2023 Coaching Carousel Rumblings: Setting the table for this cycle, coaches who could really use a win Saturday

As the calendar turned to November, the 2023 coaching carousel isn’t spinning as wildly in years past. Not yet at least. 

Northwestern and Michigan State are the lone head coach openings thus far — and neither Pat Fitzgerald or Mel Tucker were fired for on-field results. This time last season, Bryan Harsin got the ax on Halloween, with Auburn quickly turning its sights on Lane Kiffin and Hugh Freeze. 

We know how that turned out. 

Overall, there were 24 head coaching changes during the last carousel headlined by Deion Sanders at Colorado, Matt Rhule at Nebraska and Luke Fickell at Wisconsin. Barring some major domino fires and hires, there doesn’t figure to be as much movement this cycle. Why? Well, there are monumental changes in college football next year with major conference realignment and the introduction of the 12-team College Football Playoff. 

Add in a slew of bloated buyouts (which is their intended purpose to protect against trigger-happy ADs and school presidents), uncertainty around the future of NIL (will there be added guardrails or will the sport simply move to true player compensation?) and the sheer volume of coaching changes the last two years combined (53), only so many jobs will come open. 

Still, there will be moves, and there’s always a surprise opening or two. 

So the the storm isn’t brewing just yet. But stay tuned.

Iowa finally moves on from Brian Ferentz, but could Kirk Ferentz follow his son out of the door at year’s end?

Credit interim Hawkeyes AD Beth Goetz, who had the cajones to do what Gary Barda did not: Look Kirk Ferentz in the eyes and say, “Enough.”

On Monday, Goetz announced that Iowa’s punchline Drive for 325 was over, releasing a statement that Kirk’s eldest son, embattled OC Brian Ferentz, would leave the program at the end of Iowa’s season. It was notable that A) The Hawkeyes announced such a move mid-year and B) that Kirk Ferentz was not mentioned at all in the statement. 

Goetz publicly humbled Ferentz in a way he never has been in his 24 seasons as the Hawkeyes’ head coach. That’s bold.

“My policy has typically been to evaluate everything — players, coaches, all that — postseason because in-season we have a lot on our plates,” Kirk Ferentz said Tuesday, disagreeing with the timing of the decision. 

“That’s kind of been the nature of it, and it’s been that way probably since I got started full-time in ’81. There’s not enough time in the day. That’s where our focus is.

“Everything you do is precious in terms of time relations. So to me, it’s a better time. It’s a less emotional time. I can give you a lot of reasons why I’ve done it that way, but it really doesn’t matter. It’s really not significant right now because we’re dealing with something that we have to deal with, and we will.”

Ferentz is 68, and the fact is he never was going to fire his son — neither for poor performance or nepotism reasons. This is the offense he wants to run. 

The question is will he hire a new OC or simply leave Iowa on his own terms with his son? He declined to answer questions about his future Tuesday, saying, “My plans are like they always are — to worry about this game, and bigger picture these four games. That’s where my focus has been this entire season. That’s what I think about, each and every year it’s been pretty consistent.”

He backtracked from those comments in a follow-up statement Wednesday, saying, “While my immediate focus is on finishing the season strong, I love coaching and my intent is to continue coaching here at the University of Iowa. We have built something very special here and I plan to coach until I am no longer passionate about the game, players or coaches.”

The Hawkeyes are 6-2 and remain in the hunt for the Big Ten West title despite fielding the single worst offense in all of college football (4.1 yards per play). If Kirk Ferentz were to retire at season’s end, Iowa would become an extremely attractive opening on the market. 

Five coaches who could really use a win this weekend 

I don’t think any of these coaches are in danger of getting fired on Sunday. Some — maybe all? — might not get fired come the end of the season. But based on how things are going presently, these guys could use all the goodwill they can muster right now.

Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M: at No. 10 Ole Miss — Duh. Right? The Aggies have lost eight straight road games and their offense is only marginally better under Bobby Petrino (5.9 yards per play vs. 5.73) this year.

Dino Babers, Syracuse: vs Boston College — The Orange are winless in ACC play, losers of four straight games. It’s Year 8 for Babers, and the clock could be ticking if he doesn’t turn this season around. 

Dana Holgerson, Houston: at Baylor — The Cougars were blasted 41-0 at Kansas State last weekend, moving to 3-5 on the year. Holgo could be tempting fate if Houston misses a bowl game. Fortunately for him, the schedule is favorable enough for Houston to pickup three more wins (at Baylor, vs. Cincy and UCF — all three are a combined 2-13 in Big 12 play).

Tom Allen, Indiana: vs Wisconsin — The Hoosiers nearly upset No. 11 Penn State last weekend, but then Allen & Co., turtled late in the game by opting to settle for a game-tying field goal rather than play for the win. Allen, who has a crazy $20 million buyout, has already fired his OC and Indiana has now lost four straight.

Zach Arnett, Mississippi State: vs Kentucky — Arnett was promoted to head coach under difficult circumstances following Mike Leach’s tragically unexpected death last December, and despite inheriting the most veteran team in the country, the Bulldogs are just 4-4 with a single SEC win — a yakety sax 7-3 victory over Arkansas. They got killed last weekend at Auburn and now they’re home ‘dogs to a reeling Kentucky team. He’s the lowest-paid coach by far in the SEC (just $4.5 million) and the AD who promoted him is now at Auburn. Arnett badly needs some wins, starting Saturday.