), but they don’t play Clemson and do have FSU, North Carolina and Louisville at home. 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 5.5 — TOO LOW

While we don’t know exactly what to expect from quarterback Mitch Griffis, who takes over behind center for Sam Hartman in 2023, it’s notable that the Demon Deacons essentially let Hartman walk to Notre Dame with little-to-no resistance. They like what they have in Griffis, and Dave Clawson’ has a track record of getting the most of whoever he has under center. 

Clawson also has a history of winning games at a program that is notoriously hard to get good results. He’s taken Wake Forest bowling in seven-straight seasons. The Deacons open with Elon, Vandy, Old Dominion and Georgia Tech in the first four weeks. They absolutely could be 4-0 before a road trip to Clemson. 

The sportsbooks are sleeping on Wake with a win-total south of at least flat-six. 

Boston College Eagles: 5.5 — JUST RIGHT

While Boston College’s defense, led by All-ACC pass rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku, projects to be better in 2023, this is still a team that has major issues offensively (namely a new QB and an OL that allowed an ACC-high 46 sacks last season). 

And yet, Jeff Hafley, who enters his fourth season at BC on a bubbling hot seat, drew one of the more favorable schedules in the league this fall. 

BC has four winnable non-conference and avoids Clemson, North Carolina and NC State in league play. There’s a chance the Eagles go bowling in 2023 if the offense finds enough of a spark. 

Virginia Tech Hokies: 4.5 — TOO HIGH

This number opened at various sportsbooks at 5 or 5.5 and has continued to be bet down — and it’s still too high. 

Va. Tech was awful offensively in 2022, and although a number of transfer additions should help, this is still a unit that lacks the juice compared to most other ACC offenses. 

The Hokies play three toss-up non-conference games (Purdue, at Rutgers and at Marshall), and they might be favored in just a single ACC game all season. This number is at least half a win too lofty. 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: 4 — TOO LOW

Brent Key brought some much-needed stability to a program last season after he took over for Geoff Collins, going 4-4 and nearly taking Georgia Tech to a bowl game. 

So now that he has a full 12-game slate the floor is a 4-win season?

Progress isn’t linear, but the Yellow Jackets aren’t totally bereft of talent and their 2023 staff is better, too. Tech’s defense remains a problem, but under former Georgia analyst Buster Faulkner, the offense looks primed to deliver improved results. 

The schedule is tough — two SEC games vs. Ole Miss and Georgia — but there’s more than just four wins on this slate for a team that should be better in Key’s first season. 

Virginia Cavaliers: 3.5 — JUST RIGHT 

The Hoos have suffered major regression in recent years, as Tony Elliott must navigate a program past last year’s awful tragedy without falling further behind in the ACC. 

Virginia’s offense will look totally different in 2023 without Armstrong at QB, plus prolific wideouts Keytaon Thompson, Billy Kemp and Dontayvion Wicks. The Cavs also lost four starting offensive linemen. 

Virginia doesn’t play Clemson or Florida State, and yet it will be hard-pressed to win even four games with a non-con slate that features Tennessee, James Madison and Maryland — three games the Cavs could absolutely go 0-3 against.