2023 Quarterback Competitions: QB1 predictions at Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and elsewhere

Schools across the country open training camp this week, many of which are holding ongoing quarterback battles dating back to spring practice. 

Between now and Week 1, most teams will decide their QB1 for the 2023 season. That doesn’t mean the “loser” of the competition won’t have an impact this fall, but the “winner” will get the first crack to lock down the job. Some programs, namely Alabama, could drag their quarterback derby into the first few weeks of the season before settling on a starter. 

Here’s a look at some of the most notable quarterback competitions in college football, with a prediction at how the battle will shake out at the end of preseason practices. 

Alabama: Jalen Milroe vs. Ty Simpson vs. Tyler Buchner

The Tide’s quarterback competition could go in any number of directions this spring. What if Jalen Milroe shows more consistency while still possessing the same freaky traits he showcased against Arkansas and (at times) against Texas A&M? What if Simpson is a perfect fit in Tommy Rees’ play-action heavy scheme and lives up to his 5-star billing? Buchner is a wild card because we know more about him than the two other options but he lacks Milroe or Simpson’s upside. 

Ultimately, Rees and Saban seem likely to pick the guy who manages the offense best — i.e. avoids crippling turnovers and keeps the chains moving. And it’s hard to say who that is because both Milroe (three interceptions in just 53 career attempts) and Buchner (8:8 touchdowns-interception ratio in 10 career games) have been turnover-prone. It’s a fascinating battle because the rest of Alabama’s team is setup to win now. All three guys enter camp with a legitimate chance to become QB1. 

Prediction: Both Buchner and Milroe play in Week 1, Saban picks his guy before the date against Texas

Auburn: Robby Ashford vs. Payton Thorne 

Hugh Freeze wasn’t crazy about Auburn’s quarterback situation exiting spring practice, bringing in former Michigan State starter Payton Thorne to battle with Ashford in fall camp. Thorne doesn’t have a tremendous ceiling, but he did help the Spartans win 11 games in 2021 (3,200 passing yards and 27 touchdowns) and has ample game experience (2,679 yards and 19 touchdowns last season).

In all likelihood both with play, as Ashford is too dynamic of an athlete (709 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 2022) to simply hold the QB2 role. 

Prediction: Thorne wins the job, but Ashford has a regular role as a change-up QB option.

Florida: Graham Mertz vs. Jack Miller

Billy Napier has said throughout the offseason that Florida’s staff evaluated every quarterback in the portal in December and centered on Mertz, so the Wisconsin transfer has to win the job, right? Miller was bad in Florida’s blowout bowl loss to Oregon State (13-of-22 for 180 yards), but he was hardly put in ideal circumstances with an offense down a bunch of key contributors.

Mertz has never lived up to his recruiting billing (59% career completion), but perhaps working with Napier is the fresh start he needed. 

Prediction: Mertz

Georgia: Carson Beck vs. Brock Vandagriff

This is one of the easier battles to predict because A) There’s been buzz about Beck’s potential for months B) Kirby Smart was fairly transparent at SEC Media Days that Beck is the clubhouse leader entering fall camp. 

The junior served as Stetson Bennett’s backup last season (74.3% completion, 4-0 touchdown: interceptions, 8.9 yards per attempt) and showed significant improvement in the spring. Vandagriff will play a lot this fall, but unless there’s an injury in camp, this is Beck’s job. 

Prediction: Carson Beck

Ohio State: Kyle McCord vs. Devin Brown

The two former 5-star recruits were battling it out in the spring before Brown suffered a finger injury that required surgery. He missed the Buckeyes’ spring game, where McCord left the door open for Brown to still win the job after an inconsistent performance. 

Still, McCord served as CJ Stroud’s backup the last two seasons and has some playing time experience (including one career start) in 12 games (10.2 per attempt and 72.5% completion). It’s well-known that he was high school teammates with top target Marvin Harrison Jr., and he has a rapport with some of the other talented wideouts on the roster, too. 

Prediction: McCord gets pushed by Brown but earns the start vs. Indiana in Week 1

Ole Miss: Jaxson Dart vs. Spencer Sanders vs. Walker Howard

Dart started all 13 games for the Rebels in 2022, but after completing just 62% of his passes and throwing 11 picks, Lane Kiffin brought in multiple arms to compete for Ole Miss’ QB1 job this spring. While all three quarterbacks had big spring games, Dart responded well to the competition and emerged as the frontrunner heading into the fall.

Many assumed Sanders, a three-year starter at Oklahoma State, would use his graduate transfer option to find a new landing spot, but the senior is reportedly sticking at Ole Miss this fall. We’ll see. Dart should be better in his second season in Kiffin’s system, and will better playmakers surrounding him, the former 5-star USC transfer could be poised for a breakout year. 

Prediction: Dart

Oregon State: Ben Gulbranson vs. DJ Uiagalelei vs. Aiden Chiles

With the Beavers returning a stacked OL, a deep RB room and a solid defense, Jonathan Smith’s decision at quarterback could be the difference between Oregon State winning 10 games again (and being a darkhorse Pac-12 contender) or receding back to the middle of the conference. 

OSU ranked 104th nationally in passing with Gulbranson, who started 10 games but threw for just 1,400 yards and nine touchdowns. He’s in the mix, but this offseason the Beavers brought in Uiagalelei and signed Chiles, a 4-star recruit. Chiles was reportedly the most impressive QB on campus in the spring, while Uiagalelei, who wasn’t great last season at Clemson but still had 22 touchdowns, was more hit or miss. 

Prediction: Uiagalelei earns the first crack but don’t be surprised if Chiles becomes QB1 if Uiagalelei falters at all during the month of September

Texas A&M: Conner Weigman vs. Max Johnson

Jimbo Fisher continues to push the narrative that there’s a quarterback competition brewing at Texas A&M. Is that really true? Max Johnson had a nice spring and I don’t doubt that the Aggies like the luxury of having an experienced backup, but unless Weigman has a disastrous fall camp, he is the future and the present for the Aggies at quarterback.

He started Texas A&M’s last three games, including helping the Aggies upset No. 16 LSU in the regular-season finale (12-of-18 for 155 yards and two touchdowns).

Prediction: Weigman

UCLA: Ethan Garbers vs. Collin Schlee vs. Dante Moore

UCLA didn’t hold a spring game, and Chip Kelly has talked about taking the Bruins’ QB derby into Week 1. All three candidates have a case to be the starter for a team I think has Pac-12 title potential if everything clicks. Garbers has been in Kelly’s system for three years. Schlee has dual-threat abilities and started 11 games for Kent State in 2022. Moore is Kelly’s most ballyhooed signee ever. I’m on record that UCLA should hand the keys to its offense to the 5-star now, but will Kelly?

At Pac-12 Media Days, Kelly made it clear this remains an open competition and it won’t just be handed to Moore because he was a prized recruit. Garbers seems like the forgotten man because has DTR’s backup for so long and UCLA brought in three new QBs this offseason, but he might be the safest option to start 2023. 

Prediction: Garbers starts Week 1 but Moore is the guy once Pac-12 play opens in late September