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2023 Big 12 Basketball Tournament: Updated projected seeds, schedule, magic numbers

ns_headshot_2024-clearby:Nick Schultz•02/21/23•

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Winters | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

By all accounts, the Big 12 has been the best conference in college basketball this year. That should make for an interesting conference tournament, and playoffstatus.com continues to project how the final seedings will shake out.

Current Big 12 Tournament seeding projections

Entering play Tuesday night, here are the conference standings:

  1. Kansas — 23-5 (11-4)
  2. Texas — 21-6 (10-4)
  3. Baylor — 20-7 (9-5)
  4. Kansas State — 20-7 (8-6)
  5. Iowa State — 17-9 (8-6)
  6. TCU — 18-10 (7-8)
  7. Oklahoma State — 16-12 (7-8)
  8. West Virginia — 16-12 (5-10)
  9. Texas Tech — 15-12 (5-10)
  10. Oklahoma — 13-14 (3-11)

Kansas has the highest probability to land the No. 1 seed in the tournament with a 68% chance of taking the top spot followed by Texas at 28%, according to Playoff Status. Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State still have an outside chance of finishing atop the standings, but they’re making the race for the Nos. 2-5 seeds even more interesting. Texas is the favorite to be the No. 2 seed with a 31% chance, Baylor has a 31% chance of being the No. 3 seed, Kansas State has a 32% chance of jumping to the No. 4 seed and there’s a 33% chance Iowa State ends up as the No. 5 seed.

Kansas’ magic number to clinch the No. 1 seed is 3 while Texas’ magic number is 4 because the Longhorns have played one fewer game.

Looking at the bottom five teams in the conference, TCU has a 53% chance of holding onto its spot as the No. 6 seed and there’s a 51% chance Oklahoma State stays in the No. 7 spot. From there, West Virginia is right on the border of the No. 8 and No. 9 seed lines, with a 41% chance of finishing eighth and a 40% chance of finishing ninth. Texas Tech has a 34% probability of finishing eight with 29% chances of finishing ninth and 10th. However, it appears Oklahoma is likely to finish last with a 58% probability of being the No. 10 seed.

There are three Big 12 games scheduled for Tuesday night, all of which have big seeding implications.

  • Baylor at Kansas State: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
  • Iowa State at Texas: 9 p.m. ET (Longhorn Network)
  • Texas Tech at Oklahoma: 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

2023 Big 12 Basketball Tournament schedule

The 2023 Big 12 tournament is set for March 8-11 at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.

First Round: Wed., March 8
Game 1: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed | 6 p.m. CT
Game 2: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 seed | 8:30 p.m.
Quarterfinals: Thurs., March 9
Game 3: No. 4 seed vs. No. 5 seed | 11:30 a.m.
Game 4: No. 1 seed vs. Game 1 winner | 2 p.m.
Game 5: No. 2 seed vs. Game 2 winner | 6 p.m.
Game 6: No. 3 seed vs. No. 6 seed | 8:30 p.m.
Semifinals: Fri., March 10
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner | 6 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner | 8:30 p.m.
Championship: Sat., March 11
Game 9: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner | 7 p.m.