2023 Pressure Check Rankings: Which Big Ten head coaches are under the most pressure to win this fall?

College football coaches, from Kirby Smart to Lincoln Riley, love to talk about how “pressure is a privilege,” and for some that’s true. 

Coaches like Smart and Riley aren’t in any danger of ever being fired, but there’s a demand for their programs to be excellent. To win championships. 

For others, there’s the burden of not meeting expectations, so they’re under pressure to win now or else risk finding their names on the coaching carousel come November. 

So this week, we’re going to do a Pressure Check on every Power 5 head coach. We started with the SEC and today we look at the Big Ten. Reminder: This is not a hot seat list. It’s a pressure gauge — Low, Medium, High and Extreme.

Bret Bielema, Illinois — Low

After delivering Illinois its best season in 15 years, Bret Bielema is riding high in Champaign. 

The Fighting Illini nearly won the Big Ten West title last fall and Bielema has raised the floor of the program by improving its recruiting and player-development. Continue to win the games he’s supposed to, and Bielema will be at Illinois for a while. 

Tom Allen, Indiana — High

Tom Allen is just 6-18 the last two years, and has just two winning seasons in six years with the Hoosiers. Indiana was quietly very aggressive in the transfer portal this offseason, with Allen hoping a slew of new faces will help lead to more wins. 

Allen is extremely well-liked and has a $20 million buyout,  both of which could come in handy come early December when the Hoosiers could be pondering a coaching change barring unlikely success this fall.

Kirk Ferentz, Iowa — High

Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured head coach in college football, but his grip on the Hawkeyes’ job isn’t as firm as it once was. 

Ferentz has won with remarkable consistency, but as the face of the program, he’s been embroiled in multiple embarrassing lawsuits and has continued to defend and employ his son Brian as the team’s much-maligned OC. Iowa’s longtime AD Gary Barta recently stepped down, which throws another interesting wrench into the equation. 

He won’t get fired from Iowa, but if the Hawkeyes continue to be the butt of jokes offensively in 2023, Ferentz faces the possibility of getting pushed into retirement not on his own terms.

Mike Locksley, Maryland — Low

Mike Locksley has produced back-to-back bowl-winning seasons at Maryland, delivering Maryland its best year since 2010. 

Maryland took advantage of Michigan State’s regression last fall, and if Locksley can win a couple of toss-up games in 2023 (Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois), he could give the Terps their first eight-win regular season in 13 years.

Jim Harbaugh, Michigan – Medium 

Jim Harbaugh has it rolling at Michigan right now, beating Ohio State twice in a row and winning consecutive Big Ten titles. The Wolverines are recruiting at a higher clip now, too, and they bring back one of the most experienced teams in the country this fall, too. 

But because Michigan returns so much production (plus Harbaugh’s continued flirtation with the NFL), there’s pressure on the popular head coach to take his alma mater to the penthouse: As in at least make the national title game. The Wolverines need a playoff win after two disappointing performances against Georgia and TCU.

Mel Tucker, Michigan State — Extreme

Mel Tucker is just two years removed from parlaying a surprising 11-2 season into a $95 million contract, and yet after a really poor 2022 season (5-7 with a terrible defense and an ugly off-the-field incident at Michigan) and an offseason chalked with roster turnover, Tucker finds himself in a Jimbo Fisher-esque situation: Show real results or run the risk of angering enough deep-pocketed boosters who don’t care about the big buyout. 

The Spartans signed a decent recruiting class in 2023, and they’ve been a big player in the transfer portal, too (14 additions), but Tucker must navigate one of the toughest schedules in the country with an increasingly small margin of error to operate.

P.J. Fleck, Minnesota — Medium

Minnesota has rowed the boat to back-to-back 9-4 seasons, but P.J. Fleck faces more pressure than you’d think because of what is about to happen for the Gophers moving forward. 

Their hierarchy in the Big Ten is about to become much more difficult with the end of divisions and the introduction of USC and UCLA to the league. 

