2023 Conference Realignment: Why Liberty and UTSA could be historical outliers and compete for a league title in Year 1 in new leagues

If July 1, 2024 will be the main event, then Saturday served as college football’s latest opening act. 

Conference realignment has become college football’s summer jam, with schools across the country playing their own version of musical chairs and switching leagues. 

Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA will all make seismic moves official on July 1 next year, but just two days ago, 14 other programs changed conferences starting this fall. 

UCF, Cincy, Houston and BYU all officially became members of the Big 12. 

Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA joined the American, while Liberty, Jacksonville State, New Mexico State and Sam Houston all switched affiliations to Conference USA. 

Keeping with the theme here, this year’s round of realignment features an eclectic mix of programs, with several former G5 powers making the leap to the Power 5, a trio of independent schools joining a league and several programs making the jump from the FCS to the FBS. 

Programs typically struggle to compete for a conference championship their first few seasons in a new league — especially in Year 1. Historical outliers include Miami, which joined the Big East in 1991 and promptly went 12-0 and won the national title. The very next fall, the Hurricanes’ in-state rival Florida State became members of the ACC, and won the league in its first nine seasons in the new conference. Elsewhere, before joining the ACC in 2014, Louisville went 12-1 and tied for first in the American in 2013 — its lone season in the league after going from Independence to Conference USA to the Big East in a 20-year span.

But mostly, history is full of schools changing conferences and struggling mightily in Year 1.

In the near future, UCF, Cincy and Houston all look primed to eventually contend in the Big 12, but none are expected to push Texas, Kansas State or Oklahoma for the league title this fall. Likewise, UAB is a program will plenty of recent success, but under first-year under head coach Trent Dilfer, this fall stands to be a tough transition into the American. 

However, 2023 could be an outlier season for two programs switching affiliations — both of whom have strong cases to make major noise and perhaps even win their leagues as soon as this fall. 

Here’s why Liberty and UTSA might be major outliers in the latest conference realignment shuffle:

Liberty — Independent to C-USA

The Flames didn’t become an FBS program until 2018, and yet they have an excellent opportunity to win Conference USA in their first season as an ex-Independent. 

Huge Freeze is gone to Auburn, but Jamey Chadwell racked up wins at Coastal Carolina (31 victories the last three seasons) and now coaches at a school in an easier league with more resources. The Flames project to have one of the better tailbacks in C-USA in Wake Forest transfer Quinton Cooley, and with a deep and inexperienced offensive line, the unit should be able to withstand some QB growing pains in Chadwell’s prolific spread-option attack. 

Freeze left behind a solid defensive foundation off a unit that held BYU and Arkansas under 20 points in two wins last fall, with tackle Kendy Charles the team’s top NFL prospect. Still, the group faded in the latter half of 2022 (four straight losses), so it will need to be more consistent if they’re going to be a true Year 1 outlier in a new league. 

The Flames look to be favored in the majority of their games in 2023, so an Oct. 24 road date with Western Kentucky, the presumed C-USA favorite, and then a potential rematch in the title game could decide the league this fall. With no divisions, the team with the top regular-season record will host the league title game, so Liberty could have to play twice at WKU. 

UTSA — C-USA to American

The Roadrunners won the last two Conference USA titles and are 23-5 during that span under Jeff Taylor — one of the top G5 coaches in the country. They’re making a big jump to the American, a much more competitive league, but UTSA returns senior quarterback Frank Harris and eight other offensive starters. Star wideout Zakhari Franklin transferred to Ole Miss and OC Will Stein is now at Oregon, but the Roadrunners’ offense should remain one of the more potent G5 attacks nationally. 

They’re a fringe Top 25 team, particularly if their defense can overcome several key losses in the secondary. 

With Cincy, UCF and Houston all now in the Big 12, there’s a power vacuum waiting to be filled in the American. The Roadrunners, along with Tulane, last year’s conference champ, and SMU all look to be in a battle this fall to grab the reigns of supremacy in Year 1 of a new-look league.