2023 Pac-12 Basketball Tournament: Updated projected seeds, schedule, magic numbers

The final weekend of the regular season is here. Yes, that means relief for California and Oregon State fans, but excitement for contenders such as UCLA and Arizona. The top three and bottom two seeds for the Pac-12 Tournament are already decided, but with one more Saturday slate to play, most seeds are still up for grabs. So, let’s take a look at the current conference standings and the probabilities for teams to finish with certain seeds, thanks to our friends over at PlayoffStatus.

Let’s begin with a look at the standings:

Pac-12 Standings

1. UCLA, 26-4 (17-2)
2. Arizona, 25-5 (14-5)
3. USC, 21-9 (13-6)
4. Arizona State, 20-10 (11-8)
5. Oregon, 17-13 (11-8)
6. Utah, 17-13 (10-9)
7. Washington State, 16-15 (11-9)
8. Washington, 16-15 (8-12)
9. Colorado, 15-15 (7-12)
10. Stanford, 13-17 (7-12)
11. Oregon State, 10-20 (4-15)
12. California, 3-27 (2-17)

Well, this time around, UCLA has officially locked up the Pac-12 regular season crown and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament at three games above second-place Arizona with just one more league game to go for each this weekend. Speaking of the Wildcats, they and USC are also locked in to second and third place respectively.

So, the real fun starts at fourth place, where NCAA Tournament hopefuls Oregon and Arizona State are both in contention for the final first-round bye in the Pac-12 tourney. As we round into the final weekend of regular season play, the Sun Devils need a win at USC plus an Oregon loss at home to Stanford to finish fourth. The Ducks just need to either beat the Cardinal or have ASU lose vs. the Trojans. PlayoffStatus believes the Ducks have an 88% chance to finish fourth while ASU is just at 12% given those scenarios.

Speaking of Stanford, they’re the lowest-seeded team at the moment who isn’t locked in to their spot. California is nestled comfortably in last place while Oregon State is on an island at 11th. However, the Cardinal need a win and a Colorado loss to leap from 10th to eighth, but are oddly locked out of finishing ninth since they would be third due to tiebreakers in a three-way tie between them, Colorado and Washington (who is already done with their regular season).

So, still a lot to be decided during the final slate of games this Saturday. Take a look at those right here:

Pac-12 Schedule for March 4

• Stanford @ Oregon | 1 p.m. PT (CBS)
• Utah @ Colorado | 2:30 PT (Pac-12)
• California @ Oregon State | 5 p.m. PT (Pac-12)
• Arizona @ UCLA | 7 p.m. PT (ESPN)
• Arizona State @ USC | 8 p.m. PT (FS1)

Conference Tournament Schedule

* Rough estimate

Wed., March 8 TV (Talent)
Game 1: No. 8 seed vs. No. 9 seed, 12:00 p.m. PT Pac-12 Network (Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean)
Game 2: No. 5 seed vs. California, 2:30 p.m. PT* Pac-12 Network (Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean)
Game 3: No. 7 seed vs. No. 10 seed, 6:00 p.m. PT Pac-12 Network (Ted Robinson, Bill Walton)
Game 4: No. 6 seed vs. Oregon State, 8:30 p.m. PT* Pac-12 Network (Ted Robinson, Bill Walton)

Thurs., March 9
Game 5: UCLA vs. Game 1 winner, 12:00 p.m. PT Pac-12 Network (Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean)
Game 6: No. 4 seed vs. Game 2 winner, 2:30 p.m. PT* Pac-12 Network (Roxy Bernstein, Don MacLean)
Game 7: Arizona vs. Game 3 winner, 6:00 p.m. PT Pac-12 Network (Ted Robinson, Bill Walton)
Game 8: USC vs. Game 4 winner, 8:30 p.m. PT* ESPN (Dave Pasch, Bill Walton)

Fri., March 10
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 6:00 p.m. PT Pac-12 Network (Ted Robinson, Bill Walton)
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 8:30 p.m. PT* ESPN (Dave Pasch, Bill Walton)

Sat., March 11
Game 11: Championship, 7:30 p.m. PT ESPN (Dave Pasch, Bill Walton)