Minnesota has never made the Big Ten Championship and this fall might be its last opportunity to do so barring some unforeseen miracle season in the future.

Matt Rhule, Nebraska — Low

On the macro, there’s pressure on Matt Rhule to ultimately resurrect Nebraska’s moribund program, but not in Year 1. Rhule has been given a long rope to do what he does best — evaluate, develop and then win big by Year 3. 

If Rhule simply takes the Cornhuskers bowling this fall— something they haven’t done since 2016 — that would be a positive sign for the program to start trending in the right direction again.

Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern — Medium

Like Kirk Ferenz at Iowa, Pat Fitzgerald will not be fired by Northwestern, but the ex-Wildcats linebacker needs to start showing improved results now or else he made decide its time to coach some other than his alma mater. 

Fitzgerald has been in Evanston for 17 years, and while he has three 10-win seasons, Northwestern is just 7-29 combined record the last three full 12-game slates. He overhauled his staff this offseason in hopes of getting the most out of a roster that ranks near the bottom of all Power 5 schools in talent and returning production.

Ryan Day, Ohio State — High

Ryan Day faces extremely unusual pressure for a head coach that was a missed field goal away from playing for the national title game in 2022 and is 45-6 in his first four seasons as a head coach.  

Buckeye fans seem split between believing Day is overrated or under-appreciated. For a coach who’s been to the playoff three times, Day must end the two-year losing streak to Michigan to silence his naysayers. Ohio State is once again loaded this fall, but the Buckeyes will have a new QB and they play in the Big House at the end of November. 

Lose again — no matter what happens the rest of the regular season — and Day will face a fever-pitch of criticism unlike we’ve ever seen in college football for a coach who’s otherwise been so successful.

James Franklin, Penn State — Medium

After a pair of down seasons in 2020 and 2021 (11-11), the Nittany Lions rebounded with as many wins in 2022, going 11-2 with a Rose Bowl victory over Utah. 

They’re one of the darlings of the offseason, with some projecting PSU to win its first Big Ten title since 2016. But with hype machine comes added pressure, as Franklin is just 4-14 vs. Ohio State and Michigan. 

With a great roster and a navigable schedule, can he finally break through and get the Nittany Lions back to Indianapolis?

Ryan Walters, Purdue — Low

Ryan Walters was a strong hire by Purdue this offseason, and he’ll get time to build the program in his image after the successful Jeff Brohm era. He was a very successful DC at a young age, and now at 37, gets to lead Purdue’s transition into the new-looking Big Ten. 

While expectations are rather low for a program coming off a Big Ten West title, there’s the possibility for Walters to kickstart things quickly after assembling a solid staff and adding Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card.

Greg Schiano, Rutgers — Medium

Through three seasons, Greg Schiano has struggled to field a competitive team (just 12-22) in his return to Rutgers. Schiano remains mostly beloved by the brass in New Jersey, but he needs to start showing a real proof of concept or else patience could start to wear thin. 

Notably, it took him five seasons to produce a winning year during his initial stint with the Scarlet Knights, and Rutgers schedule will become a bit more palatable once divisions end. But that’s not until 2024. A brutal 2023 still awaits. 

Luke Fickell, Wisconsin — Low

After going 57-18 in six seasons at Cincinnati, Luke Fickell will be given ample time to put his fingerprints on Wisconsin’s program. He’s already upgraded the roster by aggressively using the transfer portal, and the Badgers are recruiting better for the future, too. 

Wisconsin could absolutely win the Big Ten West this fall in the final year of divisions, but Fickell is more focused on how to position Wisconsin to compete for future College Football Playoff spots.

2023 Pressure Rankings: Big Ten head coaches

1. Mel Tucker
2. Tom Allen
3. Kirk Ferentz
4. Ryan Day
5. Greg Schiano
6. Pat Fitzgerald
7. James Franklin
8. Jim Harbaugh
9. P.J. Fleck
10. Mike Locksley
11. Bret Bielema
12. Luke Fickell
13. Matt Rhule
14. Ryan Walters